We used to get a lot more fog pre 62 in fact many weather folk quote Dec 1962 “last old style” London smog.

The winter of 2010–11 was a weather event that brought heavy snowfalls, record low temperatures, travel chaos and school disruption to the islands of Great Britain and Ireland. It included the United Kingdom's coldest December since Met Office records began in 1910, with a mean temperature of -1 °C, breaking the previous record of 0.1 °C in December 1981. Also it was the second-coldest December in the narrower Central England Temperature (CET) record series which began in 1659, falling 0.1 °C short of the all-time record set in 1890.[2] Although data has never officially been compiled, December 2010 is thought to be colder than December 1890 over the United Kingdom as a whole, as Scotland was up to 2 °C warmer than England. Hence, it is thought to be the coldest December across the UK as a whole since before 1659.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_2010%E2%80%9311_in_Great_Britain_and_Ireland

 

December 2010 was unprecedented to the extent that even the Little Ice Age probably never saw a December as cold.

How people on here can then spend the next ten years arguing with a straight face that the UK no longer has winters as cold as the past is beyond me. 

 

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A decent high to the NE quickly gets pushed away on this run after building to 1035 and looking like it could sink to Scandi.

Yes, like an old gramophone record, the Azores High pokes it's nose in, the jet fires up over it and the block to the NE is only going to go in one direction.

Early days this Winter but it seems to have started with a familiar pattern. Something tells me we might be in for a few surprises down the line though. All to play for.

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Jetstream this morning forecast to run strongly across the UK and down to SE Europe to Tue 24th before developing a loop which breaks it up into a N and a S component. By Sat 28th the S branch is weakening to the S of Spain while the N branch has formed a closed circulation N of Norway. Normal W-ly flow soon resumes with a single main stream across France and on to Italy/Greece, continuing to Mon 7th.

GFS shows W-ly pattern continuing for now but weakening and after Wed 25th the Atlantic takes a break, with weak LPs first over the Baltic Fri 27th - Mon 30th and SW England Wed 2nd. Major depressions then appear in E Atlantic -965 mb S of Iceland Sat 5th, 960 mb N Ireland Mon 7th -  though not progressive as blocked by HP over NE Scandi.

GEFS temps not far from seasonal norm;  mild - cool - mild to Thu 26th, then a long period a little below norm with runs, while not agreeing, avoiding extremes. A splash around Mon 24th (not for SE), dry-ish for a while in England, more rain everywhere but esp in W on and after Sun 29th

ECM agrees with GFS about he Atlantic break but produces a ridge of HP over England Fri 27th extending to Norway sun 29th but then back to broad W-ly pattern. 

 

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This mornings charts show a little more hope for a blocked outlook. However the UK is just too far west to feel its direct influence.

Instead weather fronts are not necessarily steam rolling over the uk, instead the uk is in that weird graveyard zone, where weather fronts and Lows go to die.

So its not the solution we want, but its a step in the right direction....

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06z GFS has some hope just need to low to deepen over the med and a bit of WAA to feed the high

It's about perception to a large degree. In December 2010 the canal didn't freeze solid here yet (I'm told) it did in the 80s on more than one occasion. I've also been told that the River Foss wasn't frozen solid enough to walk on in December 2010, however, as a kid I can remember walking on it with my dad and chiselling through the ice to measure its thickness.  

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Yet it was still the coldest December in a century.

A messy 06z GFS op run so far. Nothing too dry, wet, cold, mild so far. Lots of high pressure to the east but details seem to be changing with each run. The end result could vary greatly depending on the specific location of the High.

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Yet it did in Banbury , it is perception you are correct and cold spells and extremes can be very local , I have known Banbury to have really good snowfalls and Witney ( ask Moomin ) get nothing , but surrounding villages to Witney also get a good covering 

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If those two HP's were to link we would be laughing , so close 

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agreed, the 6z takes another step back to blocked setup.

If anything - its just nice to see a slightly drier outlook. If that leads to colder weather - then that's just a positive at this stage

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TBH Dec 2010 was quite underwhelming here. We had a decent snowfall around the 18th but that was it. In comparison mid-Dec 2009 to mid-Jan 2010 brought 3 heavy snowfalls. 

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Enjoying the trip down memory lane this morning.
GFS tips it’s hat once again to the idea of a solid block to the east and disruption over the UK.
Not the rampant mobility some had accepted just yesterday.

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The big problem or risk with a block to the east, depending on its location, is that the low pressure train across the Atlantic will just decay over the U.K. or get deflected northwards leaving us in a “nothingness” semi-permanent Col-like situation - high pressure to our east low to the west.

Beyond a big blob of high pressure over Russia flirting unsuccessfully with Scandinavia I am not seeing too much of interest in the next couple of weeks in terms of actual weather.

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Aye - as many different versions of a block to the east weve seen over the past week or so, none of them look particularly cold.  I think I saw one that delivered some snow.

 

Mostly its just a cool and maybe frosty setup.  Even then - we know frost is usually at a premium from a stiff dry easterly breeze.

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And that's what happens when we get a block over us , lets get the HP here and keep the fingers crossed

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Looks like an eye candy with the block over Greenland to bring down northerlies.- However I am not getting too excited at this range - we have already had several flips of late as you know and it's not even winter yet!? What happened to that easterly mid November and then 3rd week of November (Now) and then end of November which models were picking up on - yet only to be let down nearer the time.- More runs needed and with such a cold stratosphere, driving the PV and record breaking zonal winds we are experiencing isn't going to favour much if any HLB. But we shall see what ENSEMBLES show because if this 06z GFS is an outlier then we can forget it.

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Displaced azores ridge with low heights to the biscay region could bring a nice setup as we head into Dec...keep the faith..😊

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Well there have been hints of colder weather and this is one of the better options. Could all be gone by next run or colder, but to go with any outcome at the moment is pointless. Good to have many options as we head into winter.

I’ve seen worse runs. The 6z is full of ‘potential’.

More runs needed.

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A key message to take from the models is how quickly a pattern seemingly locked in can switch. It doesn't mean that it will but it should show that writing off the prospects for a colder period is unsound.

 

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I'll start a new thread at 15:00.

I've just added in charts going back to 1960. Just looking through 62/63 and am thinking there wouldn't be enough upper level cold in the NH to sustain a winter like it now.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx?year=1963&month=Dec&dom=24&var=tmp&region=Eur&level=850&hour=00

 

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