GFS doesn't want to relent just yet with the cool theme. But high pressure looks like dominating again after a week or so. 

We're reaching the stage where it won't take much to start importing heat (or at least warmth) from Scandinavia.

Yes, always a sign we've reached late Spring / early Summer when that happens. 

Certainly a lot of promise in the GFS op this morning in the latter reaches.

High pressure and sunshine will feel very nice at this time of the year regardless of the airmass. 

If it happens of course! Although it has appeared in a fair few ops now. 

16 dayer shows some warmth developing in Europe S of the Alps but N Europe remans cool, even cold over UK and Norway. Rain in week 1 in a band from N Spain to S Finland incl Uk breaks up into patches in week 2 - Portugal, Alps, Baltic states, and of course England/S Scotland.

Jetstream quite string and waving over England/France until Sun 9th, then a loop develops with strong flow from S close to E England  to Wed12th, followed by a confused period in which it mostly avoids the UK, finally Thu 20th becoming two streams as it was for much of April, weak to the N of UK and stronger through the Med.

GFS - today's LP moving away NE wards, succeeded by 985mb Ireland Sun 9th, also moves off to NE. Then Hp appears on Atlantic and from Fri 14th  through to Tue 18th forms an arc in general from SW Ireland to Faeroes to N Norway, importing warm air N wards but leaving England under E-lies controlled by LP over France. 

FAX still showing a channel-running LP on Thu 6th but nearer France than yesterday, agreed by Arpege which keeps the rain offshore in the Channel 

GEFS - for the S, cool/cold now, burst of warmth with rain Sun 9th, then cool again for several days but recovering irregularly to norm. Less rain in forecast than yesterday but not entirely dry. Similar for Scotland but wetter and cooler. Doesn't match the synoptics above.

ECM - shows that LP over Ireland but is slower to move it out of the way; also no trace of HP in Atlantic but LP 995 mb Fri 14th off SW Ireland.

This morning, if you pick the right run of the right model, you can have any weather you want!

 It is early May so i dont know why that would be.

No.

Writing off summer on 4 May. Maybe a record?

Don't think so, at least not in the SE & in September!

Though, don't think June, July & August will be great overall.

Will see.

You can pretty much guarantee there will be some close to record breaking high temps down here in the S.E. at some point this summer. There is every year now!

Will the extended blocks of weather continue? Since last April here we have gone six months dry and warm and sunny, 5 months of incessant rain and now into third month of dry, cold and breezy. We no longer get traditional changeable weather, just long spells of different contrasting types.

No surprise but the 06z has reverted to unsettled throughout. 

Not completely of course not, but you get a feel for a general pattern setting up, and that is one of regular and quite intense northern blocking and southerly jet stream. That does not for a good summer bode well. 

Members will remember you doing similarly last year. 

Absolutely ridiculous in May. Bonkers. 

It is Star Wars day after all 

 Didn't temperatures last year exceed 37C in the UK? 

If I did, I would happily be shown the evidence that I did. If I recall, I think I was fairly non committal on last years prospects, but very happy to be proven otherwise.

I did see I commented on some particularly unsettled and cold ish looking charts in May and June but I see that I went for an average summer overall.

In fact, my exact phrase was it was likely to be bog standard British fare.

Apart from the brief hot spell, which we get every year, that was exactly what we had.

I certainly didn't write off the whole summer. I am not this year either, but I think it will be largely unsettled and cooler than average, albeit with some useable spells at times, but just not a particular good one.

You write off summer & winter pretty much every year lol.

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And yes, I am joking before people jump on me!

Just hope things improve soon.

Another nice GFS FI tonight.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_228_1.png

Careful there, somebody wioll be saying you predicted that would happen :)

But really, we would be approaching June 1975 territory with that one.

Fingers crossed. Winter is getting a bit tedious now. 

Saturday is looking likely to be quite a soaker for large swathes of England and Wales, including Kent where an inch could be possible. Good news for my already thirsty lawn, I suppose.