It's completely different to the GFS so who knows. GFS can be very good at picking up pattern changes but it can also be completely rubbish at very short range. 

The ECM has a RAW temp of 36 next Tue. Remember that last Friday, the ECM raw temps were 4-5 C lower that the actual temp.

So there is no doubt 40C would be a possibility.

It is a plausible outcome for sure. My thoughts will be that it'll lie towards the top end of its ensembles but not a massive outlier.

Another cracking run in isolation though 

It's no surprise it is the most progressive out of all the models in squashing away our heat from the west. I don't think it'll be too far off but I suspect many will hold on to the heat on Saturday and I expect a better build of heat next week, more than the 12z GFS op is showing anyway.

Interesting, as I find it less reliable. This isn't one of those times when GFS spots a pattern change from miles out. It's just being its usual overly-progressive self, IMO.

That being said, it's not a bad run at all, just not as hot.

ECM is very hot tonight for the south.

Those making the short hop from Birmingham or Manchester to London on Saturday will think they've travelled to a different country !  

Next Tuesday appears to be the hottest day of the campaign with 37c (99f) maxing out for some. Add a couple of degrees to that of course.

and so as to not be accused of IMBY'sm there are also some pleasant temperatures on offer for parts of Western and Northern Scotland at times too. Here is next Tuesday.

Hey Gusty. Do you have the chart for Friday as well?

Yes, but a hot ECM mean. Which I would back any day over the hopeless GFS.

Thanks Steve!

Yes - the op was in the furnace.

I still suspect that we may see something of a reload as the heat remains very close next week, even on the "cooler" runs 

With that many ensembles, even a big outlier won’t skew a mean by much. And I’ve seen much bigger outliers than that.

Hopefully GFS will throw in the towel by the time the 0z runs are out.

It was a reasonable outlier (edit, as superteacher says it's not so huge that it would skew the mean too significantly).

What is encouraging is that the mean has the same second spike from the 10th of August. The op gets a bit giddy with the 850s by a couple of degrees from the top end of the pack and a more distant 4C from the mean. It's all good, though 

Q

i remember when 80F was a newsworthy temperature!

I don’t think 80 was ever newsworthy. 90F was always the benchmark for “Phew what a scorcher” headlines in the silly season. 

Generally though if GFS picks up a spoiler shortwave, be it in summer or winter, it is on the money. And 18Z GFS blows the heat away even earlier, it’s over by the early hours of Saturday and doesn’t come back. 

I can distinctly remember The Sun headlines saying “80F - Phew, What a Scorcher” back in the 80s. 90F was virtually unheard of in the 1980s - only happened on a handful of days in 1983 and 1989.

GFS also completely mis-modelled a shortwave only a couple of months ago. The entire suite was wrong at T96, so how anyone can have faith in it when every other model disagrees is a mystery.

If it has modelled the low correctly, and it is deeper than other models, then it'll likely be correct. It does like to overdo the intensity of low pressures in the N Atlantic though.

The op run isn't used in the calculation of the ensemble mean. The control run is, but that often varies from the op run.