Indeed, there has not been a clear signal for a barrelling through of Atlantic weather systems yet. Blocking currently looks favoured. Better alignment for cold advection is definitely possible

I think we will need to disagree on interpretation. I'll say again: there's nothing springlike or unusual in that pressure pattern. That is a fact.

Nicely put. 

Looks like a mid latitude Rex block to me.

Quite cold for a few days yet but thereafter not promising on the GFS ensemble mean. By the 14th of December there is only 1 of the 30 runs below the long term mean, let alone cold. Of course after that it is the usual lottery but the first week of December could easily turn out to be the best for cold.

2 days later looks like the high is going towards GL . 

Plenty of HLB at the end of the GEFS including the Control that has a nice GL high.

There are a fair number of promising Ps at the end of this run in GEFS. The control, P3,4,6,25,26,27 all look to be setting up interesting scenarios just in time for the holiday. Over 2 weeks away, of course, but at least the signal remains uncertain enough to prevent surety of mild dross; more N'ly outbreaks than set-ups for any sort of E'ly cold in these outputs, but plenty of benign HP possibilities too, which could be seasonal enough. Not many Ps opting for a W'ly default, really.

Nice endings to both the OP and the Control , one to keep an eye on 

FI and JFF of course 

Just gone through them , certainly some interesting scenario's  

ive gone through the 06z GFS and can’t see anything mild? Not cold but certainly not what the last winter experienced 

I disagree strongly, if you look at the synoptic picture from the ECM (minus the 850 figures) you would have Mr Hyperbole screaming 'freezing in the SE continental feed !!' but instead we have positive uppers and near double figure temps from a Continental feed in the middle of December, should the chart come to pass of course.

As I said earlier, temperatures can drop pretty quickly over the continent of Europe if the synoptic set-up allows it to at this time of year, just as they can and do rise very quickly in the spring and summer. To my mind, you seem to be assuming there will be no major alteration to the synoptic pattern irrespective of what the models show, and thus there will be no change in temperatures.

Why are you so fixated on 850's in a forecast it doesn't take very long to get temps cold enough for snow , its the set up you need to look at 

Good night Eileen. The "modern winter" strikes again!

Congratulations you have won the most ridiculous snap judgement of all time

Indeed. 

Certainly a mild and wet weekend, hard to say where the UKMO would go thereafter.

I’m not sure that is especially mild even though it is not wintry https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png 

Are we looking at the same chart ?

7c 8c feeling chilly 

Well into FI

Quite different to the 6z 

Interesting how at 252 hrs on the gfs how that low to the far NE adverts in the colder air earlier in the run, probably then heading our way earlier than the 06z run. But all FI by far at this point. However the trend remaining resistant against the Atlantic train.

Martin