Sure that was 10 years ago now but since 2010/11 we haven't had a front loaded winter have we really?

Many of our 2000's were front loaded winters or contained sustained northerly/cold spells December 2001, December 2002, December 2003, (December 2004 - the last proper white Xmas) End of November December 2005, Nov/December 2008, Nov/Dec 2009 and Jan 2010 and of course November/December 2010. But my point is that we have not had a front loaded winter or proper cold wintry December spell since December to remember of 2010!?

I remember 2nd week of December 2017 we had a northerly but only lasting 2-3 days. - But even then the December turned out average or milder with a milder spell over Christmas week.

I take issue with some of those on that list.

2002-03 wasn't a front loaded winter, December 2002 was actually mild following the very mild November. There was a poor man's easterly mid month but it was snowless for many parts that December.

2003-04, I would call that a mild winter with each month contain short wintry episodes, they were no sustained wintry spells. 

2004-05 had a white Christmas but it was fortunate the short blast occurred at Christmas, in actuality it was a mild December. The only sustained wintry spell came at the back end at that winter.

Recent Decembers have been a throwback to the Decembers of 1970s and 1980s.

I am not necessary saying front loaded winter but we have had snowy/cold or wintry spells/snaps in those Decembers compared to recent December's over past 10 years.

25th December 2004: - The chart say's it all.

I remember there being a smattering of snow on 22nd December 2003: - Proof here as we had a northerly plunge.

December 2002 - I remember wet snow falling and settling giving 1" around 9th and 10th. It didn't last long but it was snowy and cold for a few days daytime maxes of +0.5c -we had an easterly, I remember as I was at college then.

I remember the potent northerly 22nd December 2001 - I was at college then heavy wet snow fell over night not much settled but left a smattering this was following and easterly:

My point is we never seem to get proper snowy type cold weather in December for the exception of 2010 of course.

Just as well the NYE celebrations get cancelled!?

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2020091818/run1/cfs-0-2496.png?00

Christmas - the CFS are still going for blocked conditions and northerly flows in December.

All a bit of fun!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2154&mode=0&carte=0&run=1

A bit of fun for sure

But IMO they exemplify the difference between accuracy and precision

CFS is great.......for taking the mick out of the initials 

Computer Fantasy Scenarios

Completely Fabricated Sh!te

Can't Forecast Snow

Constant False Signals

For balance Kev - remember ECM ? took us up the garden path then firmly shut the gate on us , I think any one of the models that goes ridiculously far out can be looked at just for a giggle.

The UK is so hard for getting  continuity in forecasts .

Looking interesting!

Be funny if CFS actually came good ……………….5,000-1 ?

December 81 was very cold and snowy. I can remember the soil freezing as we put in fence posts. Dug it out , twenty minutes later a frozen crust on the damp soil . Gale force N. Easterly froze water troughs in minutes.

^^^^^^^

Yes I remember that well  , my Dad was putting a base down for a shed in the garden , the ground was harder than the road , a great Month 

Don't forget December 00, where we had a cold snap with snow late in the month. Not a classic by any means, but it was over the festive period, and in a prolonged period lacking any even moderately long cold and snowy spells, it felt like winter wonderland.

The only other snowy spell that 'winter' came in the March (here, at least) and that was brief. 

Yes I remember that! A short but sharp northerly and then easterly gave us snow flurries and dustings boxing day 26th Dec 2000. However this didn;t last but left a trace/smattering! Again my point is that whilst this wasn't front loaded winter like 09/10 and 10/11 it still gave HLB with cold and snow at some point in December!? - Something we haven't had since 2010.

You could still have 10 days of Artic weather and the other 21 be very mild Rob but the above are the same as the charts Tally and I have posted - JFF 

If you look at the pressure chart it looks like anticyclonic dominated conditions, ie surface cold, with the U.K. on the NW flank and therefore still under air masses from west/south.

Valid point indeed and February shows a strong high of Greenland - those charts aren't as bad as they look

Dare I use the word potential ?

BUT too far out to really be taken seriously I'd say 

Gavin always said to focus on the pressure and it's the height anomaly not temperature the heights/mean pressure is more important than temp. Even with blocked pattern and easterly the long range models will still go for average or above average temperatures. 

November and December show a blocked pattern with potential easterly with ridging up towards Scandinavia!?

Height anomaly maps can be highly misleading though. Higher anomalies to the north, for example, may just mean that high pressure zones may be situated just slightly further north than normal etc. 

Just checking the strength of zonal winds at 10hpa over the N. Pole - Does anyone know what this is about the purple CFS Bias corrected, BETA!? Is this to do with TS Beta!?

Anyway, they all show a weaker zonal flow.

Rob those CFS monthlies are top of the chocolate teapots. If you save a run of successive 6hr outputs you’ll see them wafting from hot to cold and all shapes of kitchen sink.

I looked at a weeks worth for Jan20 back in Sep last year and they ranged (for the UK) from -5 to +7 anomalies for 2m temp. If you take any seven day series for three months ahead you’ll get a fuzzy smoothed mean of around zero I reckon.

In other words, no quantitive value - not even an ‘idea’.

Its a version of that algorithm which is under test conditions (beta test state).

I like your suggestion though. Maybe we could have a GFS Teddy run 😂

https://photos.app.goo.gl/cLAXJHU89aMpYh4L9

This was Cluny Drive in Edinburgh, November 30th 2010. The city had 5 weeks of snow deeper than 12" right down to sea level.
No traffic could move and the army was brought in to clear roads

This is a link from my google photos, hope you can see it

I've got similar ones!

I had a WW1 style trench system going on linking the pavement, the front and back doors and the shed

CFS has very big biases (systematic errors), so at best it's only worth looking at its bias corrected forecasts.