Very disappointing runs this morning

Blimey that's interesting 

So GEFS two weeks ago didn't really pick up the current coldish phase. Hopefully, the suggestion of a warm up mid month won't materialise either.

Indeed - Given yesterday we were looking at this set up on the 06z run - i thought we were in for a 2010:

Only a guess, but this could be part of the reason for the ongoing uncertainty and flip-flopping in the later stages of many model runs at the moment. I think I saw someone else mention this a few days ago.

The way I am looking at it, I think that pretty much anything could happen as we go further into December. While there is no sign of any "winter wonderland" type scenarios from the models, what I am not seeing either is anything resembling the set-up we had this time last year which was a total nightmare for cold fans.

This current set up is going nowhere for decent cold....let's get some decent cold uppers crashing into Scandinavia Western Russia while we suffice under mild or better very mild conditions for a while.Hopefully later down the line a decent WAA occurs which will favour the UK and we xan  have some decent cold air to tap on to..Are there any decent back ended winters in a La Nina year ?

Yes very disappointing, a rolling back in of the Atlantic and a strong signal now to lose the Euro -ve height anomaly.

You seriously thought that based on a chart from 16 days out?

We ? Only the eternal optimists on here were. The majority of experienced sensible posters were saying there would be a cold spell and a risk of some wet snow on high ground at best in the South. They would also take more heed of the National Weather Agency forecasts that were not predicting a 2010.

I see Matt Hugo has tweeted something about the bulk of EC ENS members developing a block to the North by next Thursday 

I think it did quite well TBH. Unfortunately I don't have the data tables archived. However, if you look at the 00z ones for London today and check the daily summery box:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=00&fv=tmp850&loc=London&lat=51.5&lon=0&p=&cty=

You'll see that by Friday 18th 53% approx are going for -4C to 0C 850s with 37% in the 1C to 10C range. So they are still favouring a chilly outlook. That could of course change in the next 36 hours are more of the ENS flip towards a more classic Atlantic flow. 

The comedy I referred to was from the other forum, although I was surprised to see silly talk of snow fall over east anglia, southeast or central southern England appearing in the discussion for tomorrow. 

Weather enthusiasts yes experts NO.

Jet looks further south on this run into to around 200hrs or so.

Fair enough, Brian, you obviously interpret the information far better than I do! I suppose that's why you run a weather website and forecasting service while I'm a lawyer .

It's the Model Output thread, and the models were/are showing snow for that region. Most recognised the chances in reality and caveated their posts.

Should people ignore what the models show because you think the likelihood of what they show is minimal?

I might retract this a bit having looked at the 06Z set. A decent number of HLB runs - pert. 15 the pick of the bunch.

If you have elevation maybe some flakes, but it wont settle. Just cold rain like now. The worst weather imaginable!

Just gone through the whole of GEFS and quite a few are in disagreement with the Op including the Control 

I think there is room to be optimistic 

Just seen your post 

If you want to believe everything the models show you crack on pal.