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nsrobins
23 November 2020 09:36:51
Re: seasonal temp anomalies. It should always be noted that a 3 month anomaly of 1-2C will always potentially include colder spells.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
KevBrads1
23 November 2020 17:51:41


If there is one single word that I DETEST more than any other in the world of weather it is teleconnections. Don't get me wrong the worlds weather is all interconnected but it is these so called experts who believe they have a handle on being able to read these and how they integrate with one another and how they think they can decipher which one or ones have a stronger influence at any given time is mind bogglingly naive on their part. 


Originally Posted by: DPower 


 


The technobabble that goes with it, there's an expert on another forum as regards to this.


 


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Saint Snow
23 November 2020 22:23:05


Christchurch Harbour 62-63 . Will we see it freeze this year or ever again?



Originally Posted by: bledur 


 


I know it's comparing freshwater to seawater, but this pic is of Derwentwater in Jan 2010:


 




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
tallyho_83
24 November 2020 09:00:45

CFS's 500mb anomaly on the 00z is looking very interesting today - for December:



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Saint Snow
24 November 2020 11:53:38


CFS's 500mb anomaly on the 00z is looking very interesting today - for December:



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


I've bolded the key word



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gooner
24 November 2020 15:30:12


Changes daily . lets look tomorrow 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Brian Gaze
24 November 2020 15:33:36

I notice Leon Brown was quoted about the possibility of a colder than average winter. He's a highly respected meteorologist, however, a) I'm not sure of the full context of what was said b) no one is consistently getting UK / W European lrfs right IMHO


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Russwirral
24 November 2020 15:43:51


I notice Leon Brown was quoted about the possibility of a colder than average winter. He's a highly respected meteorologist, however, a) I'm not sure of the full context of what was said b) no one is consistently getting UK / W European lrfs right IMHO


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-bitter-chill-hits-23052147


 


If its from a tabloid, theres a very high chance of context issues and misquotes


 


Still - seems a fairly strong claim


Saint Snow
24 November 2020 16:18:25


 


 


https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-bitter-chill-hits-23052147


 


If its from a tabloid, theres a very high chance of context issues and misquotes


 


Still - seems a fairly strong claim


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


Perhaps he's gone 'full *****C' (or who was that other charlatan that got stroppy with Brian about having the mick taken on here? was his methods something about the solar max and min? he'd use it to pinpoint dramatic weather events to a day, about 2 months in advance. aaarrrggghhh, what was his name?)



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
fairweather
25 November 2020 22:37:02


 


 


I know it's comparing freshwater to seawater, but this pic is of Derwentwater in Jan 2010:


 



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


This is worth keeping an eye on, Baltic Ice, as winter progresses:-


On average, ice covers an area of some 170 000 km², which stands for 40 % of the total Baltic Sea area (422 000 km², including Kattegatt and Skagerrak). The minimum ice extent has been on winter 2020 when there was only 37 000 km² ice in maximum.


2020 winter was the lowest on record. 


https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-season-in-the-baltic-sea


S.Essex, 42m ASL
tallyho_83
26 November 2020 01:03:39


 


 


https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-bitter-chill-hits-23052147


 


If its from a tabloid, theres a very high chance of context issues and misquotes


 


Still - seems a fairly strong claim


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


Is this a prediction then or if not based on what!? Models?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


roadrunnerajn
26 November 2020 06:42:42

A newspaper on weather steroids... I see it says England could drop to 4c? and Edinburgh to 0c it does not say if this is during the day or night.


Sounds pretty average to me.


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
26 November 2020 07:09:01


 


 


I know it's comparing freshwater to seawater, but this pic is of Derwentwater in Jan 2010:


 



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


There was ice covering most of Bosham Creek in Chichester Harbour in 2001 (or was it 2000?) but scarcely thick enough for a duck to walk on.


Slightly off-topic but told to me by a colleague when I worked in Manchester: his father lived in Keswick and in the 1930s Derwentwater had been frozen for several weeks, so his father went out for a regular evening skate after supper. As the freeze went on, the level of the water had dropped and there was a gap between the water and the ice sheet on top, with the sheet being supported by pillars of ice. That evening his father went out as usual, with s southerly wind getting up, and there was suddenly a cracking and groaning sound. He got off the ice quickly, and fortunately so - the wind ha got into the space under the ice and within half an hour the ice covering the whole lake had broken up into smallish floating patches of ice, not big enough to support a man.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
26 November 2020 10:37:28
My gut instinct is that South East Europe could once again be the sweet spot for cold spells this winter. It wouldn't surprise me if mainland Greece saw more snow than much of the UK. Book your skiing trip to Mount Parnassos now!


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
tallyho_83
26 November 2020 12:45:55

My gut instinct is that South East Europe could once again be the sweet spot for cold spells this winter. It wouldn't surprise me if mainland Greece saw more snow than much of the UK. Book your skiing trip to Mount Parnassos now!

Originally Posted by: GezM 


What makes you think that? 🤔


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
27 November 2020 10:21:19


 


What makes you think that? 🤔


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


I think that occasional blocking highs over Scandinavia, alongside mid-Atlantic high pressure systems, will drive low pressure systems south/south east into the Mediterranean region. Sometimes they might head straight for the Balkan regions, on other occasions they will take an easterly track through the Med from Spain to Turkey. For any of these situations, cold continental air is likely to be drawn down on their western flanks from the north east across Greece, Turkey and the Balkan states.


I'm sure between these there will be still be plenty of mild spells but it wouldn't surprise me if they see quite frequent snow events in that region. At least in the first part of the winter. 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
picturesareme
27 November 2020 16:56:10
Winter has definitely arrived down here over tje past few day's with temperatures in single figures, and the next 7 days look to continue the trend with just one exception - the weekend has double digit highs.

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