Yes, if GFS is on the money. However, GEM is very interesting and I think has performed quite well this winter. A half way house between the two could be REALLY interesting. ECM was trending that way this morning too.

I don't think we've seen the last of the snow yet...and I do feel that March will deliver something significant.

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_240_1.png 

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And so the GFS and ICON have swapped places on the 12z.

And so at T+72 hours we still have no idea whether Northern England will be mild with 8C or snowy at 2C.

12Z GFS vs 6Z at 84h. A world of difference.

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Arpege is going for a big snow event in much of the country on Thursday. Wow!

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That's quite a cold pool building just to the North East on that gfs op run. Just need a LP to under cut, and we're in business.
There could be some big dippers amongst the ens scatter in FI.

The uncertainty about the extent of the mild air is very clear in the GFS 12z ensemble data. By 00:00 on Friday the t850hPa range here is +4.8°C to -8.9°C (and the range is much smaller before and after).

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I honestly think the ARPEGE will be right.

Have it so far south I miss out completely. At 51 HOURS how can there be so much uncertainty!

 

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Lol makes me feel like Doc ;-) 

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Not sure whether to be honoured or offended. 

If the GFS 12z op run came to fruition the depth of snow in the East Highlands would be remarkable (none here of course) I would expect it to be a bit of a colder outlier later in the ensemble suite.

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Critical week this week for this (halfwayhouse ) winter....

Chart of the winter for me...

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It looks rather unpleasant with lots of cold rain about at that time point. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2021012412/gem-2-150.png?12

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haha honoured of course! :D

In terms of the models - lots more chilly weather, chance of marginal snow events with some temporary milder air. Rain around the coasts. Lots of uncertainty. The potential for A LOT of snow over the hills as you say Doc. 

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FWIW this is the corresponding uppers chart. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_150_2.png

I’d suggest a fair bit of snow too. 

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Ukmo looks very promising at +144

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ECM more similar to ARPEGE. This  is Wednesday. ECM would offer the potential for a disruptive snow event.

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12z ECM t+144

A bit of hope for the Kent crew? 

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Think the Para has something similar happening.

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It seems to me at this stage to be GEM/ECM/UKMO v GFS.

The first three are bringing cold back fairly soon. Exciting times ahead.

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CFS (albeit poorly respected) now showing a freezing February 🥶


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif 

It certainly looks tonight that mild weather will be short lived and may not arrive at all in the north. 

LOTS to keep us on our toes over the next week - marginal being a key word. Potentially a fair bit of snow in central areas especially with altitude. 

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.

GEFS35 also suggesting below average temps for much of Feb.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850temp_35day&lglocation=London&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

 

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Control screams topplers to me

That would fit with Met office mid-late Feb narrative also 

 

ECM goes a bit "meh" past 144hrs but interesting before then.

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Personally I don't think that it would take much of a switch to see colder conditions extending across a wider part of the UK in the coming week to 10 days! GEM 12z is a case in point.

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