looking very Octoberish

And Novemberish - Decemberish - Januaryish and Februaryish 

Just saying 

Chances are low Ian, especially as I have now mentioned it but saying that ECM are also toying with a storm around that time (can’t c&p link for some reason).

As we are only on October 12th Neil , bit early to write off any blocking 

Not that you were , just saying for the viewing public 

Certainly a marked shift on the 12z GEFS ensembles. It has trended less cold but more significantly the rainfall shows a big uptick. Very Octoberesque! 

Below average temps if we look at the Met update , surely we cant get another Winter of dross like last year Dave ?

I went for a cool month in the CET comp; it was bound to flip milder after looking promising. 

Of course 😎 Just illustrating how unwise it is to pin your flags on the DJF trends in the middle of October. The release of more ECM data will probably only add to the madness - there’s more data to get frustrated with when it goes wrong.

GFS - Ridge of HP mainly to the N with LP lurking off the S or SW until Tue 20th when LP deepens 975mb off SW Ireland  (the warmest of the S-ly winds on its flank are prominent over Europe not the UK) and hangs around for that week  until reinforced by major Atlantic depression Mon 26th with strong W-lies, and another such LP in the wings for Thu 29th

GEFS - Cool and dry to Tue 20th, then disagreement between runs but mean is close to or a little above norm and rain becomes frequent (more intermittent but heavier when it happens in Scotland)

ECM - like GFS but LP off Ireland deepens a day later and a bit closer to UK

Mid to long range looking a bit different 

Might get some sort of Easterly out of this 

Jetstream - loops currently over Europe and Iceland, the former breaking up, the latter moving S to become cut-off over Madeira Mon 19th. UK not directly affected by jet until Mon 19th when W-ly but another loop over Uk Thu 22nd moving SE Sat 24th; same pattern of W-ly and loop repeats Mon 26th - Fri 30th

GFS - Area of HP mainly over Scotland and LP to SW this week; after which LPs move across from Atlantic, to Shetland 1000mb Tue 20th, Hebrides 980mb Sat 24th, Scotland 995 mb Mon 26th, Cornwall 970mb Thu 29th. Much more Atlantic activity than yesterday, and the LP W of Ireland which was featuring then has been written out.

GEFS  - remaining a little below norm temps throughout with uncertainty setting in from Wed 21st; rain also setting in everywhere  from that date, more so in S than yesterday, less in Scotland

ECM - collapses the HP earlier with major LP over S Scotland 970mb Wed 21st,  moving away E-wards but another waiting in the Atlantic 965mb Sat 24th

All I'm currently thinking is that the slack and blocked scenario threatens some quite cold weather but is likely to get blasted away by the Atlantic in mid-term.

HP over France would be OK for the south if you like cold quiet weather but that's for later

HP Returns , blocking the Atlantic ( 12 days out )

Atlantic fights back ...............deep into FI

16-dayer shows cool over NW Europe with the 'blue patch' well established around Finland. Rain a-plenty for the UK especially week 2. worth keeping an eye on https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif as snow cover becomes widespread further east.

GFS - different again this morning as the LP to the SW is now forecast to revive by Tue 20th and move to N Sea 980mb Thu 22nd (looks like a forecast published 36 hours back, and supported by current BBC) This hangs around and is supplemented by another trough to W which develops to 975mb NI Sun 25th again moving NE-wards across UK. Brief lull before 955mb Thu 29th NE Scotland

GEFS -  temps irregular but not far from seasonal norm from Mon 19th at which point the rain starts - lots of it, more than yesterday esp in S

ECM - very much the same as GFS

Jetstream - small cut-off loop in Atlantic  now, moving (with some support from main W-ly flow) to become a loop affecting UK on its eastern side Tue 20th and dispersing by Fri 23rd when main W-ly flow resumes across UK, only to curl up into another deep loop Mon 26th. After a confused day or two but always with something of a loop over UK the stream becomes a v. strong W-ly over Scotland Sat 31st.

GFS - the LP which has been hanging around to the SW intensifies and pushes across Scotland Tue 20th with some hang-back. New deep LP 975mb NI Sun 25th, and N England 985mb Wed 28th, filling and becoming  W'SW-lies Sun 1st with large LP over Greenland.

GEFS - temps rising to norm Tue 20th and staying around that, a bit above at first, a bit below later, through to Sun 1st. Rain starts Tue 20th and doesn't give up, fairly continuous in S, more intermittent but with bigger individual totals in N.

ECM - similar to GFS but places the LP Sun 25th S Ireland only 985mb moving to Cornwall

Oops wrong thread..

Next week looks like a recipe for  lot more heavy rainfall. Flooding issues will reappear after a brief drier spell recently