Southern Scotland is getting plastered if the ICON is right.

 

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ARPEGE18z only goes to 60h so can't say as much.

However at 60h it looks less progressive than the ICON.

Which would have the air even further south by Wednesday.

 

As I say if ICON/ARPEGE are anywhere near right then S Scotland could see a huge amount of snow.

 

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A couple days ago tuesdays band was to make it out the north of Scotland, arome shows it getting no further than central belt before sliding back se.  This would tie in with south scotland getting a decent amount of snow.  Wed/thurs was shown as snow then rain for all and still making it out into north sea. Will see in next day or two if that one is pushed back too.

 

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To show how wildly the models have flip flopped:

Pay attention to the heights esp over Greenland and N. POLE

12z @ 294z:

 

18z @ 288z

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BBC were not buying any significant snow for 28th.. infact the graphics just jumped and it was just glossed over.

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Massive Scandi-Sib high on the GFS 18z... but all the cold air has vanished.
Parallel builds the high further SE and gives us southerlies instead.

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GFS 18z 850 hPa ensemble mean(London) is a complete fail ampared with last night's. Towards the end of the run values are back up to the mean. The good news is it's complete noise anyway from February 1st so until there is cross model agreement anything is still on the cards, other than if there is doubt usually mild wins out!

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With respect to The GFS, the longer term ensembles (Feb 1 on) merely reflect the look of the synoptics shown by the OP charts in the week shead in that they have a certain random flavour about them.  However most of us don't want noise, we want sweet music....

Gfs 00z ensembles are awful this morning

ECM looking to introduce some form of Scandi high end of next week, keeping most of us under westerlies of course (this seems to be the new normal with Scandi highs)

Looking out the window now for this precipitation to arrive ...will it be rain or snow?

P29 is interesting on the GFS, maintaining a cold flow and 850s around -10C for about 10 days...

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https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=00&charthour=1&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20type 

Arpege is interesting this morning the rain on Tuesday barely makes it past the midlands which turns to snow in places and then again Thursday it doesn’t make it very far north and brings quite a snow event to England and Wales. May just be one run and others aren’t showing this but interesting just the same. I’m hoping to be right in one of the sweet spots today for snow in North Northants.

Tom

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Stole my post 😃😃 came here to say thr same thing

 

Very interesting indeed!!

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Snow cover in europe still widespread http://zoz.cbk.waw.pl/snieg/en/  - except of course for the parts nearest to UK so we still need a good long fetch easterly - start looking...

Some encouragement from http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 as blob of very cold air moves towards the Baltic in week 2 but still very wet over the south of the UK  for those two weeks

GFS op has w-ly pattern bringing in LP closer than yesterday's forecast; Fri 29th 975 mb NI, Sun 31st  985mb Cornwall, Wed 3rd 995 mb N Sea (this one a secondary to the main LP near Iceland) before HP finally develops over S Norway 1045mb Tue 9th with an E-ly of sorts (by which I mean the source of the air is more SE than NE)

GEFS in the S temp below norm to Wed 27th, a bit above (less than previous forecast) to Sun 31st, then with less certainty than before the mean is consistently below norm but this reflects a wide range between mild and v cold. A fair bit of rain in week 1, tailing off in week 2. For the N, the same trends though the temp drops back below norm a day or two earlier, and not as much rain - or maybe snow with several double-digit snow row figures.

ECM similar to GFS though the HP over Scandi develops a day or two earlier and by end of run Wed 3rd does have a long run of E-lies reaching as far as the Baltic.

 

For my opinion, watch that spun-off LP on Wed 3rd - if it deepens markedly it could easily flip the UK pattern into a really cold E-ly - and of course, vice versa

 

 

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ECM almost gets there with a Scandi high. GFS looks fairly complex early stages but could be cold next weekend

GFS nose of high close to bringing in cold from Scandi next week see is it can build

 

Sorry mate, but yes very interesting considering the Arpege is stingy with forecast snow!

Tom

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yes highly possibly...1987  came in at late notice if I remember right.

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06z GEFS certainly showing a mild beasterly in development now, where any high pressure sits in our small part of the world is anyone’s guess. Some flatlining starting to appear and Aberdeen ensemble never rises much at all. 
Martin

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Six members of the 6Z GFS dip below -10C. Hopefully this morning’s snow won’t be the only batch of the winter.

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Looks quite mixed to me. Things could flip but the last 4 GEFS updates don't look very solid

 

February prospects remain uncertain. Last 4 GEFS updates suggest a 32% to 52% chance of <-4C 850hPa returning by February 8th. Cluster analysis here https://t.co/cWraMTHdt6 pic.twitter.com/H0yPjbEsgC

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) January 24, 2021

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Might just be the manky day down here but the latest runs are all leaving me a bit 'meh'. 

Less of a cold signal in the latter stages of both the GFS and ECM ens down here, with ECM set showing a signal towards more in the way average or slightly above average temps towards the end of the run. There's still a signal for colder air, just the milder signal is stronger IMO. 

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Tunbridge Wells District | Meteologix.com

GFS 6z op seems to fire a few noticeable jet pulses our way and the more active Atlantic helps to keep cold away from MBY (other than the odd fleeting visit). Further North at least the ens scatter is often mostly below the mean, which suggests a continuation of the current set up - LPs moving through and the track being largely south enough to keep Scotland cool or cold. 

All in all just seems like the direction of travel is away from a colder solution to me at present and a continuation of cold but not cold enough and wet with it isn't filling me with enthusiasm. I guess there's enough colder options around to give some cause for optimism and the 6z ens do water down the extent of the mild period although 'water down' is probably going to be annoyingly accurate for here.

I generally try not to get excited or depressed by one or 2 ens sets but struggling with that today. Hopefully the 12zs will cheer me up a bit

 

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I’m still not too enthused by the longer term but if things fall into place ‘correctly’ we might get lucky in early Feb. I’m convinced we’re seeing a reaction to the shenanigans higher up (and MJO/ENSO drivers) but as usual it’s a bit of a lottery if we turn an ace in our small part of the world.

The rain earlier now dried-up and it’s a nice fresh sunny day down here.

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Interesting GFS 12z so far with LP energy in atlantic slipping se wards each time, I haven't been watching closely this weekend so not sure if a continuation of a trend ?

Yes, a lot of cold rain looks likely, with unsettled conditions and even the risk of cool easterly muck for northern parts. This is a prime example:

About as grim as it gets.

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Flooding looks to be the main concern during the next 10 days IMO. 

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