Yeh... of all the mess and flip flopping over and to the north of us.

Theres been a consistent signal of lows running into the med.

Possibly the only consistency there has been. Let’s hope the other ingredients fall into place for cold.

Noticed today Norwich airport 8/1 for a white Xmas - going to have a little bet

The GFS seems to want to bring in the Atlantic again at the end of the run - just in time to steal Christmas like the Grinch, even more so than Covid has already, but I think the GFS always seems to do this, and its a safe bet normally, because this is, after all, the prevailing scenario, but this year I don’t buy it. I think that something very interesting will develop from this odd shaped blockage. Normally about now the Jet is at it’s strongest, so to get a block now heralds great potential for rinse and repeat blockages down the line, when the cold has accumulated to a greater degree than the currently rather balmy Eurasian continent. Yes a bet on a white Christmas is reasonable. Still about 15% chance - but 15 x better than 1% which is the modern normality. All much more fun than last years model watching.

No mans land is my key phrase of today.

The pattern remains GOOD. But we always seem to remain in this sort of annoying window where the pattern doesn’t quite land well for the UK.

Ironically towards the end of the GFS we have a huge Greenland high but most of the UK under South westerlies.

But still all to play for.

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_348_1.png

Feeling optimistic for snow in my location this evening. Exciting!!!

Rural East Ayrshire, 200m above sea level.

There will definitely be some snow around over the next two or three days.
For this location it looks totally vile with copious quantities or cold rain and easterly muck. 

Generally once again this morning the charts and patterns look more interesting than the weather for most people - unless cool and damp float your boat (metaphorically rather than literally).

Really? I thought it was uninspiring post T+168: upper heights to our north have vanished and the high to the east is too far away. 

Just one run though.

The end of the GFS op run has the greatest potential of almost all of the recent output; a proper Greenland block and a broad surge of cold Arctic air plunging south.

The usual caveats apply but that run would likely deliver a very cold run up to Christmas.

ECM has a decent snow event on Friday for the SE.

Jetstream throwing a big loop with strong S-wards flow on the Atlantic, down to Spain and returning N-wards weakly up to Norway. This lasts to Tue 8th with UK pretty well in a cut-off low. Then the jet concentrates on a S-ly flow through the Med, the UK at first well clear to the N of this but the jet moves ti affect Southern UK on Wed 16th (and a right muddle on Fri 18th!). BBC describes our position as between two blocking HPs, one to W and one to E so a spell of LP going nowhere.

GFS concurs with LP Kent Fri 4th 980mb, looks like rain or marginally snow almost anywhere, fills and progressively loses its Arctic feed by Wed 9th. New rather flabby LP in from the Atlantic which settles over N France Sat 12th, filling but followed by another which hooks up to form a trough from mid-Atlantic to Spitsbergen Fri 18th with tempting-looking NE-lies on its northern side,  at that stage only affecting Shetland.

GEFS mean of runs 2-3 C below norm at first, gradually recovering to just below norm ca Wed 9th (sooner in N & E) and staying there to Fri 18th. Very good agreement and first and not too bad later in with few outliers. Heavy pptn around Fri 4th, less in SW but prolonged in N; some rain (could be snow on high ground) on and off throughout after that . more than forecast yesterday and increasing towards end.

ECM brings the new LP in earlier, and not flabby; 985 mb Brittany Tue 8th. but then shows the Azores HP beginning to push LP away to our E by Sat 12th; just the hint of a small trough over the Hebrides in contrast to GFS

On the 00z it shows as mostly rain with some snow: just a few patches of snow dotted around and a brief period of snow for the northern Home Counties.

Temperatures around 2c also look marginal. It’s another one of those situations where if the precipitation is heavy enough and it’s slightly colder then it could make a significant difference; equally a small move the other way and it’ll just be cold rain.

Models have a Dec 78 feel to them end of run...except the cold air isnt so large or so intense...BUT COLD ENOUGH......hope this pattern expands as this has been the missing link in the chain real cold air to NE...

Yes it's definitely very marginal . We need a huge bit of luck for anything good. 

And they produce the best events IMO , wet snow can be a nightmare 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

While they suggest below average for the forseeable, there doesn't seem to be anything terribly exciting in the GFS ensembles either.

GEFS35 continues to favour average to colder conditions for much of December. Possibly a warming trend becoming established in Jan but I'd like to see some consistency on that in the coming days. TBH it has been surprisingly consistent for December and IMO is proving a very valuable tool. It would be interesting to start seeing some verification state for it and ECM45.

Agreed. The SD of the new 30 member set has been remarkably low given the uncertainty normally attributed to the model output with time. I’m not sure it makes the mean any more or less useful than it was before but it adds confidence in the solution - especially in the ‘medium’ term.

Was it the 06z that showed a Greenland high at the end yesterday too? It's always to be taken with a truckload of salt but when far FI on the GFS keeps repeating themes that go against the climatological norm it's worth a raised eyebrow at least. 

As Brian said, the verification stats would be interesting. However, whatever about the medium term,  I would be sceptical as to how reliable this is for the final third of the forecast period in particular. 

In terms of looking for cold it still can't give high confidence levels. For example the approx 95% confidence level at 5 days is still 6C (+/- 3C. When you think at the bottom end  +1C can make a difference between snow and rain you realise how precarious any kind of long term prediction for snow is. However I agree that they are reasonable and nobody expects 95% confidence for snow even at 8 hours away in the UK!

Judging by the output models, looks like is going to be a very, very, very wet month, whether it's rain or snow. Hope I'll be wrong.

Annoyingly - its been a very wet autumn.  The Golf course has been like a bog.

We go into lock down, golf courses close and we hit a dry spell..

Come out of lock down and back into Low pressure driven weather

Back in April and May we had splendid weather, and again - courses were closed. :(

They opened and it became wet

2020 can do one...