BBC next tuesday 25 degrees again for the cool starved south east.....never has the NW SE divide been so pronounced

I had a feeling the heat wasn't quite done with us just yet in the South East. Especially since we seem to have developed a sub tropical climate these last few years. 

Recent moisture and warm nights never seen so many mushrooms so early....

Yes - a horse mushroom bonanza round here. Plus a few ceps!

Next two weeks on the 16-dayer showing cool weather and rain mostly in the west and in the second week.

GFS - a westerly pattern with HP dominating from the S until Thu 10th after which the Atlantic fires up and LP generates more of a SW-ly; LP centres Iceland 980mb Fri 11th and again Mon 14th, 965mb Thu 17th still Iceland but with trough extending to S England. Yesterdays's ex-hurricane has been downgraded but still there S of Newfoundland Fri 18th.

GEFS - temps low now, warm Fri 9th, fairly consistent near seasonal norm (Scotland cooler) to Tue 13th after which much divergence though mostly on the warm side. Not much rain and best chance in S around Sun 13th. (Scotland more continuous from that date)

ECM - similar to GFS but keeps pressure higher over the UK after Fri 11th

Perhaps there should be a JFF model, as well as those struggling below?

GFS: generally westerlies with HP over the S, sometimes withdrawing back to the Atlantic, sometimes forming a ridge over the UK as a whole (esp Mon 14th). No major LP as was forecast yesterday until Mon 21st when one over E Scotland brings in N-lies. At the same time, the ex-hurricane mentioned yesterday has been revived and is a definite feature E of Newfoundland by the 21st.

GEFS: Temps up Tue 8th, Sat 12th (this peak less marked in the N), Wed 16th and down in between, divergence sets in after the last of these. Dry until 12th, some chance of rain after that esp in Scotland.

ECM: As Neil points out above, ECM has swapped forecasts with GFS and now interrupts the gentle W'lies with a small deep low 975mb NI Sun 13th. That fills in situ but leaves a broad area of LP stretching towards Iceland                                                                                                                                                                                    .

Would only take a small squeak for the south east to retain  the warm conditions to continue the NW SE split ...be suprised if a proper pattern change fully materializes before October ...

In what way was August in any way exciting?

Asking for a friend.

GFS - W-ly regime this week but trough from Atlantic establishes itself to W of Ireland Sun 13th and starts a more SW-ly flow before moving N up the W coast as a defined depression Wed 16th. That hangs around N of Scotland while an ex-hurricane (back again and more definite than yesterday) moves steadily from the SW to decay over Cornwall 990mb Mon 21st and then combines with the Lp to the north. Usual caveats about unpredictability of ex-hurricanes apply.

GEFS - warm around Wed 9th, soon back to seasonal norm, but anything could happen after Sat 12th, extremely wide divergence. Rain in unpredictable amounts from Sun 13th onwards, rather more in N and W.

ECM - similar to GFS but keeps trough from 13th further W and suggests a fine warm autumnal spell with HP  and S-ly winds over UK for  the week following.

FAX shows location of fronts in the W-ly flow; although there's HP over the S for this week, trailing fronts look set to make it cloudy at times

All rather uncertain - it would be a bold person to predict more than 5 days ahead at the moment

GEM and ECM go all scorchio this morning. A mid September heatwave would be nice.

Stunning ECM 12z for warm weather fans. High 20s make a comeback.

Thankfully the regular August monsoon season appears to be over and we can look forward to some typical quiet September weather - at least for the first half.

Oh your so right. You get lulled into that false sense of security when you have a autumn cold high and hope it develops into something exciting. We know what happens then....

Even when it comes off, you end up distracted because you're bricking it it'll fizzle in a disappointingly short time and you'll just get a week.

I think the vast majority of us would love a repeat of the Dec 2010 spell but on steroids. A 'different Xmas' with people unable to get their shopping in would be interesting.

My dream scenario is cold really setting in a week before Christmas and last through January. Surely we are due something decent. It’s so tiring searching for scraps and ending up with a few flakes on the back end of a cold front,

This has to be early today so ECM is yesterday's 12z ...

Jetstream running quite strongly across N half of UK until Mon 14th when it buckles and comes in from the SW for a day or so before splitting with one branch to the N and one to the S of the UK until Sat 19th. N branch wins out and runs S-wards across the UK Mon 21st before a completely fragmented situation on Wed 23rd.

GFS shows W-lies for this week with Hp originally strong to S declining. On Mon 14th, an Atlantic trough comes S to W of Ireland and introduces S-lies with HP centre building over UK but not lasting with slack pressure for the rest of that week and shallow LPs all over the place. Mon 21st, ridge of HP slowly moving in from W but never really covering UK so eastern areas could stay cool. The ex-hurricane (maybe not so ex) makes its appearance Sun 20th S of Newfoundland but unlike yesterday's forecast moves N. not E, and is 980mb on S tip of Greenland Wed 23rd

GEFS has better agreement for temps near seasonal norm to Sun 13th, above at first and below later but accentuated in the N,  then a rather warm spell slowly declining to norm by end of that week by which time variability has set in. Some rain around from Thu 17th.

ECM is less keen on the 'slack pressure' for week of 14th than GFS and had a well-defined LP to the SW at that time as a controlling influence though pressure remains fairly high over the UK.

too soon?

sprinkles over Siberia 

Eurohigh at the end of the tunnel 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html 

Interesting end of the September blowtorch...nice to see the seeds of an Eastern European cool down

Decent chance of some late season "heat" in the day 6 to 9 slot.

Amazing charts for September....what a turnaround from 10 days ago....be interesting statistics for this month if this keeps up.....