Is this the moomin thread or model output ? There is a hide user posts option if people feel any particular poster is not bringing value to the thread.

Originally Posted by: backtobasics 

To offer myself as a mediator - I think what people are saying is if you reference the models you are using to support your position we can debate and analyse and agree or disagree.

Without data you’re resorting to, in your words, ‘gut instinct’ and this thread isn’t really the place for that.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Have just waded through the moomin "wiff waff" debates, and that's 10 wasted minutes of my life I won't get back.

As others have suggested this is not the thread for that type of discussion.......let's stay on topic please.

Originally Posted by: llamedos 

What's the latest news on the SSW? Or more to the point how many have we had and how many more are on the way? Have the effects started filtering down to the 500hPa level in the models or not? 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

What's the latest news on the SSW? Or more to the point how many have we had and how many more are on the way? Have the effects started filtering down to the 500hPa level in the models or not? 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Take your pick:

GEM 00z @ 240Z gives us an easterly:

ECM 00Z @ 240Z gives us a westerly:

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Para on Meteociel and Wetter is stuck at +102z is anyone else having issues with GFS para?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

What's the latest news on the SSW? Or more to the point how many have we had and how many more are on the way? Have the effects started filtering down to the 500hPa level in the models or not? 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The coldest GEFS run "on the ground" at least in the south isn't very impressive in terms of 850s (around -7C lowest) but it does have a perfect textbook example of a Channel low which results in a run of ice days down here, so I will post it purely for the sake of cherry picking and because it looks nice.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The coldest GEFS run "on the ground" at least in the south isn't very impressive in terms of 850s (around -7C lowest) but it does have a perfect textbook example of a Channel low which results in a run of ice days down here, so I will post it purely for the sake of cherry picking and because it looks nice.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Its still a very exciting of period of weather / model watching with the cold period having commenced today lasting until Tues/Weds.

In that time there is the prospect of short notice troughs, secondary lows and other organised areas of precipitation moving across in cold air. Thicknesses are often between 519-524dam with 850's below -5c and low pressure on the scene.

I think I will be unlucky if I don't get to observe another high ground brief snow event this weekend. As a result the camera is charged in readiness and on standby.

As you know I don't follow specific model analysis after 144 hours as its an inefficient use of my time but I do look at ensembles. There is enough interest for me after the 27-30th milder blip to hope for more exciting synoptics as we move into early February.

One final point and without being controversial. I believe way too many members on this forum focus on charts at over 168 hours and actually miss what is going on before then. Only last night heavy snowfall fell briefly across vast swathes of the country briefly, something that will repeated in the next few days. I see the words 'surprise' being mentioned when it actual fact if you spent more time looking at the close range high resolution models that wouldn't have been the case.

Focus on the here and now and not the future and your love for the 'actual weather' will soon return. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Have just waded through the moomin "wiff waff" debates, and that's 10 wasted minutes of my life I won't get back.

As others have suggested this is not the thread for that type of discussion.......let's stay on topic please.

Originally Posted by: llamedos 

Its still a very exciting of period of weather / model watching with the cold period having commenced today lasting until Tues/Weds.

In that time there is the prospect of short notice troughs, secondary lows and other organised areas of precipitation moving across in cold air. Thicknesses are often between 519-524dam with 850's below -5c and low pressure on the scene.

I think I will be unlucky if I don't get to observe another high ground brief snow event this weekend. As a result the camera is charged in readiness and on standby.

As you know I don't follow specific model analysis after 144 hours as its an inefficient use of my time but I do look at ensembles. There is enough interest for me after the 27-30th milder blip to hope for more exciting synoptics as we move into early February.

One final point and without being controversial. I believe way too many members on this forum focus on charts at over 168 hours and actually miss what is going on before then. Only last night heavy snowfall fell briefly across vast swathes of the country briefly, something that will repeated in the next few days. I see the words 'surprise' being mentioned when it actual fact if you spent more time looking at the close range high resolution models that wouldn't have been the case.

Focus on the here and now and not the future and your love for the 'actual weather' will soon return. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

I suppose, the term Model Output thread means exactly that, but I agree with you 100% 72 to 96 hours is about it for me for the real information, anything beyond, currently what with the state of uncertainty with SSW effects, PV splits is a little difficult.  One thing that does seem to have established is the promise, quickly nullified by the Atlantic followed by another promise, but with an overall cooling trend.  It certainly isnt mild anywhere in the UK for this time of year with temperatures at or slightly below average to the south, with a slightly below to cold in the north.  

Originally Posted by: Phil24 

Until now, I have done what most adults do, if you dont like what you read, ignore it.  I for one do find the guys post rather daft at times and rarely come with any evidence to support his claims.  Then on the other hand, the same can be said with those posting charts ten days out with JFF comments in the hope that they just might verify.

To be honest, the likelihood, is that he may well will be correct with his current observations, with a little license to elaborate without a JFF comment (maybe he should add one).

This guy clearly looks at winter from a perspective that most using this facility dont agree with, doesnt make him any different to the majority of those posting wishful charts from LaLa land that never verify.

If you dont like his observations, move on.  Whatever happened to tolerance, particularly of those with an opposing view to your own. 

Originally Posted by: Phil24