Definitely wasn't 2011! That is the warmest April on record, Easter was the last weekend of that April and it was 23C that Good Friday, remember even hearing thunder that evening.

Jetstream currently running weakly W-ly across the UK until about Tue 30th when two prominent loops develop, one S of Newfoundland, the other near Iceland. The latter supports a strong N-ly branch over the UK around Sun 4th, before the whole lot simplifies into a single stream across Europe S of the UK Fri 9th. 

The 16-dayer has quite a steep temp gradient across the UK, SW-NE, in week 2, with below-zero returning to the Highlands Rainfall switches from the N in week 1 to the S in week 2

GFS runs the expected trough across the UK Fri 26th and then has a deep but more localised depression N of Scotland Mon 29th. The latter transfers to N Norway and after a quiet period gathers strength to project NE-lies across the UK Sat 3rd. By Tue 6th this is anchored by twin LP centres, one over Norway and the other over Biscay. The system gradually decays over the following few days to give slack pressure over UK but with residual cold air.

GEFS as previously; temps dip on Fri 26th then mild in the S for a few days (perhaps only 1 day in Scotland) before a long period with most runs below norm but more variation than shown previously (op & control going in different directions, choice of other runs from 5C below norm to 5C above, so confidence low). A little rain towards end of period Sat 10th, could be snow in E and especially far N.

ECM similar but the NE-ly flow is concentrated  over the SE while NW Scotland is under the influence of HP in the Atlantic. Only a small shift in the location of pressure centres but a big difference in Scottish weather.

My Birthday is looking cold 

Followed by a cold Northerly flow 

Yes we had a short-lived 10cm fall in April 2008 here - and then another fall in October the same year. That seemed to usher in the snowier period around 2009-2012.

BTW has anyone else got weird gaps in the forecasts on the BBC site? Quite a few time intervals just show a blank towards the end of the period here: GU46 - BBC Weather

Yes BBC having issues Bishops Stortford has no temperatures at all. It also had mist forecast every day earlier. 

Looks like a disappointingly cold start to April.  Probably some decent hail and snow showers around though.

[quote=Rob K;1328913]

Yes we had a short-lived 10cm fall in April 2008 here - and then another fall in October the same year. That seemed to usher in the snowier period around 2009-2012.

BTW has anyone else got weird gaps in the forecasts on the BBC site? Quite a few time intervals just show a blank towards the end of the period here: GU46 - BBC Weather

[/quot  e]  remember that well   Sunday 6 April  we had 4 inches even on the seafront in Eastbourne  and temp below freezing most of day  remarkable for this location.  Best late season snowfall for many a year here 

First 10 days of April is looking a bit cold 

16-dayer showing the Spring warm-up in week 2 by-passing the UK and moving into C/E Europe, while the UK, if anything, gets colder from the north. Band of rain across the N of UK and across to Norway in week 1 shifts to the S of UK and across to the Med in week 2.

GFS - strong SW-lies and HP over France to Tue 30th suddenly flips as HP moves to C Atlantic and N-lies set in under influence of LP over Norway - tentatively at first but a full-on Arctic blast Mon 5th. This is only brief as the worst of the cold shifts E-wards as new HP arises over N Sea 1035mb Wed 7th and a full-on S-ly by Fri 9th!

GEFS - in the S, brief very mild spell around Mon 29th has abrupt end Wed 1st with the majority of runs then some 7C below norm gradually recovering to norm Sun 11th - it's only the op run which is  a major warm outlier matching the synoptics above . Small amounts of rain from Thu 1st onwards. Similar in Scotland but mild spell at first is shorter with some rain; and a few very cold outliers around Tue 6th with some high snow row figures.

Not much sign of consistency in the GFS suite - alternating S-ly and N-ly flows, and actual weather for UK depending critically on whether these flows establish just to the W or just to the E.

ECM has the initial stages of the N-ly spell held to the other side of the N Sea so not too cold but fully agrees with the Arctic blast on Mon 5th

One of the most extreme polar plunges I can recall seeing.

Looks very 1975 that. We were midway through a very cold and wintry month long spell at that point

Thankfully there is nothing cold heading this way by the 5th on the ECM 00z op run 

I'm surprised the 8 to 16 day chart is not showing darker greens and even blues over the UK. It does look as if we're in for a proper cold spell. Perhaps the brief warmer interludes are offsetting it?

All in all, after a fairly bland March, end of March and early April are looking much more interesting. A brief hint of summer is likely in the south early next week with temperatures into the low 20s in a few favoured spots. This looks to be followed by a return to winter, at least for a few days. 

Personally, I love the 'battle' between strengthening sun and Arctic cold that we can get this time of year 

Pretty much sums up spring in this country.  Even the great purple one knew that Sometimes it snows in April 

Some very warm air first though 23c forecast for Tuesday which is date record territory. 

This one is fairly funny. Even in April that would give an ice day to many northern parts.

I haven't seen the GFS for a while now as I am in spring mode and especially after that failed easterly back in February after the models showed so much potential but delivered little I lost interest.

I do occasionally check this forum and had a quick look at GFS. I can't find the parallel run. So I assume it's been taken down or heard rumours the operational is the new parallel? Anyway. I agree with you. It's sods law we get a prior northerly over Easter....just wish these charts occurred in the winter months. I bet this colder spell will get upgraded as well. Just when we don't want cold weather. But on the flip side this use to be quite normal I remember in the 00s and 90s we had snow over Easter. I remember April 1998/April 1999 very well and also the snowfall in early April 2008 during the Olympic torch run in London. It is fair to say that have perhaps been spoilt with warm springs over the recent years.

Back to the models (if they verify!) Having seen the ENS - we could be in for a long cold spell early April which will be a shock to wildlife after potential of reaching 20c Wednesday. 

I just wish we could see charts like this in the winter but NO they get downgraded of course. 🙄

HERE'S WINTER!!!!!!!

H

16-dayer showing a resurgence of cold air over Scandi and to a lesser extent over UK in week 2, and main rain area as yesterday transferring from N of UK to S of it.

GFS - troughs moving through ATM but massive bulge of HP, a plume even, by Tue 30th 1035mb N France, but just as quickly slips away to mid Atlantic ushering in N-lies by Thu 1st, weak at first and converting to E-lies Sun 4th as pressure drops over France and then some colder NE-lies Wed 7th (not a N-ly as yesterday). The direct feed drops off but cold air remains over UK as LPs move in from the Atlantic and sit off Cornwall from Sat 10th. The deep Lp over Scandi is in place from Wed 7th and still a possible menace through to Mon 12th.

GEFS - for the S - ridiculously mild ca Tue 30th followed by a drop >15C overnight and then consistently cold (ca 5C below norm) through to Sun 11th - and good agreement, too. Small amounts of rain from time to time. Similar in Scotland, a little less consistent and rather more rain - or maybe snow, the snow row figures even for Edinburgh are high teens for a week or so either side of Thu 8th.

ECM - Similar to GFS up to Sun 4th, but then sticking with the original and very cold direct N-ly Mon 5th which persists.

Note: clocks go forward tonight so owing to domestic circumstances I may not always be able to wait for ECM 00z to load when posting this review, for the period of BST (ECM 00z appears in stages, & doesn't finish before 0700 GMT)