Has Wettterzentrale crashed? The GFS 12z seems to have stopped updating.

Annoying. It’s there on other sites including TWO, but I do like the wetterzentrale visualisations. Shows what now looks like a possible form horse which is cool down on Sunday and Monday with secondary high, then warm up midweek as flabby low pushes up from France. Looks potentially quite thundery. GEM similar and UKMO hunting that way.

Well Wetterzentrale is still stuck but the GEFS is an upgrade from this morning. We've gone from a peak then rapid decline, through a peak then smaller second peak, to now a plateau with small peaks at either end. Need to lose those 4 cool straddlers now (plus the op, which doesn't show on the ens after 93hrs but I think was a cool wet outlier).

ECM often follows ICON IME.

ECM30 updated today and it's shockingly hot across much of W Europe. If it's on the money August will be going down as one of the all time classics in the the southern half of the UK. Could be different as you head northwest. 

Arpege 12z going for 37C this Friday.

The zoomed in ICON EU is now going for 34C this Friday. I'd pencilled slower progression of the cool air this weekend and Saturday as the day to watch. I'm now wondering whether Friday may be enough. 

Aperge was on the money last week. When do we start getting Arome coming through?

EC12 should be very hot for Wed/Thu next seek. 

Indeed 20c 850s back again in the SE.

ECM goes massively Pete Tong day 9 seems unlikely evolution from day 8. 

40C possible? 

ECM 12z goes for a northerly towards the end of the run.

Still much uncertainty about how things play out as we go into next week, by the looks of it.

I'd say 35c ish for the SE as it's an easterly.  

It has 34c for Friday remember it was 5c too low last Friday.

I wonder why they got it so wrong last week. I wonder if local conditions just pushed the temperature up. I hope it’s out again this week.

I want the record 

I think we will just miss the record but it should be in the top 5 hottest days ever . Pretty extraordinary to have two top 5 days with in a week of each other.

I wouldn't be surprised if a new record is set but I think we'll probably fall short. The other angle is people are now openly discussing when 40C will be recorded in the UK.

PS: ECM 12z wasn't the hottest in the ensemble.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=12&lg=850&lglocation=london

A top five in successive weeks will be astonishing even if we don’t get the overall record.

On that link Brian, which scale is correct. There are two shown on the right.

I think the left one which shows 0 to 22 but am not sure why it plotted 2 scales TBH.

Looking beyond the 'heat record' jizzfest for SE'ers, there's an interesting pattern emerging of pressure being persistently high just to the north of the British Isles. Models are mostly not showing a particularly dry spell for any prolonged period, sadly, with latest GFS, for instance, wanting to position a horrible low over the southern half of the UK, spinning fronts northwards, but the general set up reminds me of the first half of the 2018 summer, where persistent easterlies gave the best weather in the west.

I'd love a bone dry August from here on out. 

Seems plausible, the models have regularly shown a deep low arriving around Aug 13/14th and sticking around as that’s the time I’m heading north on my hols. 

Brutally hot UKMO this morning. 

Trust me, there are plenty of us for whom it's not a "jizzfest" - temperatures that high aren't fun with our buildings which really aren't designed for it! Thank goodness for a/c, is all I can say. (Similar temperatures abroad tend to be in areas used to the heat.)

Anyway, the Met Office's raw output continues to be warmer for longer than the other models are showing.

For example, MetO has the following highs for Heathrow from tomorrow:

28 / 37 / 33 / 30 / 31 / 33

The ECM, meanwhile, has the following instead: (https://weather.us/forecast/7284876-heathrow/ensemble/euro)

25 / 32 / 24 / 26 / 24 / 27

GFS is all over the place, of course, but the 0z shows:

27 / 32 / 27 / 23 / 23 / 26

ECM and GFS are broadly similar. The Met Office? Far, far warmer... It's as if it's running at a much higher resolution (like AROME etc), but AFAIK UKV doesn't go out that far!