I deleted the last MO thread but haven't deleted any members yet. Onwards...

The end of this week looks intriguing. Will it be a wet and windy mess or is there potential for something a bit more wintry? My hunch is the former for most but the latter for some hills.

Overall the synoptics still look more interesting than the actual resulting weather ma be.

Looks marginal to me. I expect there will be some snow in the northern half of the UK even down to low levels.

The lack of really cold runs in the GEFS is a bit odd given the synoptics some of the runs show.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

ECM 00z also keeps some interesting synoptics but can't tap into much cold.

Some cracking FI charts this morning on GFS with the Greenland high taking the highlights. The control run leading the way! 
Martin

GFS - the well-telegraphed LP from the N arriving a day later but deeper and closer (980mb S England Fri 4th), and then retaining more of its identity as it first retreats towards Norway and then comes back a week later Thu 10th on its way to Spain. A long spell of N-lies, but no very cold air so IMO wintry rather than snowy except over hills. After a brief lull, new LP from Atlantic Tue 15th (990mb Irish Sea) with a hint of pressure rises Greenland - N Norway.

GEFS - a long period (all the way to Tue 15th) with mean of runs a couple of degrees below norm, just recovering slightly towards the end, Op and control are amongst the colder members esp around Sat 12th, up to that time there's unusually good agreement. Pptn starts Thu 3rd and continues on and off throughout but with a drier spell midway in the N. Inverness snow row after a brief set of high values settling down to mid-range (ca 10) but only occasional small values further S.

ECM - very close to GFS to Fri 4th but although LP then retreats to Norway, it also fills rapidly. New LP then moves in from N Atlantic to Brittany 990 mb Wed 9th also moving to Spain as above, so again some cold but not very cold N-lies and E-lies at that time.

The ECM doesn't really buy it and we would be heading back to zonality after T240.

I agree with Brian. there are some really interesting synoptics which in any other year would give us a memorably wintry December. But there's no nearby source of seriously cold air for the synoptics to tap into.

Still as a believer in the persistence of patterns across a season, the current set up gives me hope if/when it returns in January

What makes you so sure of that, Ian?

From what I can see, the ECM 240hr chart shows HP moving in from the atlantic after the low to the south of the UK moves away, with an attempt at a link-up between the atlantic HP and the one to the NE. Doesn't look like an almost certain return to zonality to me.

ECM00z op was at the bottom end of the ensemble after Dec 5th. Fits in with the earlier comments about GEFS and the possibility of snow mainly in the northern half of the UK.

David the mean also suggests a collapsing of heights later on, we would need low pressure to sustain over Europe to even maintain a mid latitude High should that chart come to fruition.

This GEFS p jumped out at me:

But look at 850s across Europe!

The Control is on the cold side of the ENS but you'd take that 

This post doesn’t even make sense, not to mention that it doesn’t even reflect the ECM output.

From the OP , this isn't to be sniffed at either 

Yes, my thoughts as well, Peter.

I sometimes wonder if Ian is looking at the same model output as the rest of us are looking at!

Yes astonishing warmth across Europe - as I said yesterday remove the date and one would guess the chart was early October.

Southerly flow all the way from North Africa. Not really 'astonishing' is it?

Is the warmth really that remarkable? Running through the latest GFS run most of western and southern Europe has negative T850 anomalies for virtually the entire run. Further east the anomalies turn positive.

Meteociel - Cartes du modèle numérique GFS pour l'Hémisphère Nord

The greatest positive anomalies are over northern Canada - up to 25C above average over the coming days!

ECM shows similar anomalies - cooler than average in the west (including UK), warmer than average in the east. Meteociel - Modèle Numérique ECMWF CEP

What you actually said was NE Europe?

And that is the 7th warmest out of the ENS so I'd ignore that if I was you , so its on the high side and at that distance its a JFF comment , not to say it can't happen of course 

Someone will be happy 

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In fact many could be very happy