Apologies Martin 

Today's 35 dayer keeps things colder than average for much of the period. 

Bang goes the chance to test the old 'warm October, cold winter' canard

Hell, no worries, mate! Twas my quoting cock-up initially - and I managed to repeat the feat with my last post as well 

Indeed 

 I think we're long past that stage personally. Snow is snow whether it be October or April or December or January. Beggars can't be choosers.  

Day 10 blocked from GFS 

16-dayer shows cool weather for UK for the next two weeks, with some seriously cold stuff over Finland in week 2. Damp in the S week 1, more general rain later http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

GFS - the approach of HP from Atlantic deferred while LP runs SE-wards across UK on Mon bringing N-lies. By Fri 16th LP from Spain to Norway and rather weak area of HP across UK until Mon 19th when depression 985mb appears off E Scotland. This also travels SE-wards leaving behind a W-ly/SW-ly flow across UK. To finish, deep LP on Atlantic 965 mb Mon 26th pumping up warmth from the S

GEFS - In the S generally cool though closer to seasonal norm from Mon 19th after which much variability. Wet ca Tue 13th then a dry period before more general rain from Sat 17th onwards. Similar in Scotland though less certainty on temp from an earlier stage, and smaller amounts of rain.

ECM - similar to GFS at first though next week's continental LP centred further W i.e. closer to UK; but then quite different as LP drifts further W to intensify W of Biscay Tue 20th - no sign of LP off Scotland at that time

I feel so snow starved that snizzle depositing less that 1cm is appealing right now. Naturally if that does happen, I’ll be most annoyed it wasn’t more.

Lol totally agree on that ...a few grains settling on the rubber seal of my windscreen more than enough for me..flashbacks of the grey skies and the cold of March 2013 

Blocking a plenty throughout the 12z GFS - we all know what's going to happen once we get to November …..or maybe not this year 

120 

168

240

360

yes a terrible waste of synoptics, I’m sure like last year come December 1st they will melt away only to reappear late Spring

I hope it's not the case! As our luck would have it you can clearly imagine it all going to pot by late November but fingers crossed we get at least a front loaded winter out of this. 

You're a glass empty person, mind you 

I think there was a lot of higher latitude blocking in Oct 2010...

Ramp alert.

Jetstream still looking very unstable with the main flow throwing off loops before briefly resuming W-E; loops over Corsica Mon 12th devloping into braoader one over W Europe Wed 14th; S of Iceland Wed 15th; Madeira Mon 19th; Baltic Mon 26th. So the UK can experience the jet from almost any direction temporarily, though there is a brief straight strong NW-SE across Scotland Fri 23rd.

GFS - LP moving down N Sea Tue 13th to settle briefly over France; rather broad but weak area of HP over UK for rest of week before LP moves S over Ireland Sun 18th. New area of HP affecting all UK through to Tue 27th but tending to stand off to W so expect cool N-ly weather.

GEFS - Good agreement on consistently cool temps to Mon 19th (ca 5C below norm) after which maybe closer to norm but sudden onset of uncertainty then. Rain ca Tue 13th; dry-ish for a while, frequent instances of rain after Tue 20th but no agreement on detail. 

ECM - similar to GFS to Thu 15th but area of HP less extensive with LP hanging around W/SW of Ireland. Then quite different as LP moves across UK Wed 21st by which time HP has disappeared.

Generally, don't trust any forecast much beyond midweek

ECM 

GFS 

UKMO

Blocked throughout , can't last forever , can it ?

[quote=Gooner;1264548]

ECM 

GFS 

Blocked throughout , can't last forever , can it ?

_______________________________________

Probably until 1st Dec..🤔. But you have to say some decent synoptics around..GFS OP has quite a cold Europe at the end of its latest run..Here is to hope!

Joe bustardie (apologies if I have got his name terribly wrong), did an analysis of cold Octobers and their outcomes, and it was 50:50. Some were cold and some were then mild. Which of course means that there is a good chance since the ratio of cold to mild winters is skewed 20:80.

Patterns may change - but the last blocked and cold October (was it 2009 or 2010.), preceded a cold winter, and plenty of snow.
Personally, I am grateful the Atlantic is not raging, and think this is a good omen, as the stat's of probability suggest. The albino effect will be greater this year with a lot of early higher latitude snow cover than for many years. Notable early alpine dump too.

In truth I think we have recently been here before with decent set ups in the Autumn, only to be blasted away by the Atlantic come December and stuck in that rut until Spring with early new year winter floods to boot.