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Tim A
29 September 2020 16:39:04


 


  Dec 09 had snow on the ground from a lot of showers that started the weekend before and continued through the week, snow-on-snow! Was about 10cm by Xmas Day and I think we got a few flurries on the day itself.


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


I rate December 2009 as the best recent white Xmas in these parts.  Born in 84 I had only seen the odd shower or dusting until then.  Snow on snow like you say, with deep fall on Xmas eve morning which as I recall was a bit unexpected or the amount certainly was.  Xmas 2010, we only had a thin covering of 2-3cm, nothing like you guys in the NW, but I was relieved, had I been a few miles east there would have been nothing. 


Looking back now, 2008-2013 was really the daddy of winter periods in my lifetime.


 


 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
some faraway beach
29 September 2020 20:47:35

Christmas morning 2010, five miles south of Taunton, where I was living at the time.



I'm prepared to admit it might not have been a real white Christmas, in the sense it didn't snow. But quite frankly, who was counting by that stage?


Also, Gooner makes a very good point. When we get this sort of thing again, don't waste it. A major reason for people's frustration with British winters seems to result from them staying indoors, glued to their screens and looking for the breakdown whenever we do get periods of snow and ice.


I spent that Christmas afternoon sledging with the dog until the magical afternoon dissolved into that weird blue Arctic twilight unique to December 2010, with the snowy landscapes occurring around the shortest day.


Who cares if it wasn't actually snowing!


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
nsrobins
30 September 2020 09:39:26


Christmas morning 2010, five miles south of Taunton, where I was living at the time.


I spent that Christmas afternoon sledging with the dog until the magical afternoon dissolved into that weird blue Arctic twilight unique to December 2010, with the snowy landscapes occurring around the shortest day.


Who cares if it wasn't actually snowing!


Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


Great picture - that’s my kind of weather.


I agree, winter landscapes in December have a certain kind of magic with the weak sun and early sunsets. Snow in late Feb hasn’t quite got the same ‘allure’ to me.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
tallyho_83
30 September 2020 10:00:39

Anticyclonic November forecast today by the CFS monthly - could be very cold and frosty! Been a while since we have seen a cold and frosty November: However uppers are not impressive.


 



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
30 September 2020 10:08:07

Could be a snow event for Xmas day - again all JFF:


But interesting run: 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1974&mode=0&carte=0&run=3


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2154&mode=0&carte=0&run=3


 



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gooner
30 September 2020 11:58:54

JFF of course


 



 


You'd take that 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


tallyho_83
30 September 2020 13:24:30


JFF of course


 



 


You'd take that 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Send the link to this?


please?


Above average temps in Greenland & Svalbard!? = recipe for northern blocking!?


Very early day's but we are in tomorrow!


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gooner
30 September 2020 15:08:27

Nice end to the year



JFF 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


tallyho_83
02 October 2020 09:58:22


Anticyclonic November forecast today by the CFS monthly - could be very cold and frosty! Been a while since we have seen a cold and frosty November: However uppers are not impressive.


 



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Blocked November with the CFS today!^


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Russwirral
02 October 2020 10:41:25


 


Blocked November with the CFS today!^


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


Potential there for Late Autumn /early winter cold spells i think.


 


 


ARTzeman
02 October 2020 12:30:19

Inclusive of S**W.....






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
tallyho_83
03 October 2020 00:39:47


 


 


Potential there for Late Autumn /early winter cold spells i think.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


Looking at End of November CFS run JFF:


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1254&mode=0&carte=0&run=1


 


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
03 October 2020 09:51:05


 


Blocked November with the CFS today!^


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Looking at today's CFS monthly seasonal - Today, it appears November and December could be both a very blocked dry and cold month. Uppers are high but on the surface temps would be cold so I would anticipate lot's of fog and frost with these sort of charts:



 



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gooner
03 October 2020 15:10:16

December starts chilly JFF 



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


tallyho_83
03 October 2020 16:58:49


December starts chilly JFF 



Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Quite - todays 18z CFS run goes for a cold wintry start for the first two weeks of December:


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1434&mode=0&carte=0&run=4


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1614&mode=0&carte=0&run=4


 


 


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
04 October 2020 01:04:50

Suddenly!? A large part (perhaps the equivalent to the size of Europe) of central and northern Siberia get's covered in snow:


 



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
04 October 2020 09:48:05

Looking at strength of zonal winds at 10hpa for the next two months Oct-Nov they all appear to show a weakened zonal flow right into December:



 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gooner
06 October 2020 09:06:39

JFF Into Xmas week



Doesn't last very long though


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
06 October 2020 15:18:42

JFF From CFSv2 18z from last night brings us a Xmas treat



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


tallyho_83
07 October 2020 09:40:28

I am noticing trends that the CFS long range model runs are generally showing consistent trends for a cold northly plunge end of November into first week of December with HP out to our NW and low pressure systems diving southwards dragging down northerly winds: - Of course too early to take it literally but one to watch!?


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1074&mode=0&carte=0&run=3


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1254&mode=0&carte=0&run=3


Ties in well with the CFS for November:



 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gooner
07 October 2020 10:11:36

JFF Nice to see for Mid November 



Moving towards the end of November



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


tallyho_83
07 October 2020 10:17:31


JFF Nice to see for Mid November 



Moving towards the end of November



Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yes of course JFF but starting to see a pattern emerging with this which looks similar to this set up:



 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Steve Murr
07 October 2020 21:22:53
A decent ECM NDJ seasonal update this week with a strong pacific ridge & strong Atlantic / Lower Greenland block.
Brian Gaze
07 October 2020 21:33:49

ECM suggesting a front loaded La Nina winter with a negative NAO favoured in November and December.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Russwirral
08 October 2020 11:48:42


ECM suggesting a front loaded La Nina winter with a negative NAO favoured in November and December.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


More and more models kinda aligning to a blocked and interesting start to the winter season.


 


Every year we get such signals which fizzle to atlantic storms pretty quickly, but given the poor run of winters recently, this may be a balancing out year where cold actually arrives...


 


 


 


 


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