GEM looks decent again also ICON. In fact the ukmo looks pretty good at 144h. GFS s awful.

Not the case at all from the GFS, low heights and a strong jet to the North of us.

Look, Ian, you're an experienced chart observer so there's no excuse for not understanding how the position at T+240 has been reached.  There was a long fetch south-westerly dragging some mild air north and that then gets picked up by the anticyclonic SE breeze.  Approaching mid-winter that simply doesn't produce exceptional mildness.

The only people screaming 'freezing in the SE continental flow' are those who don't understand meteorology.

https://amz.netweather.tv/monthly_2020_12/gensnh-31-1-192.png.bc40988d6b34021e5e6d0996cbfbd59e.png

Pretty conculsive mean from the GFS, zonal with heights rising over Europe.

Very solid agreement on the GEFS for a significant rise in upper air temperatures to well above freezing in the second half of the run. Not necessarily all that mild at the surface as some have HP across us.

But the majority have temps into double figures for Londom by the end of the run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

Again that wasn't the point I was making Peter, I'm sure you are well aware. It was that there is an astonishing lack of cold air over Europe. 

Yes, sadly even dare I say it looks like Uncle Barty might be paying us a pre Christmas visit. Met office long ranger may have to align from a UK placed high to a more mid-continental position.

12z run couldn't be more different to the 06z or 00z run even if it tried!?

06z op run @ 300z

12z OP run @ 300z:

The GFS was the first to pick out the Atlantic return this coming week and signalled rising heights on its ensembles over Southern Europe for some days, which now the ECM has followed albeit with different synoptics. I think we will see the ECM following the GFS tonight.

Yes couldn't agree more but maybe the models could be wrong  - there was so much promise of cold weather only a day or so ago. I wonder the reason for the flip's in longer range models are due to the signs of a SSW occurring over Siberia and the descending easterly QBO as well as the weakening of the strong La Nina which was originally forecast!?

The UK Met Office says nothing about a return to mild or zonal weather and at best it said milder interludes possible and perhaps turning milder in start of January - well that's 3.5 weeks away so the Met office need to update their long range forecast and soon I think. They mention temperatures below average with frost and fog and very cold nights'. Well looks anything but frosty and very cold. We shall see what happens. Furthermore with a weakened zonal flow there seems to be a disconnect between the models and the NAO/AO - because both index's of the atmosphere are looking to stay negative - but GFS says NO to any HLB. Strange but will see what the ECM has to say and the 18z run.

As I said earlier, it won't be the first time the visible NWP forces a volte face from Exeter.

FWIW, those longer-range Met Office forecasts are largely based on the 32-day ECM ensembles, but they only update twice a week (Monday and Thursday).

The latest update - from last Thursday - showed a week's worth of milder weather after *next* Sunday, then a return to cooler conditions. IF the suite should extend that milder spell when it updates tomorrow I would imagine the text forecast would change as well.

A quick look through the jet stream charts confirms there's no strong jet to the north of us. How do you manage to misinterpret the charts, given your vast experience?

GEM actually turns it VERY mild in the south at 10 days.

Yes, there is a lack of cold air over Europe at the moment. That however, does not preclude the possibility that should the synoptics become more favourable, that situation could change and change quite quickly.

I really cannot see why you can't or won't grasp this simple fact.

happy with that, back to summer with a 31 barbecue I think

I've just stepped through the GEFS12z runs. My take is:

1) The majority have an Atlantic flow across the northern half of the UK at 360

2) A significant number have high pressure building across southern and central counties bringing the possibility of 2m level cold

3) A few show mid latitude or high latitude blocking developing in a potentially more favourable way for cold weather in the UK 

NWP?

No winter possible. 

Out to T+168 so far, and the ECM 12z op looks pretty well identical to the 00z from this morning.

Re your point 2 I thought the same but the tabulated GEFS on Meteociel shows only a couple of runs with low-level cold and the vast majority with mild or very mild 2m temps. Which surprised me actually given the potential for HP across the south. 

Certainly looks like a while before we see a day as cold as today with just 3C the max here. 

That's why I used the word possibility. In fact I just mentioned on Twitter that 2m temperatures also rise on this evening's GEFS update.