theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

White Meadows
08 December 2020 18:36:47
Well the perpetual nuisance that’s the Azores high looks firmly bedded in to spoil any fun, yet again this month.
Too many factors against us as usual and a green Christmas nosing it’s way onto the horizon in the ensembles.
Brian Gaze
08 December 2020 18:39:00

12z update keeps me in the 20% to 30% bracket. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
White Meadows
08 December 2020 18:41:02
Met office long ranger now going with:
“ Temperatures are likely to be at or slightly above average for this time of year” which backs the awful output for coldies.
Whether Idle
08 December 2020 18:42:01


12z update keeps me in the 20% to 30% bracket. 


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Agreed.  To anyone of a gambling persuasion, re a White Christmas  "Are you feeling lucky?".  


Very much an outside bet sadly.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Brian Gaze
08 December 2020 18:46:48

Met office long ranger now going with:
“ Temperatures are likely to be at or slightly above average for this time of year” which backs the awful output for coldies.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


For the sake of balance I would point out that is the 15 to 30 day period. It will be based on the ECM30 (or whatever it is called) model output. I've looked into that and believe the data is 24 hours stale at time of issue in the same way that GEFS35 is. If anyone else knows differently please correct me.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
08 December 2020 18:47:02

Met office long ranger now going with:
“ Temperatures are likely to be at or slightly above average for this time of year” which backs the awful output for coldies.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Which output covers that time period?

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
fairweather
08 December 2020 18:51:53


 


 


Disingenuous post. 


You forecast headline news, which didn't transpire.


There were isolated local incidents. 


You know your stuff but your posts would carry more weight were you prepared to concede a point: if anything, your mild/wet ramping has become even more pronounced in recent times and it is leading others astray IMO. 


I'm all for balance but I have to filter out so many mild ramps on here these days it makes the forum less useful as a forecasting tool. 


 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


 ...... what last year? Surely that was an extremely mild wet winter. Not fair to call it ramping. Who is led astray? Surely we all have our own opinions.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
White Meadows
08 December 2020 19:04:40


 


Which output covers that time period?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

All credible evolutions point to this scenario.

doctormog
08 December 2020 19:07:53


All credible evolutions point to this scenario.


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


That didn’t answer my question. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
marco 79
08 December 2020 19:19:29
Looks slighter milder than average from Thurs / Fri...Signals from the perts look a little cooler from the 20th...7 perts take us below -5c towards the end of the latest GFS as we head into xmas..Op is wildly swinging atm...Will it start to firm up ?..or keep forever expanding cold setups in the unreliable until the 12th of never..Any how the last few days has given us some cooler days since Dec 2017...so a little bonus
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
DPower
08 December 2020 19:23:11
The other forum is arife with speculation ie SSW, split vortices, etc,etc leading to cold nevarna. Models far less keen at the moment . Maybe it's all just a tease we shall see. Met office Chas done an about turn on their 15 and 30 after from yesterday but that means very little.
tallyho_83
08 December 2020 19:37:17


Never mind day 10, at day 15 there's a reasonable chance of snow across a fair bit of the UK: https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/runs/2020120812/gensprob-26-360.png


 


Meanwhile P28 serves up the first -15C of the season 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Like this?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Downpour
08 December 2020 19:48:19


 


 ...... what last year? Surely that was an extremely mild wet winter. Not fair to call it ramping. Who is led astray? Surely we all have our own opinions.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


 


We also have it all summer! 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
ballamar
08 December 2020 19:52:33


All credible evolutions point to this scenario.


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


are you some sort of riddler? Or can you not give a straight answer?

Rob K
08 December 2020 19:56:16

The other forum is arife with speculation ie SSW, split vortices, etc,etc leading to cold nevarna. Models far less keen at the moment . Maybe it's all just a tease we shall see. Met office Chas done an about turn on their 15 and 30 after from yesterday but that means very little.

Originally Posted by: DPower 


Any word from Dave?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Whether Idle
08 December 2020 19:59:07


 


Any word from Dave?


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Cameron has been very quiet since 23 June 2016.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
DPower
08 December 2020 21:11:27


 


Any word from Dave?


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Well you know Dave rabbit,rabbit.


 


 


 

Saint Snow
08 December 2020 21:17:53


Well you know Dave rabbit,rabbit.


Originally Posted by: DPower 


 


There ain't no pleasin' you. 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gandalf The White
08 December 2020 21:42:08

The ECM 12z ensemble mean for T+240 suggests quite a strong signal for a robust Arctic High and a split PV. In most years this would be a source of encouragement and optimism.



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Sevendust
08 December 2020 21:47:37


Any word from Dave?


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes - not too much excitement in the next 10 days. On balance, the Atlantic influences things too much so will be generally average. Deep FI has some rogue cold runs towards xmas but who knows at that range

Brian Gaze
08 December 2020 21:53:45

The other forum is arife with speculation ie SSW, split vortices, etc,etc leading to cold nevarna. Models far less keen at the moment . Maybe it's all just a tease we shall see. Met office Chas done an about turn on their 15 and 30 after from yesterday but that means very little.

Originally Posted by: DPower 


Always a concern if that becomes one of the great hopes by December 8th.  

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
White Meadows
08 December 2020 22:13:21


 


Always a concern if that becomes one of the great hopes by December 8th.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Quite. It always feels a bit last resort, split vortex this, split vortex that. Fact is any ‘robust’ arctic high remains in fantasy land and continues to evade the reliable timeframe. 

Gandalf The White
08 December 2020 22:22:26


Quite. It always feels a bit last resort, split vortex this, split vortex that. Fact is any ‘robust’ arctic high remains in fantasy land and continues to evade the reliable timeframe. 


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Actually the split PV and Arctic High are present by Day 5, which is in the reliable timeframe.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


idj20
08 December 2020 22:24:56

Note how the the two "big boys" (ECM and GFS) are showing a similar thing with a compact but lively "spinner" low at around the 150 hr mark (on the 14th). A potentially stormy start to the new working week for some parts of the UK if that came off but is subject to change given the time frame, just that the similarity just seemed uncanny from afar.

Folkestone Harbour. 
nsrobins
08 December 2020 22:44:02
Looks like GFS is pushing more energy into the Atlantic and the HLB doesn’t materialise again.
More runs . . . (etc)
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Remove ads from site

Ads