Remove ads from site

Bertwhistle
02 August 2020 18:04:39


 


The UKMO 12z at 144hrs also shows a bit of a cool off as far as I can see, as an area of HP moves in from the atlantic with a cooler NW airflow ahead of it.


Also, Stav Danaos of the BBC did say during the week ahead forecast at 1:15pm today that the current thinking is that temps would cool off a bit during next weekend. We shall see what transpires.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Sure he wasn't talking about the current weekend cooling? 


1.15 forecast isn't the week-ahead.


Also, Helen W just confirmed a hot weekend at the Beeb.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
David M Porter
02 August 2020 18:12:35


 


Sure he wasn't talking about the current weekend cooling? 


1.15 forecast isn't the week-ahead.


Also, Helen W just confirmed a hot weekend at the Beeb.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


The 1.15 forecast went up to and including Friday, just as used to happen on Countryfile back in the days when it was on at or just before lunchtime on Sundays. Also, I'm pretty sure Stav was referring to next weekend in his remarks at the end which I referred to and not the current one.


Let's see what ECM 12z produces in the coming three quarters on an hour or so.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
02 August 2020 18:43:04
Last few years, whenever there’s been an early cooling option the models have eventually taken it. So long as we stay settled I’m happy.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
David M Porter
02 August 2020 18:45:18

ECM 12z thus far seems to be siding with both UKMO and GEM in terms of a renewed cell of HP coming in from the atlantic during next weekend with a cooler & fresher airmass.


From what I am seeing in the models this evening, it looks as though Friday might be the best bet in terms of having another go at setting records, but there is still more than enough time for things to change in the models.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
David M Porter
02 August 2020 18:48:28

Last few years, whenever there’s been an early cooling option the models have eventually taken it. So long as we stay settled I’m happy.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Same here, Tim. Dry, settled and pleasantly warm weather is all I need at this time of year. Record-breaking heat has never been a pre-requisite for me.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
02 August 2020 18:54:17

Nice ECM heat never really leaves the South with another significant plume day 9. 21c 850s in the SE


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
02 August 2020 20:28:50


ECM 12z thus far seems to be siding with both UKMO and GEM in terms of a renewed cell of HP coming in from the atlantic during next weekend with a cooler & fresher airmass.


From what I am seeing in the models this evening, it looks as though Friday might be the best bet in terms of having another go at setting records, but there is still more than enough time for things to change in the models.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


The cooling next weekend has been showing up as a likely scenario but the timing is open to debate. It wouldn't surprise me if Saturday turned out to be the hottest day in the south. A reload of the heat next week also looks increasingly likely.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
David M Porter
02 August 2020 20:33:21


 


The cooling next weekend has been showing up as a likely scenario but the timing is open to debate. It wouldn't surprise me if Saturday turned out to be the hottest day in the south. A reload of the heat next week also looks increasingly likely.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


A bit of proper summer heat here would certainly be useful for getting my garden & grass dried out, Brian. Aside from Friday just gone and the brief hot spell circa 25th June, we have had virtually no notable heat in this part of the world since late May/early June.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Chichesterweatherfan2
02 August 2020 21:07:30


 


A bit of proper summer heat here would certainly be useful for getting my garden & grass dried out, Brian. Aside from Friday just gone and the brief hot spell circa 25th June, we have had virtually no notable heat in this part of the world since late May/early June.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


wow! I’m envious David! Our lawn here is parched and brown! And our allotment is a dust bowl...

White Meadows
02 August 2020 22:23:27
Amazing how met office 5 day & mid term written outlooks have been so far from the mark the last week or so. They were plugging for a cool August for so long. Quite laughable really. Half the team must still be furloughed.
Justin W
03 August 2020 06:55:59

Looks like a heat downgrade on the 0z output



Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Ally Pally Snowman
03 August 2020 07:08:07

Hot 850 wise ECM but an easterly sets in day 6 so its a case of June 2019 again.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Tim A
03 August 2020 07:09:31


Hot 850 wise ECM but an easterly sets in day 6 so its a case of June 2019 again.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


NW Scotland could see some record breaking temperatures if ECM + 216 hours occurs.


 


 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Justin W
03 August 2020 07:10:40


Hot 850 wise ECM but an easterly sets in day 6 so its a case of June 2019 again.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes. Maybe 30-32c on Saturday and Sunday. But not the silly stuff. Still, 32c is bad enough.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 August 2020 07:15:28

All attention on the end of this week. Will we get the downgrade already indicated early yesterday for Scotland? If the heat wave doesn't come off, there will a lot of red faces - and not from the temperature!


GFS  - Quite vigorous westerlies until a ridge of HP establishes Azores - Norway sat 8th but UK more on the edge of this  (and the associated plume)than yesterday; ridge persists but with col over UK at times until ca Wed 12th when the Norway end collapses and then disappears from UK Sun 16th though suggestions of a return in the day or two after that.


GEFS - very warm in the S until Wed 12th (though not as extreme as yesterday and the op is a cold outlier) - back to normal to Wed 19th with control this time being a cold outlier. Not much rain and that sporadic. Scotland similar profile but with less agreement between runs  and a few big spikes of rainfall esp Sat 9th.


ECM - holds that HP ridge further north so UK is still in the warm region, and also makes more of the slack low pressure between the HP centred iin Norway and Atlantic (to Thu 13th)


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Rob K
03 August 2020 07:31:18
Doesn’t look like we will be matching Friday’s heat any time soon but I’d rather have a long spell of settled weather and mid 20s than a quick burst of 35C followed by crud.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
03 August 2020 07:32:33

Doesn’t look like we will be matching Friday’s heat any time soon but I’d rather have a long spell of settled weather and mid 20s than a quick burst of 35C followed by crud.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Not sure about that. GFSP shows 36C this Friday. I still think Saturday is the day to watch.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
03 August 2020 07:45:02


 


Yes. Maybe 30-32c on Saturday and Sunday. But not the silly stuff. Still, 32c is bad enough.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


 


I know not good for you but Friday and Saturday still look like 35c days at least for the SE.


Arpege has 32c this morning for Thursday I'd expect it to show 35c later when Friday comes into view for it.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
03 August 2020 08:06:06
Looking at the GFS ensembles there are a few more runs showing the 20C 850s again this morning. They were dropped yesterday evening/overnight.

Will be interesting to see how the next 24hrs plays out
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
David M Porter
03 August 2020 08:18:28

Doesn’t look like we will be matching Friday’s heat any time soon but I’d rather have a long spell of settled weather and mid 20s than a quick burst of 35C followed by crud.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I think the set-up we had on Friday with a warm front to the north of Scotland and a cold front over Ireland created the conditions which were ideal for very high temperatures that day. I'm not so sure about a repeat performance at the end of this week, as yesterday the BBC forecast was predicting a cold front to move SE over England once the associated band of rain clears away from Scotland.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Bertwhistle
03 August 2020 08:20:55


 


Not sure about that. GFSP shows 36C this Friday. I still think Saturday is the day to watch.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


From that chart, the very high temperatures (34°C +) appear to be forecast over a wider area than last week, from Dorset to The Wash.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Sevendust
03 August 2020 09:30:29


 


From that chart, the very high temperatures (34°C +) appear to be forecast over a wider area than last week, from Dorset to The Wash.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


ECM op looks in furnace territory. I think end of week heat and reload are the form horse. Anything above 30'c is hot in my book

moomin75
03 August 2020 10:57:48

The GFS is very bizarre on 2m temps. Goes from high 20s/low 30s on Saturday in my neck of the woods to 16c on Sunday.
If that happens, I will eat my hat.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Bertwhistle
03 August 2020 11:05:05


The GFS is very bizarre on 2m temps. Goes from high 20s/low 30s on Saturday in my neck of the woods to 16c on Sunday.
If that happens, I will eat my hat.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


It's 'cos heavy rain is in that model with wbts between 16 and 18 degrees at 3pm. It's still a pretty warm air mass.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Bertwhistle
03 August 2020 11:07:17


 


ECM op looks in furnace territory. I think end of week heat and reload are the form horse. Anything above 30'c is hot in my book


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


It does- with 2 days of 20C uppers over Devon & Cornwall.


Adding: just looking at the GFS ENS options coming into view; fewer hot outcomes for a couple of days (roughly Sunday to Tuesday) but still with a mean in the S of about 26, before the isobar alignment adjusts again about Wednesday, allowing more of the 15C + 850s to reach us.


Ens mean up a couple of degrees as a result, with the majority favouring a return to heat.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Remove ads from site

Ads