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Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2020 11:07:57

Looks like GH is favoured on this run - hopefully it happens and sticks around for Xmas

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


Yes a thing of beauty by the end . We can but hope.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
02 December 2020 11:13:12


 


 


Yes a thing of beauty by the end . We can but hope.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


shocked if it did happen countrywide snow and cold. At least it’s not a one off

Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2020 11:23:31


 


shocked if it did happen countrywide snow and cold. At least it’s not a one off


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


I think significant blocking to our north is a good bet this December. We will need a bit of luck for it to be the perfect Greenland high like the GFS 6z though.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
02 December 2020 11:45:34

This isn't the 1st or 2nd time in recent days GFS has shown this 




The Op and the Control aren't that far apart 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


pdiddy
02 December 2020 12:05:28

Who would be a forecaster!  Some fantastic charts being shown consistently by GFS and it's bound to get excitement levels to fever pitch in the MOD...


 


Would be nice to see this stay in similar shape as we progress over the next 10 days so we get a proper count down.


 


4/1 for snow at Edinburgh/Glasgow airport on Christmas day

CField
02 December 2020 12:21:25

North thrown into the freezer....features running along the channel keeping south in the mild zone.....2010 the south coast missed the mild by a fag paper and snow went very soft haily at times ....


Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Russwirral
02 December 2020 13:13:19

So quick summary of where we are for snow this week focusing on Thursday into Friday morning


 


EUR4 model (i still use it even just for fun) overnight Thurs-Friday


Snow to most of northern England, accumulations to Wales, Cennines and Cumbria


Rain/Snowfall EURO4 (4km) Fr 04.12.2020 02 UTC


 


GFS overnight Thurs-Fri


Has snow from wales across the borders with significant snow to north east UK laterChart image


 


ICON overnight Thurs-Friday


Significant snowfall to the spine of Northern Britain


Chart image


 


Arpege overnight Thurs-Friday


Doesnt like the idea of anything snowy - or heavy.  Pushes everything out to sea, and a bit of snow only to hills


Chart image


 


CMC / GEM


Goes for an event later into Friday morning for Scotland


Chart image


 


ECM


Goes for perhaps a bit more of an event for Northern England, then Scotland



briggsy6
02 December 2020 13:19:08

The pink snow is back.


Location: Uxbridge
David M Porter
02 December 2020 13:32:31

The final few charts of the GFS 06z run, to my eyes anyway, have more than a bit of a late November/December 2010 and mid-December 2009 to mid-January 2010 look about them, and for the avoidance of doubt this is not intended to sound like a ramp!


Obviously too far out to be taken in any way seriously at this time, but interesting to see nonetheless. One thing is for sure though which has already been mentioned by others, and that is at the moment at least, we seem to be in rather different synoptic territory compared to this time a year ago.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Russwirral
02 December 2020 13:51:33


The final few charts of the GFS 06z run, to my eyes anyway, have more than a bit of a late November/December 2010 and mid-December 2009 to mid-January 2010 look about them, and for the avoidance of doubt this is not intended to sound like a ramp!


Obviously too far out to be taken in any way seriously at this time, but interesting to see nonetheless. One thing is for sure though which has already been mentioned by others, and that is at the moment at least, we seem to be in rather different synoptic territory compared to this time a year ago.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


I dont think you are alone about this, but I think experience has taught us to be resrved.


 


Alot of chatter on Netweather about it too.


 


One run and all that, but the charts have been pointing towards a conclusion like this for a week or so, was only a matter of time before we saw some candy in the FI sequences... will be gone later 


Gandalf The White
02 December 2020 13:51:37


 


shocked if it did happen countrywide snow and cold. At least it’s not a one off


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


That's the sort of set up that produces polar lows; always quite rare beasts but seemingly an endangered species in recent years.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
02 December 2020 15:35:34
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2020120206/gens-31-5-384.png 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Heavy Weather 2013
02 December 2020 15:43:20
I’ve a hunch we’re in for a good 12z.

Just a feeling

Eyes down.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Jeff
  • Jeff
  • Advanced Member
02 December 2020 15:52:59


 


That's the sort of set up that produces polar lows; always quite rare beasts but seemingly an endangered species in recent years.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


But when they happen, they can be the most destructive of all winter weather events. Anyone want to use the time usefully between now and the 12s rolling out, here's a great link to an analysis of the Polar Lows of 23-25th December 1995


 


http://www.ijmet.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/212.pdf


 


On the East/West Sussex Border
70m ASL
ballamar
02 December 2020 16:17:04

I’ve a hunch we’re in for a good 12z.

Just a feeling

Eyes down.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


the high is better aligned already

doctormog
02 December 2020 16:23:11
300 hours is a long time in model watching. In fact sometimes 30 hours is too! If the type of charts shown a couple of times at day 15 on the GFS are shown consistently at day 5 it will be of more interest.

In the (much) shorter term it still looks snowy for some upload parts of Britain and (very?) wet for here and some other places. Friday looks generally cold and wet (unless you’re up a big hill).

Beyond that things are still messy with messy synoptics and coolish bland conditions much of the time. Not the normal zonal train but also not massively exciting on the current realistic output. Perhaps, if the unusual patterns remain, then maybe something interesting will develop rather than just FI eye candy.
Gooner
02 December 2020 16:32:16



Certainly a cold period coming up


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


fairweather
02 December 2020 16:34:30

300 hours is a long time in model watching. In fact sometimes 30 hours is too! If the type of charts shown a couple of times at day 15 on the GFS are shown consistently at day 5 it will be of more interest.

In the (much) shorter term it still looks snowy for some upload parts of Britain and (very?) wet for here and some other places. Friday looks generally cold and wet (unless you’re up a big hill).

Beyond that things are still messy with messy synoptics and coolish bland conditions much of the time. Not the normal zonal train but also not massively exciting on the current realistic output. Perhaps, if the unusual patterns remain, then maybe something interesting will develop rather than just FI eye candy.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


It looks generally pretty cold for at least a couple of weeks. With the low fairly static stuck in between there are a lot of different possibilities I think, most better than usual for cold fans for the start of December.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Russwirral
02 December 2020 16:35:04

Jetstream about 1000 miles south off its usual route


 


and yet, no real cold air


 



doctormog
02 December 2020 16:37:02


 


It looks generally pretty cold for at least a couple of weeks. With the low fairly static stuck in between there are a lot of different possibilities I think, most better than usual for cold fans for the start of December.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Yes, I think that is a pretty fair assessment. Whether it is anything more than pretty cold remains to be seen and I hate to use the word “potential” but it is probably appropriate this time. Coolish and Decemberish in terms of resulting weather if not synoptics, rather than mildish and forever autumn.


Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2020 16:41:25

Think Harmonie model has Friday snow nailed.


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/harmonie.php?ech=48&mode=26&map=523


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
02 December 2020 16:52:20


Think Harmonie model has Friday snow nailed.


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/harmonie.php?ech=48&mode=26&map=523


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


BANK


On another note, does anyone know what are the best models for snow?


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2020 16:55:19


 


BANK


On another note, does anyone know what are the best models for snow?


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


Yes it's the Harmonie model. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Downpour
02 December 2020 17:07:40


 


 


Yes it's the Harmonie model. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Only a fool questions its veracity. 


It was wrong once, but it was so long ago that everybody has forgotten about it.



 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2020 17:08:47

Underwhelming set of 12z though has to be said.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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