Met Office Hadley        5.7c      Anomaly      -1.0c provisional to 11th

Metcheck                     5.16c    Anomaly      -2.86c

Netweather                  5.71c    Anomaly      -2.4c

Peasedown St John     5.17c    Anomaly      -3.23c.  

The last time April was colder than March was in 2012. That year saw a March CET of 8.3C.

The last time that April was colder than March when the March CET was below 7C was 1978. In that year the April CET was 6.5C and the March CET 6.7C. We would have been under 7C this March had it not been for the very mild final couple of days.

The last time the CET for the first few months of the year was similar to this year was 1977. In that year there were 5 consecutive months more than 0.5C below the 1971-2000 mean - from April to August with 7.2C in April and just 12.2C in June. After March we had to wait until October for an above-average month.

The current CET mean up to today by my estimations stands at just 5.07C.

Cold but nothing remarkable. There have been plenty of colder years since 1950.

Coldest first 12 days of April since 1950

1958  4.01C
1968  4.21C
1970  4.00C
1975  4.53C
1986  4.03C
2013  4.33C

Please not another summer like 1977! That was truly awful, especially coming after the amazing summer of 1976.  

Yes it was a bit grim. July was a very dry month though but the relentless cool wind direction was a pain

The most gradual of warm-ups has been gathering some momentum in the model output these past few days.

GFS 00z continues that theme right to the end of its run, which by my crude estimate is enough to lift the CET into the low 7s.

So, there's a legitimate chance that the April colder than a not especially warm March statistic doesn't come about.

Enough to stop me wondering whether I should have been bolder with my prediction. Despite being near the bottom of the spread, it's less than a degree below average - but maybe that will prove wise. Maybe .

Met Office Hadley        5.6c       Anomaly      -1.2c provisional to 12th

Metcheck                     5.08c     Anomaly      -2.94c

Netweather                  5.57c     Anomaly      -2.54c

Peasedown St John     5.6c      Anomaly     -1.08c.   

It's funny what tricks the mind plays on memories. I remember distinctly the terrible weather during the Silver Jubilee celebrations but I'd totally forgotten the warm spell of early July when Scotland had a heatwave that would rival recent ones up there. 1977 was certainly a summer where any warmth was spread around the country ...

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/SO_5bcb0eb2-c4bf-46f8-b835-ce1cd0dfed25/

My first PM to GW was for 6.6c - a mistype that I quickly corrected.

Starting to wish I'd not noticed my error!

This month is not panning out anything like I expected. Another spectacular fail for me is looking on the cards unless we have an incredible flip to heat in the last week!
At least I'm in esteemed company at the top end of the April estimates 

Met Office Hadley       5.6c      Anomaly      -1.2c provisional to 13th

Metcheck                    5.18c    Anomaly       -2.84c

Netweather                 5.58c     Anomaly      -2.53c

Peasedown St John     5.44c    Anomaly      -2.96c.                   

The CET really is going to struggle over the next ten 10 days. 

High pressure close enough to the keep nights chilly but with a cool air source lacking continentality that brings the likelihood of convective daytime infill suppressing daytime maximum temperatures.

My 9.3c prediction is an unmitigated disaster. As things stand we will struggle to get a CET above 7c this month ! 

Met Office Hadley        5.7c       Anomaly     -1.2  Provisional to 1th

Metcheck                     5.17c     Anomaly     -2.85c

Netweather                  5.65c     Anomaly     -2.46c

Peasedown St John      5.45c     Anomaly     -2.95c. 

Shame there's no World Cup this year....

Met Office Hadley       5.6c      Anomaly     -1.3c provisional to 15th

Metcheck                    5.12c     Anomaly     -2.9oc

Netweather                 5.64c     Anomaly     -2.47c

Peasedown St John    5.33c      Anomaly     -3.07c.                 

1966? 1977? Let's hope it is different to both of them. Especially with many people staying in the UK. Neither of these summers were up to much. 

Whoosh. Oh never mind.

Coldest average minimum CET returns for 1-16 April since 1878

1917  -1.21C
1924   0.48C
2021   0.55C est.
1968   0.70C
1958   0.88C

1981-2010 mean for 1-16 April is 3.68C. So we are 3C below average.

Here is the latest April CET tracker. Looks really cold. This is based on the 0z ECM which was a cold run.

Almost every day is below average on this tracker. My CET estimate is running well below the Hadley provisional data at present. So expect a very large downward adjustment this month.

The current estimate is a final CET of 6.85C which would make this the coldest April since 1989 when the figure was 6.6C.

Chart 1

Chart 2

1917 was incedible, so much lower than anything else. Looking at the reanalysis charts, very nasty indeed.