Staggeringly hot ECM. We'd be looking at records if it verifies. 40c?

10-day summary showing above average temps for next week but not lasting. Not a lot of rain away from the west.

GFS not as bullish as previously, a longer spell of westerlies (to Thu 6th) and a little flirting with local LP before ridge of HP establishes through to Wed 12th. LP then moves in from Atlantic; coolish with  centres off NI Sun 16th though SE still hanging on to dry and warm, just. Quite different from yesterday!

GEFS for the S , cool for a few days, then hot ca Wed 5th - Mon 10th dropping off to a bit above norm through to Wed 17th. Doesn't match the GFS at all in temps, but better agreement in almost no rain. Scotland no more than warm for 5th-10th and then fairly close to norm; small amounts of rain on and off

ECM takes a different view from Fri 7th with UK on the edge of massive HP over Baltic persisting with a plume (almost too broad a front to be called a plume).then hinting at LP in the Atlantic getting closer Mon 10th but much weaker than GFS

34°C based on this run. The next few days should prove very interesting.

Yes, the operational has been a bit iffy compared to the GEFS

34C raw would no doubt give at least 36C actual temperature. It was around 4C below the actual temperature yesterday.

It had 33c for yesterday so 100f again possible.

Yes indeed also the fact unlike yesterday's one day wonder this is more like 4 or 5 days of sustained heat.

What do our seasoned experts think we need to be seeing on the charts to get a 40C.

850s and Wind Direction etc?

Yep, I think it’s the low pressure coming into the west that’s causing the issues. We sort of need it to pump the air in.

More runs needed. A bit more scatter today than recently. But it would be great to have another super hot day to challenge the record.

I’m not a so-called expert, but I think for 40C, you’d need:

Uppers of 22C.

A dry preceding period.

A hot day prior to the “40C” day, with a very warm night.

Very hot conditions over France.

SSE / SE wind to import the heat, but not too strong.

Clear skies.

Warm SST’s.

Sufficient insolation, so would probably need to happen no later than mid August.

it feels like with every passing summer the chances of reaching 40c are getting gradually greater. It's only a matter of time surely.

I find it analogous to the first televised 147 break. I remember my excitement watching it as a child. But since then standards of play have improved so much that they're not that unusual any more.

Horrific stuff for those with breathing problems as it is, not to mention having to wear muzzles in shops. 

I was hoping we would get away with a retro 80s summer, but sadly not

I would be very surprised if it goes back to average quickly. The background signals are now more conducive to above average and settled conditions than at any point so far this summer.

GFS Op 06z Temps:

Thu: 30C

Fri: 33C

Saturday: 34C

Sunday: 31C

On this run, Friday and Saturday have good record 'potential again'.

Could get 4 consecutive 90F days there.

you also forgot a nearby heavily built up urban area, or large busy international airport. 😉

I wonder how long this next hot sequence will last. How many days in a row of 30C and over.

The fewer the better as far as I'm concerned. Roll on Autumn - mind you that doesn't seem to begin until October these days.

Or picturesque botanical garden / national fruit tree collection.

However, plenty of means across the GFS ENS options of high twenties plus, even later in the run.

Does look more spike than spread as far as the next projected hot spell goes, though.

would that be picturesque garden in near a heavily built up urban area.. like central London for example??