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Saint Snow
04 December 2020 17:53:18


 


What is the preferred replacement term for those as winters are clearly so much milder in the last 30 years?


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


 


The 2009-2013 period measures up to any period in my lifetime for this region. And I'm nearly 49.


Periods like the last 30 years are not unheard of of in recorded meterological history.


 


But all that's not the point. The term is used by Shrops to troll.


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gooner
04 December 2020 17:58:32

Control ( GFS ) very blocked


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


dagspot
04 December 2020 17:59:29
Not sure id class today as a once in a decade snow event...
Neilston 600ft ASL
Rob K
04 December 2020 18:09:05
http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2020120412/gens-31-1-336.png 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Shropshire
04 December 2020 18:18:08


 


 


The 2009-2013 period measures up to any period in my lifetime for this region. And I'm nearly 49.


Periods like the last 30 years are not unheard of of in recorded meterological history.


 


But all that's not the point. The term is used by Shrops to troll.


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Well I'd challenge you to find anything like the last 32 years since records started being kept. 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Downpour
04 December 2020 18:23:09
I think Modern Era was uttered on here by Ian on 16 Nov, which I believe was a TWO record.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
The Beast from the East
04 December 2020 18:25:58

ECM looking like a fail, going same way as UKMO

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pdiddy
04 December 2020 18:26:56


But the mean is meaningless in the latter stages because it's the mean of so many diverse scenarios!


Control at t300



21:


 


 

pdiddy
04 December 2020 18:28:46

P21


David M Porter
04 December 2020 18:30:40


 


We used to get a snowfall in every November, not anymore. By contrast, we're yet to see the thermometer below 1C this Autumn/Winter let alone see a snowfall...


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


You must have been lucky in getting snow every November. I have lived in the same location for all of my 41 years thus far, and even back in the 80s snow falling here in November was a pretty rare occurence according to my recollection. Only time I can recall it happening during that decade here was 1988.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Steve Murr
04 December 2020 18:30:44



ECM 144 Doesnt phase the 2 lows like the 00z run so we now have a negatively tilted High > Very similar to the GFS infact...

Gooner
04 December 2020 18:39:14


 


We used to get a snowfall in every November, not anymore. By contrast, we're yet to see the thermometer below 1C this Autumn/Winter let alone see a snowfall...


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


Every ??


 


Really? 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


western100
04 December 2020 18:40:16

I’ve gone through the GFS 12z and it looks a lot more blocked up North with the jet too the south??

Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
100m ASL
Twitter…..@Weather4u2
Gooner
04 December 2020 18:41:04


 


You must have been lucky in getting snow every November. I have lived in the same location for all of my 41 years thus far, and even back in the 80s snow falling here in November was a pretty rare occurence according to my recollection. Only time I can recall it happening during that decade here was 1988.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Sorry David , just seen your reply , I agree . I have lived in N Oxfordshire all my life and November snowfalls are very infrequent 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


marting
04 December 2020 18:43:06

The GFS ensembles are painting a picture of a strong block building out in  far FI past 240 hours. By the end of the run it is does have an increasingly strong blocking signal. Perm 2 is fairly good!


I feel that whilst some runs are a bit messy the trends remain blocked longer term.


Martin

Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
ballamar
04 December 2020 18:58:19
So is ECM still model of choice or has that changed?
tallyho_83
04 December 2020 19:10:47

One to Bank - Just the look of it JFF: Only 822 hours away it's the Control that has lost 'CONTROL':


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
04 December 2020 19:29:15

So is ECM still model of choice or has that changed?

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Doesn’t that depend on what it shows...? 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
David M Porter
04 December 2020 19:34:37


 


Doesn’t that depend on what it shows...? 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


It seems to at least as far as one member here is concerned!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
tallyho_83
04 December 2020 19:36:41

As things stand - both index's of the atmosphere are going negative: - A change from recent starts to winters over the past few years years!?


AO:



 


NAO:



 


Also zonal winds @ 10hpa are becoming weaker than average: - I wonder if they are picking up on a SSW!?


http://www.weatheriscool.com/prod/gfs/eps/strat/u10serie_cfsCorrGefs.png


XMA Header Image


 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


ballamar
04 December 2020 19:44:42
ECM has some regression on this run of the high with the Atlantic being pushed back, GEFS has some interesting runs amongst it. Perhaps everything past 96 is put speculation as there is no clear trend. Makes a change from last year
Shropshire
04 December 2020 19:47:26

The ECM struggles to get the Atlantic past the Meridian in the face of the block but looking at the day 10 chart, 2 things stand out - more flooding possibilities as Low pressure stalls and the astonishing lack of cold air moving Westwards across Europe for what will be mid December.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Gooner
04 December 2020 19:50:08


 


It seems to at least as far as one member here is concerned!


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



That's a good looking chart , the block to the East has held firm 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
04 December 2020 19:52:18


The ECM struggles to get the Atlantic past the Meridian in the face of the block but looking at the day 10 chart, 2 things stand out - more flooding possibilities as Low pressure stalls and the astonishing lack of cold air moving Westwards across Europe for what will be mid December.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Or 


The Atlantic has hit a block wall and come up against a very stubborn High to the East and is being pushed back Westwards 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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