Maybe one day one of these extreme charts will actually verify.  

After a mild spell looks like we are back into the marginal snow event territory.  Obviously better the further north you are. 

Annoying nudge of Azores Iberian high is just enough to prevent this winter from being a classic.

I think you'll have a long wait for a +15C 850hPa !

It is turning into a unique winter IMO.

Classic? Anything but classic for the SW IMO - yes in terms of model watching and persistent -AO/NAO and zonal winds etc as well as northern blocking yes but the fact we have had no sustained cold and persistent rain and cold rain for many isn't a classic by any means - we haven't had a classical cold spell. Yesterday was perhaps the only day where the SW has not seen rain since 1st of January. We have more rain today, tomorrow and so on..? Just milder weather but wetter.

GEM @ t +144 brings snow to the South and south west: -Temporary easterly winds:

GFS Op 06z run shows south westerly's:

FI clearly at t96 at most. A ridiculous variety of charts on offer at t120 on 6z GEFS.

More runs are needed.

Yes, what happens at 120/144t is significant in determining our weather for the initial weeks of February I reckon. The ECM and GFS 00z Op runs were progressive at that point in driving the Atlantic LP through the UK preventing any height rises to the NE.

The GFS 6z Op isn't as progressive, but still ends up in Atlantic domination. Interestingly though the 6z ENS are very split at 120/144 with a cluster showing a slider and significant pressure rises to the NE; 1,4,5,6,10,19 & 25. Many others are a half way house between this cluster and the 6z Op, which I reckon will be at the milder end of the ENS suite post 144.

Seen this on one chart. Wonder if it will come off.

GEM quite isolated now with the ‘weekend wedge’ developments. Most suites have it - temporary wedge with a short easterly / but only GEM goes on to build the wedge NE into a Scandy high.

It’s persistence is commendable, but ultimately likely to be unfounded unless there’s a significant shift from the big three.

Agree, the broader pattern suggests a fairly flat southerly tracking jet stream, so cool rather than cold with some transient snow, colder in the north.  Nothing too exciting at the moment but quite unusual.

Was yesterday's 12z? Since then we have had gradual downgrades.

Im expecting  / hoping the GEM will be joined by at least one of the big 3 on the 12zs

But synoptically similar: GFS has a weaker ridge and puts it over Norway and Denmark and into Germany v GEM putting the ridge over the northern North Sea. Then the southern extension of the ridge on GFS prevents the GEM trough from sliding under.  

That's why, in these finely balanced situations, the edge of reliability is only 4-5 days away (and never mind the finer detail).

Yes very little to go on there? We usually have one model which gives us hope for a northerly or easterly beit the parallel, Control, or GFS op run or ECM but neither at the moment although GEM still looks consistent. Just looks like a few lows taking a southerly track. Again no signs of a northerly let alone easterly and no signs of any drier weather coming our way but then again no signs of anything particularly mild - just depressingly cold and with more cold rain for many parts esp the south and the snow (if any would be wet sleety transient stuff) - let's hope things change and the GEM is correct?

I wonder what the Met Office forecast will be today: - Not being funny and sorry to go OT but there is very little signs of high pressure with frost and or fog in any of the models from what I can see, if anything having seen the models on wetter they have trended wetter and seems to be a wetter signal (no pun intended and now the models go out to 11th February? We need to dry out at some point. I guess after no real cold and true severe easterly despite all this HLB - I wouldn't mind just having 2-3 days of sunny dry weather. Surely we have all had enough of the rain now? Surely? - Still time of course.

Met Office said:

Saturday 30 Jan - Monday 8 Feb

Unsettled conditions look likely to dominate for this period, with low pressure across the UK. Therefore, this should bring changeable weather to most of the country, with periods of rain, showers, and strong winds at times. While mild westerly and southwesterly winds are expected to be dominant for most of the period, occasional colder northerly winds are possible, bringing a chance of snowfall, likely confined to far northern parts. Towards the end of the period, we may see high pressure bringing a higher than average chance of cold weather more widely with wintry outbreaks. If this were to occur many inland and southern areas would likely see drier than average conditions, with some overnight frost and fog.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 26 Jan 2021

Monday 8 Feb - Monday 22 Feb

Confidence is low for this period, but current signals indicate a possible high pressure system around or near the UK during this period. This would likely bring cold northerly winds, producing colder than average temperatures and wintry outbreaks. The second half of February is likely to have a mixture of weather types, with periods of wet, windy, and milder weather interspersed with drier, calmer, and colder periods.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 26 Jan 2021