theweatheroutlook

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ballamar
03 December 2020 20:27:22


In Harmonie we trust. 


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/harmonie.php?ech=19&mode=1&map=523


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


nice surprise to see that

The Beast from the East
03 December 2020 20:36:42


In Harmonie we trust. 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Is she the new NOGAPS "the blonde model"?


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Ally Pally Snowman
03 December 2020 20:40:22


 


Is she the new NOGAPS "the blonde model"?


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


She's had a sex change she used to be called Hirlam one of the better short term models. Soon find out tomorrow morning if this forecast is nonsense or not.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
03 December 2020 20:42:13


 


 


nice surprise to see that


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


I gives most of Essex and my area about 5cm . Seems very unlikely but you never know.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
marcus72
03 December 2020 20:47:52
Obviously to be taken with the usual pinch of salt at such a long range but the 12Z GFS 850 charts for 348-384hrs are showing A LOT of dark blues and purples brewing to our north west, north AND north east. I'm in the camp that's really hoping we can pull at least a taste of it in our direction
Langstone, SE Hampshire
Ally Pally Snowman
03 December 2020 21:20:29

ICON joins the party.


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon-eu.php?ech=16&mode=1&map=510


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
03 December 2020 21:20:47

Snow risk map for tommorow:



https://i.ibb.co/C6qzRzF/snowriskfriday4th.png 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Saint Snow
03 December 2020 21:29:32


Snow risk map for tommorow:



https://i.ibb.co/C6qzRzF/snowriskfriday4th.png 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Think you need to factor in topography a lot more in the Pennine and North Wales areas. 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
White Meadows
03 December 2020 21:47:19


Snow risk map for tommorow:


https://i.ibb.co/C6qzRzF/snowriskfriday4th.png 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

...a career at the BBC weather graphics department awaits...

Karl Guille
03 December 2020 22:16:21
Quite a significant difference on the 18z GFS at T144 with a ridge of high pressure extending across the north of the UK with the low much further west in the Atlantic at this stage. Still no real sign of cold at this stage but could materially change the run as we head towards FI.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2020120318/gfs-0-144.png?18 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Karl Guille
03 December 2020 22:20:13
No undercut this time but the moderately cold uppers are slightly further west on this run.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2020120318/gfs-1-162.png?18 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
tallyho_83
03 December 2020 22:54:18

18z @ 252 - looking at view from N. Pole down, the block over western Russia seems stronger and further west on this run:


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Lionel Hutz
03 December 2020 23:05:10

No undercut this time but the moderately cold uppers are slightly further west on this run.
Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

">http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2020120318/gfs-1-162.png?18


Again, though, it's quite striking how mild the uppers are even right into northern Russia. 

Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



ballamar
03 December 2020 23:05:30
Blocking just keeps coming back in the charts
Steve Murr
04 December 2020 06:24:05
Morning -

Well some fun & games overnight, good forecast from the Harmonie, not quite as much snow as forecast but enjoyable watching it unfold !
ECM track & PPN was spot on > just not cold enough by a few whiskers!

Some changes in the models overnight in particular ICON / GFS as we get more undercuttting out at 180 something to keep an eye on > UKMO looked pretty good as well.
Certainly interest remains in the outputs especially if we can drag a more continental flow in ...
Shropshire
04 December 2020 06:43:22

Some changes in the UKMO and GFS this morning but a dreadful ECM rolling out.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
pdiddy
04 December 2020 06:49:51

GFSP showing a bit more warming expected at 10hPa.   It's quite different from the common or garden GFS though.


Shropshire
04 December 2020 06:50:53

ECM and GEM both very flat in the mid-range, it's a long way back if we get to this -


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2020120400/ECM1-216.GIF


 


 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
doctormog
04 December 2020 06:53:50
So basically lots of uncertainty in the medium term is the overall picture then?
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Shropshire
04 December 2020 07:05:09

So basically lots of uncertainty in the medium term is the overall picture then?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


I would say not with the ECM very consistent in bringing the Atlantic through. The increasing heights over Europe were indicated by the EPS and we are seeing that now come into view.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
doctormog
04 December 2020 07:07:17


 


 


I would say not with the ECM very consistent in bringing the Atlantic through. The increasing heights over Europe were indicated by the EPS and we are seeing that now come into view.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


So lots of certainty if we discount the GFS, UKMO, ICON, GEM etc. I get it now.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Shropshire
04 December 2020 07:12:42


 


So lots of certainty if we discount the GFS, UKMO, ICON, GEM etc. I get it now.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


GEM fully supports the ECM this morning. From experience when the ECM is consistent in the evolution at T144-T168, it's usually broadly correct.


I know Kev is posting failed T240 ECM charts on the other side but if the evolution is correct in the mid-term you will still end up with something like what the T240 shows because it's a broadscale zonal pattern.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
moomin75
04 December 2020 07:13:30
Just saying, I'd like to bank this mornings CFS V2 long ranger for June, July, August. 1976 repeat if that came off. Just as likely to verify as any FI short term model.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
04 December 2020 07:20:28


 


GEM fully supports the ECM this morning. From experience when the ECM is consistent in the evolution at T144-T168, it's usually broadly correct.


I know Kev is posting failed T240 ECM charts on the other side but if the evolution is correct in the mid-term you will still end up with something like what the T240 shows because it's a broadscale zonal pattern.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


My point is about uncertainty and why you have reached a conclusion based on selected evidence not all of it, that’s all. The ECM and GEM are not similar at 240hr. Surely you recognise the perils of discounting half the model output to pick a preferred scenario, either mild or cold? More experienced model watchers would have learned that lesson years ago.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Shropshire
04 December 2020 07:30:46


 


My point is about uncertainty and why you have reached a conclusion based on selected evidence not all of it, that’s all. The ECM and GEM are not similar at 240hr. Surely you recognise the perils of discounting half the model output to pick a preferred scenario, either mild or cold? More experienced model watchers would have learned that lesson years ago.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Time will tell as ever Doc, but we should support the ECM as by far the likelier solution at day 7/8.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.

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