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Phil G
07 August 2020 09:03:46


In marginally on-topic news, my purchase of land for a vineyard in Kent fell through this morning, right on the point of exchanging. Very annoying.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


That word fate can sometimes play a hand Tim. For whatever reason it was never meant to be, but something better may turn up in the short term.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 August 2020 09:08:38


 


Thanks Rob.


And just will we see the end of this warming due to our ‘cleaning’? Will we burn?
I’m all for clean air but the innocent intentions and consequences of achieving that may be more catastrophic for the planet than planned. With higher heat, this will also have an impact on health, sea level rises, worse storms etc.


Could it be that Greta & co are changing the planet and actually taking us towards the precipice at full speed ahead. Have they thought about the flipside of the impact of their actions also?


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


I'm sorry but not only is this off topic - which is supposed to be about regional climate trends here, but the irony of the argument is breathtaking: essentially like the drug dealer warning of the health effects of quitting, or an anti-vaxxer getting excited because a Covid vaccine might cause headaches.


BAU emissions would mean the earth warms 5 or more C this century, and we're all in deep deep trouble. The aerosol impact on global temperature is less than a degree at most, and the majority of that has worked its way out of the system since the 1960s. It's not even close to being a meaningful trade off.


At least we are now beyond the point where people still try to deny the existence of anthropogenic impacts on the climate. But that should mean we can have an interesting discussion about how the South and East have warmed and dried in summer while the North and West have stayed wet and dull. Otherwise this just ends up like the old climate forum (RIP) where everything no matter what the topic, descended into the same old repeating arguments.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 August 2020 09:09:40


 


That word fate can sometimes play a hand Tim. For whatever reason it was never meant to be, but something better may turn up in the short term.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


That's what I'm hoping. Need to wait until after the harvest when usually a bunch of plots come online.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
David M Porter
07 August 2020 10:41:04


 


I'm sorry but not only is this off topic - which is supposed to be about regional climate trends here, but the irony of the argument is breathtaking: essentially like the drug dealer warning of the health effects of quitting, or an anti-vaxxer getting excited because a Covid vaccine might cause headaches.


BAU emissions would mean the earth warms 5 or more C this century, and we're all in deep deep trouble. The aerosol impact on global temperature is less than a degree at most, and the majority of that has worked its way out of the system since the 1960s. It's not even close to being a meaningful trade off.


At least we are now beyond the point where people still try to deny the existence of anthropogenic impacts on the climate. But that should mean we can have an interesting discussion about how the South and East have warmed and dried in summer while the North and West have stayed wet and dull. Otherwise this just ends up like the old climate forum (RIP) where everything no matter what the topic, descended into the same old repeating arguments.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


It wouldn't be a decision for me to make as I'm not on the mods team nowadays, but it would sure be a real shame were this thread to turn into one that resembled many in the former climate forum and, as a result, possibly ended up being locked.


IMO, it would probably be for the best if we all concentrate on the topic in hand and tried to limit mentions of AGW in this thread as much as possible, to be honest.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Phil G
07 August 2020 10:44:17


 


I'm sorry but not only is this off topic - which is supposed to be about regional climate trends here, but the irony of the argument is breathtaking: essentially like the drug dealer warning of the health effects of quitting, or an anti-vaxxer getting excited because a Covid vaccine might cause headaches.


BAU emissions would mean the earth warms 5 or more C this century, and we're all in deep deep trouble. The aerosol impact on global temperature is less than a degree at most, and the majority of that has worked its way out of the system since the 1960s. It's not even close to being a meaningful trade off.


At least we are now beyond the point where people still try to deny the existence of anthropogenic impacts on the climate. But that should mean we can have an interesting discussion about how the South and East have warmed and dried in summer while the North and West have stayed wet and dull. Otherwise this just ends up like the old climate forum (RIP) where everything no matter what the topic, descended into the same old repeating arguments.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


For down here, I seem to remember as soon as lockdown was announced a high pressure system to the ENE became dominant for months providing our sunniest Spring, temps in the low twenties but you could still feel the edge on that easterly wind. Surely it’s the placement of high and low pressure which is key though?


Again, I can only comment for down here but the weather has actually been changing since the mid seventies. Gone are the fogs, gone are the overnight summer thunderstorms, winters are more miss than hit, we always had a two week cold spell in the sixties where fenland skating was also a gimme at the time. Even the Dutch have lost their canal ice skating in recent years.


I think we are more under the influence of high pressure belts to the south, more useable summers, milder and sometimes wetter winters as the jet stream pushes further south a bit.


I expect we will be having another conversation in the next five years about the weather in that period. I expect from the bit you don’t want to discuss however, heating created by man will be firmly on the agenda.


 

Gandalf The White
07 August 2020 16:13:13


 


That seems rather unfair. It is pretty well established that the "global dimming" that was seen last century due to sulfate emissions etc has gone into decline. That global dimming did indeed mask some of the background warming, so it is quite right that as sulfate levels drop, some of the "hidden" warming will become evident, thus increasing the rate of warming.


 


eg see this BBC report: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_trans.shtml


"We thought we live in a global warming world, but this is actually not right. We lived in a global warming plus a Global Dimming world, and now we are taking out Global Dimming. So we end up with the global warming world, which will be much worse than we thought it will be, much hotter." - that quote is from Dr Beate Liepert, who is not some crank or AGW denier, she is an IPCC contributor.


Sulfate is important, that is the rationale behind the idea of geoengineering: deliberately spraying sulfate into the troposphere to reflect back some sunlight.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Not unfair at all. Phil's accusation was that the likes of Greta and the climate activists are responsible for making the warming worse.


The issue of reduced 'global dimming' adding to warming isn't in doubt. But I would have thought that reducing the level of pollution was to be commended; the issue is that we just keep pumping GHGs into the atmosphere and that is what the campaigning is about; and rightly so.


As you know, we have discussed geoengineeering extensively over the years. The problem is that there are winners and losers and adding another anthro forcing into the mix adds another unknown to a complex equation. Plus, it might be seen as an excuse to slow down the rate of decarbonisation, which certainly isn't what's wanted.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
07 August 2020 16:16:06


 


No come on. I provided an answer so rather than you ask another question, if you could provide your take on things and we’ll see how this stacks up.


You scrutinised me, let’s scrutinise you for a change.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Your post said that it was the likes of Greta and the climate activists who were responsible for the warming due to reduced global dimming.  That is the point with which I took issue as it is clearly not true.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 August 2020 16:24:09
It would be interesting to see the stats on summer thunderstorms. There’s been a lot of talk of these having reduced and that’s certainly how it feels anecdotally.

But is this just selective memory? By our nature we remember the exciting weather events and forget the boring periods.

I shall head to Google to take a look.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2020 17:00:02

It would be interesting to see the stats on summer thunderstorms. There’s been a lot of talk of these having reduced and that’s certainly how it feels anecdotally.

But is this just selective memory? By our nature we remember the exciting weather events and forget the boring periods.

I shall head to Google to take a look.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


I will add my anecdotal evidence in support of the proposition that summer thunderstorms are rarer nowadays.  It seems ages since we had a good flash and bang show around here.


I'd be interested to know what stats can be found to confirm or contradict this.


 

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2020 17:01:48

It would be interesting to see the stats on summer thunderstorms. There’s been a lot of talk of these having reduced and that’s certainly how it feels anecdotally.

But is this just selective memory? By our nature we remember the exciting weather events and forget the boring periods.

I shall head to Google to take a look.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Sorry to hear about the vineyard purchase falling through. These things happen for whatever reason.


Mark Diacono planted olives in Devon in 2006 I think but that was a fail because of the wet soil conditions. They tolerate cold and dry but not cold and wet.


I love a good thunderstorm but last summer was a fail on that front and up to this evening not a flash or rumble so far this year. Other parts of the UK seem to have done quite well though from what I've read here on TWO.


I'm hoping Tuesday/Wednesday next week might be able to deliver a French import but I won't hold my breath waiting to see one coming across the Channel. It's quite visual spectacle of course if the timing is right and IF you can reach a vantage point at dusk or in the night it's amazing.


Nick

Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Devonian
07 August 2020 17:09:58


 


I'm sorry but not only is this off topic - which is supposed to be about regional climate trends here, but the irony of the argument is breathtaking: essentially like the drug dealer warning of the health effects of quitting, or an anti-vaxxer getting excited because a Covid vaccine might cause headaches.


BAU emissions would mean the earth warms 5 or more C this century, and we're all in deep deep trouble. The aerosol impact on global temperature is less than a degree at most, and the majority of that has worked its way out of the system since the 1960s. It's not even close to being a meaningful trade off.


At least we are now beyond the point where people still try to deny the existence of anthropogenic impacts on the climate. But that should mean we can have an interesting discussion about how the South and East have warmed and dried in summer while the North and West have stayed wet and dull. Otherwise this just ends up like the old climate forum (RIP) where everything no matter what the topic, descended into the same old repeating arguments.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


Spot on - as usual . Highlighted bit, I still (forlornly I think) hope it will be 2-4C.


What a mess the majority of humanity is making of this wonderful planet.

Rob K
08 August 2020 08:02:45
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/38588-the-13th-of-june-enigma/ 

It’s nothing to do with the main subject of the thread (the bizarre anomaly that 13 June has never once recorded 30C, alone in all days of summer), but the point is made that in the past the maximum temperature records seemed to be spread all over the country, whereas in the past 30-40 years they have almost without exception been in the southeast corner.

A look at the Torro list of daily maxima would seem to confirm this.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
lanky
08 August 2020 09:00:02
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/38588-the-13th-of-june-enigma/ 

It’s nothing to do with the main subject of the thread (the bizarre anomaly that 13 June has never once recorded 30C, alone in all days of summer), but the point is made that in the past the maximum temperature records seemed to be spread all over the country, whereas in the past 30-40 years they have almost without exception been in the southeast corner.

A look at the Torro list of daily maxima would seem to confirm this.


As this thread has already discussed, the SE quarter of the country has warmed considerably more than the rest. In some cases by just over 2C whereas much of the rest is between 1 and 1.5C


When records are being broken then we are at the very extreme right hand side of the Bell Curve so an extra 1C warming in the SE makes a big difference to the odds of getting the record in that part of the world


I haven't done the maths but it is about the probability of getting a value N sigmas (standard deviations) away from the mean


 

Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Crepuscular Ray
09 August 2020 15:27:14
The difference today between the favoured SE and the rest of the UK is marked. Over 30 C in the SE but cooler than average over Eastern England and Scotland. Only 17 C here and a force 5 NE wind making it feel chilly!
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
johncs2016
09 August 2020 17:52:38

The difference today between the favoured SE and the rest of the UK is marked. Over 30 C in the SE but cooler than average over Eastern England and Scotland. Only 17 C here and a force 5 NE wind making it feel chilly!

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


All the more reason as well, for Richard from Aberdeen to be even more annoyed than normal as the local lockdown in his area which has just been imposed, means that he can't go anywhere to escape that weather in his part of the world which he often refers to as "vile" (before then, he was at leas travel to other locations such as Fife).


 

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Retron
06 September 2024 10:23:58
Bringing this up to date, as the UK - or rather a small part of it - now officially has a Mediterranean climate. The models have long since suggested this was going to happen (even 35 years it was being talked about), and now it has.

Behold, the very latest Koppen maps of the UK, based on Met Office HadUK data. If you look at 30-year periods we're still bathed in cfb in the south, the traditional maritime climate classification, but in the last decade or so we've started to see csb encroach in the far SE - the very definition of a Mediterranean climate. There have been the odd very isolated pockets before, but this is different - like rust eating away at a car, it's only going to spread.

I've uploaded a high-resolution version of the maps, taken from a report by Wilson and Pescott of the University of York, as published in the Journal of Applied Ecology (picture used under the CC BY license).

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/koppen.jpg 
UserPostedImage

Note that the 2021 onwards maps are predictions based on the highest future pathway, the change is likely to be slower than they show. Nonetheless, the change HAS started... and while it's unlikely to be a Med climate here, it's getting closer every day.

(None of this will come as a surprise to those of us in Kent, Sussex and Essex, as it's been remarked on several times - even Brian, further afield, mentioned that dry periods are now commonplace in summer in the south, as we've seen this year!

Here's a link to the study, as published in the Journal of Applied Ecology last year.
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/202488/3/Journal_of_Applied_Ecology_2023_Wilson.pdf 

EDIT: And on a personal level, I actually feel a bit mournful. Why? It means the climate of my childhood, those lovely snowy winters, the lush, verdant and generally non-humid summers, really *have* gone - and though there may still be the odd one to come, we're experiencing things changing at a frankly frightening rate. Today's kids will look on our stories of icicles and 20ft snowdrifts as things of legend!
Leysdown, north Kent
LeedsLad123
06 September 2024 10:56:57

Bringing this up to date, as the UK - or rather a small part of it - now officially has a Mediterranean climate. The models have long since suggested this was going to happen (even 35 years it was being talked about), and now it has.

Behold, the very latest Koppen maps of the UK, based on Met Office HadUK data. If you look at 30-year periods we're still bathed in cfb in the south, the traditional maritime climate classification, but in the last decade or so we've started to see csb encroach in the far SE - the very definition of a Mediterranean climate. There have been the odd very isolated pockets before, but this is different - like rust eating away at a car, it's only going to spread.

I've uploaded a high-resolution version of the maps, taken from a report by Wilson and Pescott of the University of York, as published in the Journal of Applied Ecology (picture used under the CC BY license).

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/koppen.jpg 
UserPostedImage

Note that the 2021 onwards maps are predictions based on the highest future pathway, the change is likely to be slower than they show. Nonetheless, the change HAS started... and while it's unlikely to be a Med climate here, it's getting closer every day.

(None of this will come as a surprise to those of us in Kent, Sussex and Essex, as it's been remarked on several times - even Brian, further afield, mentioned that dry periods are now commonplace in summer in the south, as we've seen this year!

Here's a link to the study, as published in the Journal of Applied Ecology last year.
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/202488/3/Journal_of_Applied_Ecology_2023_Wilson.pdf 

EDIT: And on a personal level, I actually feel a bit mournful. Why? It means the climate of my childhood, those lovely snowy winters, the lush, verdant and generally non-humid summers, really *have* gone - and though there may still be the odd one to come, we're experiencing things changing at a frankly frightening rate. Today's kids will look on our stories of icicles and 20ft snowdrifts as things of legend!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


I don't think we can say that anywhere in the UK has a Mediterranean climate until the current 30-year period shows that to be the case. The 2001-2030 climate averages aren't far off now and I doubt anywhere in the UK will qualify, and probably won't for a while yet.

It's also worth mentioning that Mediterranean climates are defined primarily by the difference between winter rainfall and summer rainfall, so the most likely contenders for Mediterranean status will be along southern coastal strip where winters tend to be quite wet but summers more noticeably dry - and I would actually suggest that places on the Devon coast like Teignmouth are currently the closest to meeting Mediterranean climate criteria. 
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Retron
06 September 2024 11:05:06

I don't think we can say that anywhere in the UK has a Mediterranean climate until the current 30-year period shows that to be the case. The 2001-2030 climate averages aren't far off now and I doubt anywhere in the UK will qualify, and probably won't for a while yet.

It's also worth mentioning that Mediterranean climates are defined primarily by the difference between winter rainfall and summer rainfall, so the most likely contenders for Mediterranean status will be along southern coastal strip where winters tend to be quite wet but summers more noticeably dry - and I would actually suggest that places on the Devon coast like Teignmouth are currently the closest to meeting Mediterranean climate criteria. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


True enough that we'll have to wait for the next 30-year period to see (the 91-20 map available on koppen.earth still has cfb for all of the SE, but we know at least 11 years of that are likely to support csb in places), but like that rust analogy once it's started it's not going to stop. Note too that the period they used (2010-19) included the very cold spells of winter 09/10 (which was in January 10) and of course the Dec 2010 cold spell.

And yes, that csb climatic zone which is now encroaching into the SE is a true Mediterranean zone - temperate, dry summer, warm summer, as per the legend at the bottom of that screenshot.

Areas further west, e.g. the Devon example, still get more rainfall, IIRC, and it's spread more evenly. It was Brian's mention the other day that you can use the calendar to work out when it's likely to be dry down here that made me dig a bit - as he's right, we do more often than not get a prolonged mostly dry spell here. Last year actually stood out as we had regular rain through all of the summer, just as we used to do back in the 80s/90s.

1976 was, I suggest, a very early outlier of what was to come!
Leysdown, north Kent
MRazzell
06 September 2024 12:36:40

I don't think we can say that anywhere in the UK has a Mediterranean climate until the current 30-year period shows that to be the case. The 2001-2030 climate averages aren't far off now and I doubt anywhere in the UK will qualify, and probably won't for a while yet.

It's also worth mentioning that Mediterranean climates are defined primarily by the difference between winter rainfall and summer rainfall, so the most likely contenders for Mediterranean status will be along southern coastal strip where winters tend to be quite wet but summers more noticeably dry - and I would actually suggest that places on the Devon coast like Teignmouth are currently the closest to meeting Mediterranean climate criteria. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


Agree. The weather patterns here in the South and SE, whilst at times feeling mediterranean, are nowhere near consistent enough to be categorised as that. In fact, i don't believe our region could ever truly be classified as mediterranean because of the influence of the jet stream. Perhaps pockets out in the very far east reaches of the country?

The problem with the Koppen clasification method is its becoming increasingly outdated as a consequence of the new weather patterns and climates that are developing as a result of global warming. A new classification is needed.

Matt.
Retron
06 September 2024 12:51:41

Agree. The weather patterns here in the South and SE, whilst at times feeling mediterranean, are nowhere near consistent enough to be categorised as that. In fact, i don't believe our region could ever truly be classified as mediterranean because of the influence of the jet stream. Perhaps pockets out in the very far east reaches of the country?

The problem with the Koppen clasification method is its becoming increasingly outdated as a consequence of the new weather patterns and climates that are developing as a result of global warming. A new classification is needed.

Originally Posted by: MRazzell 


I'd disagree, of course; over the past 10 years we've had long dry spells in the summer most years - hence we're wandering ever closer to the dry edge of cfb. Regarding the jet, the long-term pattern is a shift northwards, and we've already seen that pressure is rising across much of Europe in its wake (again, Brian has posted charts showing this).

The classifications are just fine and don't need changing - they cover the basics, wet, dry, hot, cold, dry seasons, wet all year - and all that's happening is the various areas are moving around as the climate shifts, and that areas once firmly in the middle of one category are now getting closer to the border with another one - as the chart I posted shows.

The numerous articles back in the day (when we started to get droughts, back in the 90s), were of course comparing the Med as it was then, rather than it is now. I'm sure we all remember them - going on about how snow would become rarer (which it has), how planting would need to be altered to cope with dry weather (and it does need altering).

We've already, for example, seen that London is now warmer than Paris was in 61-90 days, and so it continues.

It's fascinating, even if it is, as I say, a bit depressing when you realise our climate of even 30 years ago is very unlikely to ever return.

Make the most of any snow, I say, and make the most of it if you're lucky enough to have green grass all year round and trees that aren't shedding their leaves through water stress in early September!
Leysdown, north Kent
LeedsLad123
06 September 2024 12:56:25

True enough that we'll have to wait for the next 30-year period to see (the 91-20 map available on koppen.earth still has cfb for all of the SE, but we know at least 11 years of that are likely to support csb in places), but like that rust analogy once it's started it's not going to stop. Note too that the period they used (2010-19) included the very cold spells of winter 09/10 (which was in January 10) and of course the Dec 2010 cold spell.

And yes, that csb climatic zone which is now encroaching into the SE is a true Mediterranean zone - temperate, dry summer, warm summer, as per the legend at the bottom of that screenshot.

Areas further west, e.g. the Devon example, still get more rainfall, IIRC, and it's spread more evenly. It was Brian's mention the other day that you can use the calendar to work out when it's likely to be dry down here that made me dig a bit - as he's right, we do more often than not get a prolonged mostly dry spell here. Last year actually stood out as we had regular rain through all of the summer, just as we used to do back in the 80s/90s.

1976 was, I suggest, a very early outlier of what was to come!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Coastal areas further west in Dorset and Devon have a bigger difference between summer and winter rainfall than Kent, which is why I say Teignmouth (in Devon) is probably the place in the UK closest to being a Mediterranean climate currently. On average, Teignmouth gets 46mm of rain in July vs 101mm in December, while somewhere like Faversham gets 43mm in July and 71mm in December. Likewise Bournemouth on the Dorset coast gets 49mm in July and 104mm in December, so again a much more pronounced difference.

I think if anywhere in the UK is going to become a Mediterranean climate, it will be places like Teignmouth and Bournemouth before anywhere in Kent based solely on the fact that they have much wetter winters than Kent but similarly dry summers.

Places like Essex are even further away from becoming a Mediterranean climate because they don't see much if any difference between summer and winter rainfall - Southend gets 48mm in December and 41mm in July, so very little difference. Essex is relatively dry all year.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Retron
06 September 2024 13:06:38

Coastal areas further west in Dorset and Devon have a bigger difference between summer and winter rainfall than Kent, which is why I say Teignmouth (in Devon) is probably the place in the UK closest to being a Mediterranean climate currently. On average, Teignmouth gets 46mm of rain in July vs 101mm in December, while somewhere like Faversham gets 43mm in July and 71mm in December. Likewise Bournemouth on the Dorset coast gets 49mm in July and 104mm in December. 

I think if anywhere in the UK is going to become a Mediterranean climate, it will be places like Teignmouth and Bournemouth before anywhere in Kent based solely on the fact that they have much wetter winters than Kent but similarly dry summers.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


The problem with those figures is that they're very spikey and they hide important detail (as they would, being 30-year means).

I can't say whether that applies for the Westcountry, but it's common here to get virtually nothing in a month one year, then a deluge thanks to heavy convective rainfall the next. It's now unusual here to get even rainfall through the summer period (May to September), more often than not there'll be a multi-week period with next to no rainfall. That's why it was remarkable last year to see the grass stay vibrant green all summer long - the clay soils here dry out quickly, and within 3 weeks of no rainfall the grass will yellow. In the last 10 years there's been noticeably more stress on the trees, too, with early leaf drop (as we're seeing now) becoming a feature.

Dungeness, incidentally (which is close to the Med colourings in the latest charts) sells itself on being a desert. It isn't, but that doesn't stop them!

https://wildabouthere.com/dungeness-britains-only-desert/ 

EDIT: Having had a look at a few places on the Med - Nice, Marseilles, Barcelona - it's interesting to see that their Julies, the driest month, have become wetter in the last 10 years (i.e. 91-20 compared to 81-10 averages). There's still a marked dip in July, mind you, and that's something which is present but much less pronounced here. (Do bear in mind my spikey comments, though, I don't know whether that applies to places like Nice either!)
Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
06 September 2024 13:11:29



Make the most of any snow, I say, and make the most of it if you're lucky enough to have green grass all year round and trees that aren't shedding their leaves through water stress in early September!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Anecdotally, it also seems to me that difference between the winter climate to the south of London and the Chilterns has increased in recent decades. Whilst my locality is obviously light years away from being a winter nirvana, we at least still see accumulating (albeit often wet and transient) snow most winters. How long that will be the case for is another question. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
LeedsLad123
06 September 2024 13:18:10
With all that said and done, if you actually look at the different 30-year climatic periods, you'll see that average rainfall has not gone down - indeed in many cases it's gone up.
Looking at Faversham for example: for the 1961-1990 period they got 33mm on average in July, but for the 1991-2020 period that increased to 43mm. Average annual rainfall overall increased from 647mm to  675mm.
If the 2001-2030 period doesn't show a decline in average rainfall (or more accurately a decline in average summer rainfall) then I will remain sceptical that anywhere in the UK will become a Mediterranean climate in our lifetimes. 
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
+1
Chunky Pea
06 September 2024 13:23:33
I think that until the broader north Atlantic cools down, those winter and summers of old will never happen. Warm oceans = increased atmosphere humidity = reduced daily temp range. The only time the Atlantic cooled down to any notable  (but sadly, short lived) degree in the last 10 years was after the wild Atlantic winter of 2013 - 2014, and this, in itself, was driven by the powerfully cold eastern US winter that year, which are becoming all the more rarer as well. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022

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