theweatheroutlook

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nsrobins
06 December 2020 19:02:00


 


NWP?


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


It’s Numerical Weather Prediction, Tally.


But I prefer Michael’s suggestion 👍

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Saint Snow
06 December 2020 19:23:58


 


No winter possible. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Not worth panicking. 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Shropshire
06 December 2020 20:05:15

Certainly a big move tonight from the ECM towards the GFS solution, heights high over Europe and a more traditional +ve NAO developing.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
ballamar
06 December 2020 21:04:16


Certainly a big move tonight from the ECM towards the GFS solution, heights high over Europe and a more traditional +ve NAO developing.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


if it’s there on the next couple of runs then will be the favoured option

Gandalf The White
06 December 2020 21:05:12


 


No winter possible. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Or, no wind-ups please?


😉

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


White Meadows
06 December 2020 21:09:30


Certainly a big move tonight from the ECM towards the GFS solution, heights high over Europe and a more traditional +ve NAO developing.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Impossible to disagree with this, we are moving into dire territory with a classic mild setup from the late 80’s. NAD shutdown, what NAD shutdown?


EC ensembles paint an ugly, ugly picture for seasonal conditions: http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim


 

phlippy67
06 December 2020 21:11:13
Id go for Negligible Wintry Precipitation...
Rob K
06 December 2020 21:29:13
Chances of the first week of this winter being the coldest? I wouldn’t bet against it at this juncture.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
06 December 2020 21:31:59


 


NWP?


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Non sensical Wun-liner Posts?

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
06 December 2020 21:34:06

Chances of the first week of this winter being the coldest? I wouldn’t bet against it at this juncture.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Is that your first genuine WIO post of the season?

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Shropshire
06 December 2020 21:56:44

Chances of the first week of this winter being the coldest? I wouldn’t bet against it at this juncture.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes I think given the professional outlooks for the winter and poor teleconnetions the fear is that the zonality forthcoming could be here for the long haul.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Gandalf The White
06 December 2020 22:00:29


Certainly a big move tonight from the ECM towards the GFS solution, heights high over Europe and a more traditional +ve NAO developing.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


The ensemble mean says two things: firstly, no more of an NAO at the end of the run than there is today; secondly, huge uncertainty across the entire North Atlantic at Day 10


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


White Meadows
06 December 2020 22:03:21


 


Yes I think given the professional outlooks for the winter and poor teleconnetions the fear is that the zonality forthcoming could be here for the long haul.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

The ‘Lads in Exeter’ are going to have to take a long hard stare into their crystal ball ...before realising they should have invested in some Windex. 

Brian Gaze
06 December 2020 22:17:35

I must be honest and say I'm starting to get that sinking feeling about December. I'm now wondering whether the month could come in (just for a change) above CET. Most winter forecasts - including the one I issued on TWO - have gone for December being the coldest month of the winter. Flip side of the coin is that things could quickly change!

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
marting
06 December 2020 22:28:41

I would wait a while! The 18z GFS flipped again, could hardly be more different at 200 hrs! FI for sure, but so different!
Martin

Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Gandalf The White
06 December 2020 22:40:25


I must be honest and say I'm starting to get that sinking feeling about December. I'm now wondering whether the month could come in (just for a change) above CET. Most winter forecasts - including the one I issued on TWO - have gone for December being the coldest month of the winter. Flip side of the coin is that things could quickly change!


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Slightly off topic but I've watched a subtle shift in the BBC forecasts for next weekend this evening: on Countryfile the possibility of the weather systems coming in at the end of the week stalling over us was mentioned. Tonight's forecast suggested the east may remain dry, with high pressure building to our east and the chance of colder weather encroaching from the east into the following week.


How often do we get suckered into falling for a couple of operational runs pointing 'the wrong way'.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Zubzero
06 December 2020 22:43:19


I would wait a while! The 18z GFS flipped again, could hardly be more different at 200 hrs! FI for sure, but so different!
Martin


Originally Posted by: marting 


Why wait? Going by some post's we now know Winter is over all ready. See you next December. 

David M Porter
06 December 2020 22:43:22


Certainly a big move tonight from the ECM towards the GFS solution, heights high over Europe and a more traditional +ve NAO developing.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Seen the GFS 18z, Ian?


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Laths
06 December 2020 22:55:06
Dam the GFS 18z and its teasing. It’s like the playground bully taking your sweets in the morning and giving them back at lunchtime .
John
Wallington
Surrey
(London Borough of Sutton)
ballamar
06 December 2020 22:55:16
Even if nothing else it does demonstrate how quickly the air to the east can become frigid. Pub run lives up to its billing
moomin75
06 December 2020 22:55:27


 


Seen the GFS 18z, Ian?



Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

He will ignore the 18z David.....As, I think, many will, as it is very much against the general trend at the moment.


However, I still think everything remains more interesting by a million miles to last December and I think there is way too much pessimism at the moment.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Russwirral
06 December 2020 23:10:15
Finally... a run where you could say it looks cold into FI... (but no snow)

Totally against the run of form...

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
nsrobins
06 December 2020 23:15:34


He will ignore the 18z David.....As, I think, many will, as it is very much against the general trend at the moment.


However, I still think everything remains more interesting by a million miles to last December and I think there is way too much pessimism at the moment.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Yes but most of us will ignore it for completely different reasons to Ian.


 

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
pdiddy
06 December 2020 23:18:31


I must be honest and say I'm starting to get that sinking feeling about December. I'm now wondering whether the month could come in (just for a change) above CET. Most winter forecasts - including the one I issued on TWO - have gone for December being the coldest month of the winter. Flip side of the coin is that things could quickly change!


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Ah, the old "reverse psychology" eh Brian?  Working wonders on the GFS run!

Downpour
06 December 2020 23:28:33


He will ignore the 18z David.....As, I think, many will, as it is very much against the general trend at the moment.


However, I still think everything remains more interesting by a million miles to last December and I think there is way too much pessimism at the moment.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Agreed. It’s a fairly fluid and interesting set up. 


I’m not sure what the reasons for the extreme pessimism are, whether it’s an unusual preponderance of mild rampers on TWO or whether people have just become jaded after the last couple of winters.


 


 

Chingford
London E4
147ft

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