16-day outlook continues to show a cool spell in a week's time

GFS Current LP intensifying and moving up the W coast before moving to N Norway Mon 24th and then a W-ly spell with alternating LP and ridges of HP. Perhaps signs of a more persistent HP starting Thu 3rd.

GEFS briefly warm then cool Mon 24th recovering to norm and staying there but with much scatter esp  in Scotland from the start and everywhere after Mon 31st. Wet now, some rain on and off from Wed 26th in S, rather more rain in the N esp around Wed 26th.

ECM agrees with GFS but generally keeps pressure higher during the W-ly spell

Summer is over - though will probably return in September. Indian Summer anyone?

The last September I can recall as being generally settled in my neck of the woods was 2015, and that month in 2014 was pretty good here too. The last three or four Septembers have been rather mixed where I live.

A good one this year would be very welcome though!

GFS - Storm Ellen creating havoc off W coast before moving to Norwegian Sea Mon 24th; then W-ly regime alternating LP & HP ridges, the former Wed 26th and Mon 31st, HP ridges in between after which more SW-ly and warmer and dry at least for SE.

GEFS temps around the norm but a lot of scatter later on. op & control aong he warmenst ca Wed 2nd Sep. Most chance of rain around Tue/Wed 25th/26th otherwise quite dry in S, more occasional rain in N.

ECM - stronger ridge of HP Thu 27th and persisting at least a few days

GEFS 12z London 2m max temperature spread. (Green line is trend) Darker red indicates more than one run on that point. (New tool to plot these will be on TWO either tomorrow or Sat) pic.twitter.com/xJ0I7WKsLO

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) August 20, 2020

Conformist 'fall in!' from the GFS ENS members this afternoon, if you exclude the creative ones at the start of the new month.

I think I've seen this before as the TS season energises over the Atlantic at this time of year- almost a resignation to 'anything could happen'. 

Looks like we are in a conveyor belt of low pressure systems pounding at our door for the next week.

Jetstream running across the UK more or less consistently from the W throughout but with some loops in it to the S esp Fris 29th and 4th.

GFS - current storm moving away, new LP over Scotland Wed 26th, HP then almost establishes itself , nibbled at by LP from the SE Sun 30th and  stronger LP moving in from NW from Wed 2nd and settling over the N Sea 

GEFS - temps close to mean though often on the cool side esp around Weds 23rd and 30th after which anything could happen. More rain about in the S the than yesterday's forecast esp 23rd. 29th and 4th to match jetstream, in the N not such high peaks but more frequent.

ECM - not such a broad area of HP after Wed 26th but begins to break down later and from the W on Mon 31st

Keep trying.

The GEFS scatter charts are still in development but a rough cut is available here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com//premium/gefs-graphs.aspx

Notes:

1) You can tap / click on the individual points to check the values. 

2) Opacity is used to indicate the number of overlapping values, so the darker the shading the more runs there are for a given value 

Interesting - and a great addition to the range! But where's the extra hour in the day I need to look at them all

You will get an extra hour in the day at the end of October. Howzat?

This morning's GFS starts off like yesterday's with storm Ellen moving off NE-wards but then presents LP on Wed 26th as much deeper (995 mb over Scottish borders - though MetO thinks that the bad weather will arrive on Tue). That leaves a N-ly flow while a ridge of HP moves in from the W, at its best on Mon 31st (Wow! BH in England too!) But soon breaking down as LP moves into Scotland the following day. Another ridge of HP Sat 5th before another Atlantic LP - could get quite warm with a S-ly flow in advance of this one.

GEFS temps average or cool (coolest around Sat 29th) until Tue 1st when mean of runs close to norm but quite a number of very warm runs in the mix. Less rain nationally than shown yesterday, what there is, is most likely 25th & 29th in S, 26th & 1st in Scotland.

ECM similar to GFS though LP on Wed arrives a bit earlier, less deep and moves through quickly

FAX also favours Tue for the LP arriving but is in no hurry to move it on; it sticks in the N Sea with gales for the E coast

Standard fare in the Vale of Belvoir, then. The microclimate there means it has dire weather 24/7/365.

I know this from visiting TWO.

True! Although it's interesting from October all four CFS models go for a weakened zonal flow and some even in reverse.

I know above you are talking about 2-3 months at a time, but on the whole would you say our weather was more mobile now Tim? I think it was you that raised the difference between the SE and NW becoming wider.

Personally I feel our weather has been in a state of change since the seventies, and it still hasn’t settled down yet. Really shows on our location how changeable our weather can be.
No doubt there are more extremes though whether that’s through heat, rainfall, and a there’s lack of cold to what we used to get. A northerly in Winter ain’t what it used to be!
Even the fogs have largely gone, cleaner air?

GEFS graph feature is now live. Currently enables you to plot scatter charts. They're a good way of quickly seeing  clustering and whether big outliers are pulling up the mean.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-graphs.aspx

Looks like Autumn is settling in early according to GFS, ECMWF & METO.

(Mind you could still get heatwave in October)

January more likely. 

That’s definitely a change clearly influenced by cleaner air. We just don’t get fog like we used to.

Looking at the latest model output, we could have another significant low pressure system coming in during the middle part of next week so given that we have just had Storm Ellen, I wonder what the chances are of next week's system being officially named as Storm Francis which is the next name in last year's list of storm names (which I am assuming, will continue to be in use until this year's storm list is released at the beginning of September).

Utter nonsense, more false statement trolling. If my posts so upset you so much then perhaps you may wish to leave the platform? Just a thought.