theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Rob K
08 December 2020 10:56:51


Gfs 6z looks good day 10/11. Easterly incoming!


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Nice synoptics but unfortunately the lobe of HP hanging southwards into the eastern Med sucks up lots of warm air to kill the cold pool before it has a chance to reach us.


Still that is just quibbling over detail that will change and it's nice to see a lack of zonality.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Steve Murr
08 December 2020 11:05:16


Winter following the template most people expected so far. Still plenty of interest and I'd say there is a low to moderately low chance of it turning very cold later this month. The favoured outcome is for the Atlantic to muscle back and lay the foundations for a mild January. Probably close to 80:20.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Just a comment on this > Seasonal forecasts driven by deep la nina base state & no SSW built in.


With that in mind > the fact la nina has been weaker than predicted & the prospect of a SSW gathers momentum then all bets are off for January in terms of what the original forecasts looked like.


You may still forecast that probability based on seasonal statistics over the last 5-10 years however taking in isolation the chances of cold this winter are higher than average.> but of course not a dead certainty...

nsrobins
08 December 2020 11:08:33


 


Just a comment on this > Seasonal forecasts driven by deep la nina base state & no SSW built in.


With that in mind > the fact la nina has been weaker than predicted & the prospect of a SSW gathers momentum then all bets are off for January in terms of what the original forecasts looked like.


You may still forecast that probability based on seasonal statistics over the last 5-10 years however taking in isolation the chances of cold this winter are higher than average.> but of course not a dead certainty...


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


30% would be higher than average but I see where you’re coming from Steve.


I’m with Ally. I’m an experienced numpty but even I can see there’s something different this year going into mid-Dec.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Shropshire
08 December 2020 11:42:34


 


Just a comment on this > Seasonal forecasts driven by deep la nina base state & no SSW built in.


With that in mind > the fact la nina has been weaker than predicted & the prospect of a SSW gathers momentum then all bets are off for January in terms of what the original forecasts looked like.


You may still forecast that probability based on seasonal statistics over the last 5-10 years however taking in isolation the chances of cold this winter are higher than average.> but of course not a dead certainty...


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


There has been a shift in how the position looked in Mid-November with regards to La Nina.


 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Steve Murr
08 December 2020 11:49:15


 


There has been a shift in how the position looked in Mid-November with regards to La Nina.


 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Yes to a weaker more favaourable outcome.

Downpour
08 December 2020 11:49:27


 


There were multiple flood warnings even if flooding didn't make the headlines. Racing at Huntingdon was abandoned on Sunday due to a flooded course.


I agree with the comments from Brian and Beast.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


Disingenuous post. 


You forecast headline news, which didn't transpire.


There were isolated local incidents. 


You know your stuff but your posts would carry more weight were you prepared to concede a point: if anything, your mild/wet ramping has become even more pronounced in recent times and it is leading others astray IMO. 


I'm all for balance but I have to filter out so many mild ramps on here these days it makes the forum less useful as a forecasting tool. 


 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Shropshire
08 December 2020 12:07:12


 


 


Disingenuous post. 


You forecast headline news, which didn't transpire.


There were isolated local incidents. 


You know your stuff but your posts would carry more weight were you prepared to concede a point: if anything, your mild/wet ramping has become even more pronounced in recent times and it is leading others astray IMO. 


I'm all for balance but I have to filter out so many mild ramps on here these days it makes the forum less useful as a forecasting tool. 


 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


I disagree, people are very realistic and level headed on here and not given to hyperbole. You could call the 'mild ramping' a product of experience, but then that's what the modern era has done. In any case you can adjust your settings to block the posts from people you don't want to see.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
squish
08 December 2020 12:17:27
Very good consensus on today’s output of a large and intense cold pool sinking into NW Russia in 7-10 days . Lots of things have to line up to get it anywhere near us, although the strongest signal to be hopeful is yesterday’s headline that snowy winters will become a thing of the past . 😉
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Rob K
08 December 2020 12:19:02
GEFS has a huge amount of northern blocking in the second half of the run, most members have hefty blocks to the north although some of them have it too far north to affect us fully. Some proper Christmas crackers in there though.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2020120806/gens-31-1-360.png 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
tallyho_83
08 December 2020 12:20:05


 


Can you ever make a post without mentioning SSW? Your understanding of SSW has several times proved to be limited and you also seem to assume it's an absolute necessity to have any cold weather. I haven't seen anything to indicate a SSW event so i don't see what you keep mentioning it.


Originally Posted by: NDunwell 


I make many posts. You clearly haven't read them all.


I mention the SSW because both the Ao and NAO as well as strength of zonal winds go weaker and even into reverse thats why and last night the 12z and 18z run was going for a stratospheric warming. Today the runs are going for a modest warming.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Downpour
08 December 2020 12:30:01


 


I disagree, people are very realistic and level headed on here and not given to hyperbole. You could call the 'mild ramping' a product of experience, but then that's what the modern era has done. In any case you can adjust your settings to block the posts from people you don't want to see.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


As I say, I don't want to block you because you are a very clued-up forecaster. Too prone to –– yes –– mild ramping however. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
08 December 2020 12:32:13

Very good consensus on today’s output of a large and intense cold pool sinking into NW Russia in 7-10 days . Lots of things have to line up to get it anywhere near us, although the strongest signal to be hopeful is yesterday’s headline that snowy winters will become a thing of the past . 😉

Originally Posted by: squish 


 


Agreed, I must admit I thought they'd made themselves a hostage to fortune with that one: even though snow now is in no way contradictory with "no snow by 2080", it will be jumped on by the media as if it were. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Brian Gaze
08 December 2020 14:34:47

Just had chance to look through the GEFS06z runs.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=360&chartname=500mb&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM


The 20% to 30% chance of a cold spell for the Xmas period still looks about right to me.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
08 December 2020 16:15:54
GFS needs to build the high now over GL in order to for this to be good. Think this is the pivotal time in the run
CField
08 December 2020 16:22:47


Just had chance to look through the GEFS06z runs.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=360&chartname=500mb&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM


The 20% to 30% chance of a cold spell for the Xmas period still looks about right to me.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Think a halfway house option of a cold frosty Rex High could be a likely outcome over Christmas....quite seasonal despite lack of snow....great for a Christmas walk to escape the in laws lol

Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
ballamar
08 December 2020 16:43:06
Looks like sliding lows with height builds behind the low pressure, could be a very festive run
Rob K
08 December 2020 17:19:17
The 12Z GFS ends with some cold (but not bitterly cold) air sinking south for Xmas and some snow around in the northern half of the country. Room for improvement but better than the 14C southwesterlies that have characterised many Christmases recently.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
08 December 2020 17:24:01

Lots of HLB on the GEM 12z looks to be setting up an easterly day 10.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
08 December 2020 17:27:43

The 12Z GFS ends with some cold (but not bitterly cold) air sinking south for Xmas and some snow around in the northern half of the country. Room for improvement but better than the 14C southwesterlies that have characterised many Christmases recently.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Yes, that's my view as well.  Not a bitter cold spell but seasonably chilly - plus there's always a chance that some short-wave feature or other might spin across and deliver some proper snow; there will be sub-528 dam/sub -6 air over the country by Xmas Day on that run.


Short waves don't have to work against us.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Whether Idle
08 December 2020 18:06:30


 


 


Yes, that's my view as well.  Not a bitter cold spell but seasonably chilly - plus there's always a chance that some short-wave feature or other might spin across and deliver some proper snow; there will be sub-528 dam/sub -6 air over the country by Xmas Day on that run.


Short waves don't have to work against us.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes, entirely my thoughts.  This December has at least a seasonal feel. Foggy days and nights, some unexpected bonus slushy snow, and a weaker Atlantic and more meandering jet than in many years past this decade.  Colder weather is always usually more likely after than before Christmas.  My "pessimismometer" has shifted back a notch from high to merely moderate for the month at present.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
The Beast from the East
08 December 2020 18:19:15


Lots of HLB on the GEM 12z looks to be setting up an easterly day 10.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Always at Day 10. We are like addicts. We know the inevitable come down will happen, but we still allow ourselves to be sucked in everytime! 


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
08 December 2020 18:19:50


 


Always at Day 10. We are like addicts. We know the inevitable come down will happen, but we still allow ourselves to be sucked in everytime! 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


At day 10 we know very little beyond trends.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
08 December 2020 18:23:07

Never mind day 10, at day 15 there's a reasonable chance of snow across a fair bit of the UK: https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/runs/2020120812/gensprob-26-360.png


 


Meanwhile P28 serves up the first -15C of the season 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
08 December 2020 18:30:09


 


Always at Day 10. We are like addicts. We know the inevitable come down will happen, but we still allow ourselves to be sucked in everytime! 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Isn't that what this thread should be all about though?


These threads are surely all about us analysing all runs, even those that produce less likely solutions, and giving our views as to what they would mean for the UK's weather should they verify. Whether or not they actually come to pass in reality will take care of itself at a later time, but surely the point of this thread is for us to discuss what may/may not happen, regardless of how likely/unlikely a given solution is to verify when the time comes.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
08 December 2020 18:33:32


 


Always at Day 10. We are like addicts. We know the inevitable come down will happen, but we still allow ourselves to be sucked in everytime! 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


It's true I've definitely had a life long addiction to the white stuff.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Remove ads from site

Ads