Just looking at ECM 12z meteograms for Manchester

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/web/classical_meteogram?facets=undefined&time=2020120312,0,2020120312&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=53.4809&lon=-2.23743&station_name=Manchester,%20United%20Kingdom&altitude=undefined

Definite trend in for a rise in 2m temps but doesn't look wet and the wind roses are notably favouring a compass direction between the south and east. 

Lets see what the 0z meteograms bring 

I would agree with all of that (except for the last bit which I don’t understand )

Jetstream co-operating with a cold outlook, first looping S of UK with a weak N-ly return, then (Tue 8th) settling into a strong flow across France before another loop develops a week later to bring it north again. It settles directly across the UK Sun 20th.

GFS - current LP filling and replaced by LP sliding in from NW & crossing Cornwall Tue 8th (also shown on BBC last night) disappearing SE-wards and replaced by a similar one Sat 12th. The next LP Tue 15th stops over, briefly covering all UK and suddenly we're back to  mild SW-lies for the last 3 days to Sun 20th. No source of any deep cold air so snow events if any will be marginal/on hills; continental blocking collapses from Wed 16th (Cf shift in jet at about that date above)

GEFS - current wet spell followed by drier until Fri 11th after which some rain about esp in SW. Temps for the present a degree of two below norm and well agreed, return to around norm on same date (i.e. 11th), also more variable between runs but no extreme outliers in S, a few notably warm ones in N.

ECM - doesn't have any truck with sliding LPs after Tue 8th but sticks next LP firmly on Atlantic from Fri 11th, with close approach to NI Sun 13th and something really deep 955mb approaching on Mon 14th

Or we wait for the ens when a more questionable solution presents itself. In this case, the op is more progressive compared to the mean and should be treated with scepticism, as we would do when a cold outlier is shown 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

No doubt that if the GFS and ECM ops were reversed this morning and GFS was showing what ECM is at that range and vice-versa, you would be saying that we should back GFS over ECM.

David, you've been doing this a long time as a lot of us have and in that time you should have learned that whatever the 'ranking' of a particular model, the worst outcome for the UK is likely to verify. We've seen even the ICON and the GEM pop up with poor 'outlier' solutions that have come to verify against the tide of the big 3. 

"Likely" is not the same as "definitely will" though, Ian.

You have been posting here for as long if not longer than I have and if you follow the models carefully and analyse them objectively as most of us here do, you will know that when there is as much uncertainty in the models as there is at present and has been for a couple or so weeks now even at relatively close range, it is unwise to single out one or two model runs and claim that they will be proved correct with their solution and others showing something else will be wrong.

For example, I still remember that back in mid-February 2018, you were all but writing off the coming of the Beast based on a few op runs which showed the atlantic coming back into play towards the end of that month, and how you had to about-turn with your thoughts once the models came into agreement on the former scenario developing. Sometimes the form horse does not always come out on top, and that is why it is unwise, IMHO, to put all your eggs in one basket.

The rapid backtracking last night over the forecast for this morning, i.e. fewer than 12 hours out, needs to be used as a starting point for any assertions about the certainty of the model evolutions 120 hours out, let alone 180+.

Even the specifics of the current cold spell have not evolved as shown under a week ago.

Er Nope.  Already had more snow in 4 days than the entirety of last winter!

Still optimism in the model output for more prolonged cold too.

as good as that high is, it needs a plunge of cold air around it... otherwise its actually a hinderance to any cold air reaching our shores.

RIght now its just maintaining the temperature status quo for Europe.  No real cold in sight

Obvious uncertainty in the medium term from the latest GFS before zonality takes over therafter - worrying signs that the GEFS now consistently show +ve height anomalies for Spain and the South of France.

Well the models weren't far off with their predictions for this current colder snap and the forecasters did pretty well I think. Those on here that predicted some snow on higher ground in the south and even the odd bit of sleet and wet snow on lower ground deserve some credit. One or two might not be eating their hats but perhaps having a bit of a chew 

Don't worry GFS control extended is giving us all a nice New Year's gift.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=99&time=810&lid=C00&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref

Good summary. Shorter term colder with still a small risk of a bit of snow about, especially in localised cold pools as with today. Then chilly mid term and after we are in unreliable but not looking disastrous for colder interludes. I think  this will be a rare average or just below December on last two decades.

The models are showing a continued generally southerly flow over Europe for the next couple of weeks at least. In my experience we rarely get a decent cold spell in isolation and Europe is generally cold as well. It has been this way for Europe as well in recent years. As of today we have virtually no snow cover west of Moscow. Hesinki is 8C and other places like Tallin, St Petersburg, Stockholm, Warsaw are all snow free and well above freezing. We really could do with this changing I think.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_2009–10_in_Europe#/media/File:Europe_Temperature_Map_2009-12.png

Today's GEFS35 update fits in with the idea of a milder spell during the middle third of December before it turns somewhat colder again. the warming trend in early January has appeared on several updates now. 

Well, I do recall a certain contributor from Shropshire saying the headlines this week would all be about flooding. I did suggest there might be the odd headline about a surprise snowfall.

Still a covering on the grass here but the last of the slush and snow has just cleared from the surrounding lanes.

Certainly given the seasonal outlooks by the Pros you would expect to see a strongly zonal and mild set-up by late December and early Janaury, something that has become almost de rigueur in the modern era.