I always thought it used the GFS. And yes - August really is starting to shape up into something very interesting. 

A long way to go, but you have to say their is a relatively strong signal 

Great in-depth analysis as ever. 

Incidentally Scottish schools are back for the majority of August, which will no doubt coincide with the best of the weather.

There does seem to be an increasingly strong signal, across most of the models, for much warmer and more settled conditions as we approach the second week in August.

QED!

Good. Even though 100F is way too hot for my tastes, it’s not right that our record temperature was set in July (in a very localised spot as I recall) August is the quintessential summer month and wants the record back. 

If the overnight probability forecasts are on the money today's heat won't even be the starter. It will be the amuse-bouche. Suggestions that August could upend some of the forecasts and challenge records. But *still* time for change https://t.co/bO5dJrQpxg pic.twitter.com/kUWENrrbcQ

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) July 31, 2020

I did suggest August would buck the trend of recent years and be the best month by far of this summer.

However, although I was about right with temperatures for June and July, I was way off the mark for rainfall, which I felt would be way above average.

If August does pay off, I think the summer as a whole will still end up in thr just about OK category.

I would say it's already well into "OK" and a decent August would put it well into "good" - my abiding impression of 2020 so far is day after day of sunshine, very little rain and the only real annoyance being that it has often been quite windy.

OK the sunshine levels dropped off somewhat once we entered summer proper - in fact June was a little below average sunshine-wise and July looks like being around average, but rainfall was also below average and temperatures have been above average in June, a little below in July.

I accept spring was sunny and dry, but summer so far has been anything but.

As always subject to where you are in the country Rob.

For where I am, I would go with Moomin's analysis that if August manages to be nice and settled, then Summer would be OK.

iPhone app next week has:

Friday: 30C

Saturday: 32C

Sunday 31C

Something is really brewing

Perhaps a bit late with this today but a lot of the salient points have already been covered. Nevertheless, this is how the pressure dsitributions look:

GFS -after today's heat  moves E-wards, a spell of W-ly to Fri 7th (but not particularly cold or windy) an then then HP establishes with a S-ly flow assisted by what looks like the remains of hurricane Isaias (but models don't handle ex-hurricanes well, so a bit of caution here). Ridge of HP establishes Azores - Norway, looking warm to Sat 15th but continental LP affects the S from Wed 12th so perhaps some thundery weather there.

GEFS - has better agreement than yesterday (see chart posted above) with temps dipping and recovering swiftly by Wed 5th, and then hot (7 or 8C above norm for the S) through to Sat 15th; declining a little towards the end and one or two cool outliers including the op at end of run. Rain next Mon for the S; a few spikes later on in selected runs. Similar for Scotland though rain more on the 4th, not 3rd,  not quite as hot (4 or 5 C above norm) and less good agreement between runs.

ECM - starts the S-ly spell before Fri 7th with deeper LP on the Atlantic bringing up air from Spain; and the Azores - Norway ridge though present is further S so NW Scotland may continue cool

August is looking suspiciously like it'll ruin the summer for me

I've been thinking that it's been mercifully lacking in really hot days/oppressive nights this year, which recent Julys have delivered in spades, and then we flip to a prolonged very hot spell for August.

Days of temps in the high 20s or low/mid 30s and night time temps of 17c plus are not my cup of tea Fingers crossed if it verifies we'll get some heat lows drifting up to disrupt the heat somewhat and at least give a few storms to enjoy.

I'm sorry Moomin but your local account of June / July weatherwise is rubbish. I live not far from you (Chipping Norton way) and my experience of June / July has been much more akin to Rob K's account. I know this by virtue of how much cycling and garden watering my wife and I have been doing. We are both more in the fair weather cyclists camp and yet have racked up a fair few miles this summer so far.

Sorry again, could not let it go.

Good timing for a huge clear out on my garden on 8th and 9th August.  Look interesting from today 20C to 5C then back to 17C, maybe they upgrade to 20C again?

Exciting times. Quite a few runs above 20C. A few stragglers also, so not quite settled yet. Would be great to have another go at the record.

Mods. Can we put this thread in classic forum Sunday evening maybe, then start a new heat watch thread from then?

What was your Epsom shed record? What’s your new location like Jiries

GEM once again has 4 mid 30s days in a row starting on Friday.

Galley Common, near Nuneaton and was 33C in back garden which is very overgrown left by previous owner which make it cooler than normal, no shed here only storage extension.  I still use London graph because most times I am getting the temperatures almost match here only same to few degrees less than London.  Phone app say 34 in here while Epsom 37.  I miss that place and if have enough money save up i would move back there since prices are going down.  I do hope August will deliver a good summery month as the graphs say so after few days cooler weather.

Yet another cool outlier compared with GEFS and the other models. It’s been a pattern all summer. Even then we’re still looking at mid 20s maxes in the SE most of the time.