Been loving the comedy value over on the other thread the past few weeks. The last couple of weeks though have been priceless. Certainly not a forum to take seriously but did not realize the craziness had spread over to here. When reading through the posts though it does become blindingly obvious why this thread has joined the crazy gang. 

Arpege 18z.

APERGE brings similar depths to the ECM around SW of the wash..

( by about T46 )

Another model now presenting high moisture content...

Been swamped with work so don't have time for an MS paint job for tommorow.

But will do a risk map for Friday tommorow evening which is the one people seem mostly interested in.

Looks like the senior Met forecaster is joining the crazy gang then.

Another sniper. 

Why? 

GFS is an odd one, and very intriguing...

quick to allow the Atlantic in, but then that block flexes its muscles again and bang, back to easterly.

Its perfectly reasonable to assume all the atlantic return hints are just chart interim filler, and probably will dissolve with future runs...

all very interesting

I cant remember the last time I saw a set of charts as we have this week, that are so hell bent on blocking to the east, however its cut

How much of the blocking is because the jet stream is weakening? It's something of a chicken or egg question.

I do recall reading about the 1962/63 winter and it was said that the blocking became established because the jet stream went through a period of relative weakness.

The Synoptics are not unlike December 2009 for this point in December. Coincidentally at the same point in the solar cycle. Bodes well for this winter and even more so for next winter. Very concerning news today on climate change: nothing we did not know already, but good it has hit the headlines again and is high on the agenda. Despite this - with the right Synoptics it is still possible to get some decent wintry weather. All to play for. GFS back-tracking on its default Atlantic return. 

Agreed. If you can’t hack the ‘comedy’ try another forum. This site is a decent mix of expert opinion and good humour that largely survives unmoderated and long may it continue.

I agree completely with what you say in your opening three sentences.

Wrt the other issue you mention, I think it might be in the best interests of harmony in this thread if discussion of that is kept away from here and we focus on keeping this thread for the purpose for which it is intended; discussing the model output and what it could mean for our weather prospects going further into December.

Happy Winter everyone!

I'm one of the many on here who mainly posts during the Winter season. I like cold and snow and spend a lot of the season in the Scottish Highlands and have a vested interest in Winter sports.

Based on the model output over the last few days, outside the Highlands I don't see anything too remarkable for the time of year. As long as the Azores High remains prominent that will remain the case. The encouraging signs so far are the more Southerly/buckled jet and the tendency for the Azores High to retrogress towards Greenland. That seldom happened last year over Winter and it will be interesting to see if the pattern persists.

No strong suggestion of a potent Easterly incursion at this stage, particularly as uppers are not too low over the continent.

All to play for though, and based on model output so far this Winter looks a bit different from last, and for cold lovers that has to be a positive sign. 

Harmony model seems to be suggesting lying snow in Surrey and Chilterns by Friday morning.  EZ is similar

https://weather.us/model-charts/harmonie/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20201205-0000z.html

But in interests of balance, some other models are suggesting nothing

I suspect this is marginal, sleety snow that melts vs snow that doesn’t melt

Snow risk in eastern England reduced according to the overnight Arpege.

Icon still has snow in East Anglia tomorrow.

Mid month warming trend appearing on the GEFS needs watching. 

Not often you see the rainfall graph overlapping the temperature graph in London

Bit of a kick in the gonads short and longer term this morning. The high latitude blocking signals appear to be waning today . Short term well it was always a long shot for significant snow in the SE and EA. Still a chance but basically needing a miracle. 

16-dayer shows cold air still hanging around well to the east; and although cold, the temps  in week 1 at least are only below average in S Russia (and a blob in the Alps - good for early skiing?) while the Arctic and to a lesser extent E Europe are above average. Rain concentrated on western coast of Europe and in the Med. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 

GFS shows LP in residence over E Anglia tomorrow 975 mb, filling and drifting SE (a little intensification Tue 8th). LP which has been hanging around off NW Scotland from Thu 10th finally moves in on Tue 15th with trough to cover UK but almost instantly fills and is replaced by the all-too-familiar sight of deep LP 955 mb Iceland Sat 19th with W-lies and troughs swinging across the UK. Yesterday's hint of NE-lies at that time has evaporated.

GEFS as above - notable sharp spike in rainfall today/tomorrow, and not exactly dry after that with best chances of more heavy rain around Sun 13th esp in S, and in any case rain more frequent in W. Temps staying a degree or two below norm to Fri 11th with good agreement, after which more variability than yesterday but with mean value close to norm. 

ECM generally agrees with GFS though keeping the centre of the current LP and its remnants to the W coast of UK rather than the E coast; then the LP off Scotland moves in earlier with trough across UK Sun 13th (980mb NE England),  in this case matching GEFS better than the parent GFS.

I think there is a good chance the HLB signal will come back soon. It has come and gone already this season.  It wouldn't surprise me if the gfs 6z is blocked again long term.

Not 'model' related so much but interesting isn't it!?

GEFS from 17/11.