Decent support this morning across the models for another mini heatwave starting about 6th.

Yup. Afterburners on for the second week of August. Still haven't discounted the possibility of August being the pick of the months this summer.

According to my recollection, we have had more good Septembers in my area in the last 20 years or so than good Augusts, Kieren. We all remember the fantastic August of 2003 but even before then, there was a run of not great Augusts in my area although August 2002 wasn't bad which followed an appalling June and July that year.

P.S IIRC, Brian's TWO summer forecast from the start of June suggested that the best weather this season would be most likely to occur in August rather than in the first couple of months, so we shall see.

I think if August is decent then this summer will go down as a pretty good one. Perhaps a time unlike winter where being south of the M4 is a benefit - it's been pretty dry, sunny and warm since late March down here, with only a few blips. I appreciate that those further north may have a different view.

I'd like the settled conditions to spread north next month as I am going to the Lake District and (hopefully) Wales.

And yes, I think it's likely the Met will change their tune. Ironic as they have been talking about signals for settled weather for weeks now, and they've only recently changed to an unsettled August, just before the models swing warmer 

August is the quintessential summer month.

Jetstream - after the current southerly burst, the jet resumes a generally westerly course though often fragmented and indeed almost non-existent around Sun 9th.

GFS - after Friday's southerly, back to a general weak westerly pattern  By Sun 9th a broad area of HP across UK though what looks like storm Isaias needs watching - it appears off New England on Tue 4th and drifts into mid-Atlantic with presumably amounts of moisture. LP develops near Iceland Tue 11th and runs SE to N Sea Fri 14th pushing the HP back W-wards and a cool spell but HP looks as if it will re-establish afterwards.

In contrast to GFS FAX embeds a distinct LP across S England on Monday 3rd, BBC last night said that their model which included this was in conflict with other unspecified models e.g. GFS, and FAX also has another deeper depression not shown on GFS  on the Atlantic at that time.

GEFS - quite cool around Mon 3rd with a little rain (less than yesterday) in the S and back to norm Thu 6th after which most runs on the warm side for about  a week but with greatly more variation between runs than yesterday. Scotland - a flatter temp profile with less variability but same trend and a little rain throughout. Variability presumably linked to Isaias.

ECM - more of a trough on Sat 1st as heat departs, less of an LP across the S on Mon 3rd, stronger W-lies to follow (a development of the FAX LP on the Atlantic?) morphing into another plume by Sun 9th - but Isaias doesn't show up at all! 

An interesting mixture and I'm left with the feeling that anything could happen!

Second week of August continues to look warm and settled. Wouldn't be surprised to see some agencies reshaping their mid term forecasts today.

Maybe I'm missing something, but from the GFS & ECM op runs I'm seeing at the moment, there still doesn't seem to be any clear and consistent indication of a more prolonged settled spell yet.

That's cos you should be looking at P2 of the GEFS 

Indeed - my nuts went a bit crispy when I saw that 

Look at this! Look at this. GFSP 06z for tomorrow.

(Charts may not always appear here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx)

Duplicate post

Very hot GEM 12z multiple 90f days.

Hot looking GEFS. Op was one of the cooler runs.

Evening probability forecasts suggest a v warm / hot period starting around Aug 5th & lasting until mid month. *Some* of the runs suggest records could be challenged. Note: This does NOT currently tie in with forecasts from some other agencies https://t.co/bO5dJrQpxg pic.twitter.com/uiU1WYLL1B

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) July 30, 2020