Donate to browse the TWO website without adverts until 31st December 2024. You'll also get access to extra features and supporting our ongoing development.
For full details please see Advert free access on our website.
Remove ads from site
Thunder snow in Edinburgh last night , I've only experienced it once and what an event that was ...2004 I think ?
And off we go for the 12z runs.
By the way, be honest, who still has a sneaky look at the pressure over Svalbard every now and again
Originally Posted by: warrenb
I’m only interested in the pressure over Berne 😂😂
Credit to some of the ppn models and to Q with his risk map that nailed the local but significant snowfall this morning in S Lincolnshire. Grantham was clogged and I have a car insurance claim that testifies to how slippery it was!
Every ??
Really?
Originally Posted by: Gooner
Pretty much yes, but remember, I live on Dartmoor.
The problem is the Continental block is to our east, it's pumping relatively warm air across eastern Europe right into Scandinavia. In the past the continental block would be over Scandinavia but, well, this isn't the past. Continental blocks these days move relatively warm air about, in the past they moved cold air about. European blocks mean S or S wind not East winds (yes, I know we have Nlies but look to your east for what i mean, a fetch of isobars from N Africa to Scandinavia)
The big 2 are very keen on building a very large high directly to our north.. possibly too far north to impact our typical dross but the trend, if it continues could be very interesting later down the line. Who’s thinking what I’m thinking for the 3rd week of December?
Originally Posted by: White Meadows
Don't know. Michael Howard?
yes it was 2004, having this discussion only a few hours ago at home
Originally Posted by: western100
I remember it well , it was grey and green one minute , minutes later there was a few inches of snow on the ground , amazing event
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
The ECM struggles to get the Atlantic past the Meridian in the face of the block but looking at the day 10 chart, 2 things stand out - more flooding possibilities as Low pressure stalls and the astonishing lack of cold air moving Westwards across Europe for what will be mid December.
Originally Posted by: Shropshire
Isn't his day the 31st October?
indeed day 10 850 anomaly
Originally Posted by: pdiddy
If you did a snapshot of the synoptics (ECM T240) for a 'typical' mid December you would call the temps in places like Ukraine, Belarus, Northern Poland at a few degrees below zero by day, but instead we would be seeing them at plus 4 or 5. Incredible.
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
No sign of the block disappearing at 144 on this run
Originally Posted by: ballamar
True, but what's the point ? Normally we are looking to see if we can get the flow to turn East of South in such situations, but when the cold enough air is 1300 miles East, it's an irrelevance.
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow
Did you threaten to "Over rule him...?" - Jeremy Paxman.
yes woke me at 4:30 so posted in the current conditions thread!
Yes, woke us up to the thunder too. The noise was horrific and our dog is still traumatised tonight!
I know it's FI stuff but ECM 12z is quite interesting at 240z as there is a major incursion of high pressure to our North from Scandinavia. As others have pointed out the 850s on the continent are far from cold, but if we do get that development, a change in the orientation of the High could lower the 850s very quickly.
Nothing to get too excited about at this stage but there is certainly potential for something decent as we head into the 3rd week in December.
Yes, the outlook is still a generally cool one on this and other output. Not especially “wintry” and a bit messy.
ECM looks quite good until you look at the 850s. Ian is right: there is no cold air in Europe this year!
Originally Posted by: Rob K
At the moment anyway. I'm not saying this will happen for certain, but things could change and change quite quickly if the right synoptic set-up for cold comes along. A large continental land mass like mainland Europe can cool down pretty quickly under the right circumstances, just like it can heat up quickly in the approach to summer.
You should be looking at that and thinking you are in business..but then you realise the upper air temps and it's just a continuation of rather chilly and drizzly.
Increasingly rarefied synoptics are going to waste.
