This mornings GFS now attempts to ridge in the Azores High and makes a reasonable attempt at doing so.
This time, GEM remains disturbed, cool and unsettled. Over to ECM again. This has a long way to run. Two steps forward, two back.

Edit: God, its like pulling teeth. ECM remains cool and unsettled after the promise of yesterday. Not looking great at all.

16-dayer shows warmer weather creeping north in week 2, but still nowhere near Britain. Focus of rain, as yesterday, shifts from S UK and C Europe week 1 to N Uk and Scandi week 2

Jetstream much as yesterday, running S of UK week 1, moving N and flowing across UK from NW week 2, soem suggestion of weakening towards end of that week.

GFS cool with generally LP from Atlantic t start with but new feature of much deeper depression Fri 21st 975mb off N Ireland, moving Ewards across Uk and filling over the weekend. Then  a long period with HP on the Atlantic to Wed 2nd but with Britain just too far east to gain benefit, still more affected by LP over N Sea or Baltic and N-ly winds. If the HP were to settle a couple of hundred miles further east ...

GEFS cool and showery to Thu 27th, then the runs open up - the majority near norm but a significant number including control much warmer (i.e if that HP above settles further east). All runs becoming dry-ish after the 27th.

EcM similar to GFS but slots in another LP Tue 25th 1000mb Scotland before developing the Atlantic HP

Bit of a mixed bag this morning,  GEFS look pretty good for a sustained pressure rise from about 25th. The Control run shows what could happen if we get lucky. ECM and GFS Ops both have  Scandi trough though so much cooler. 

So no smooth path to a flaming June but baby steps at least.

Signal for high pressure to build west / northwest. Glasgow data table below suggests high pressure having more influence than in the south east, e.g. London which can be viewed from the link. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=00&fv=MSLP&loc=London&lat=51.5&lon=0&p=&cty=

Significant development on the 12z GFS with High pressure slipping in sooner than previously shown. Hopefully a new trend. Over to the GEM and ECM.

Indeed… and GEM backs it!

16-dayer shows the Atlantic trying to push some warmth towards the UK in week 2 but at that stage only as far as France - but the cold 'bulge' has at least moved off to the east affecting Baltic state, Belarus and even down as far as Turkey. Rain in week 1 generally in Britain and across to N Europe, then drier here week 2 while new band sets up across Biscay to Alps.

GFS - the current diffuse area of LP over the UK becomes focused Fri 21st 985 mb N Ireland, slowly filling and moving NE, with a W-ly pattern until Thu 27th when the forecast HP from the Atlantic moves in after a short back-edge blast from the N. Today's version of the HP (unlike yesterday's, so not nailed on) shows it 1040mb centred NW Britain Sat 29th,some cooler E-lies for the S, eventually declining and moving to a 'normal' summer pattern with HP across the S of the UK and increasing W-ly influence further N by Thu 3rd.

GEFS remaining cool in most runs to Thu 27th when divergence sets in but with an increased proportion of warmer runs compared to yesterday raising the mean to  seasonal norm (op run is pessimistic for a few days longer). Generally drying up after 27th but still a few runs showing showers, more so in N. 

ECM similar to GFS but Friday's low takes longer to clear, still affecting UK Mon 25th, but HP in place Fri 28th albeit with more of a NE-ly for the S.

GFS seems to be backtracking, delaying HP arrival*. If one can forecast by backtracking charts, then fine, settled weather probably won't arrive. 


*btw, I'm using https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/panels.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&lid=OP.

I dont think there is a delay most models and their ensembles bring the high pressure in about the 25th/26th.

Here's the GEFS mean at 192h.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=192&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

ECM ensemble mean at 192h

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=192&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

HP starting to take residence over the UK , should pick the temps up 

only a matter of time before it slips into a favourable position ready for flaming June

16-dayer copied from yesterday - it hasn't really changed though any warm-up has if anything slowed down shows the Atlantic trying to push some warmth towards the UK in week 2 but at that stage only as far as France - but the cold 'bulge' has at least moved off to the east affecting Baltic state, Belarus and even down as far as Turkey. Rain in week 1 generally in Britain and across to N Europe, then drier here week 2 while new band sets up across Biscay to Alps.

Jetstream stll running over France until Thu 27th after which it progressively breaks up and is irtually absent from the NE Atlantic including the UK from Sun 30th 

GFS - deep LP running across UK this Friday, with a weak hang-back 1000mb Scotland Mon 24th. HP then builds in from the SW to NW Scotland by Thu 27th but leaving S England under NE-lies. These promote a shallow LP over the Channel Mon 31st while the HP becomes less well defined and by Thu 3rd LP near Iceland promotes a generally W-ly pattern over the UK

GEFS - mostly cool  to Sat 29th and then considerable temp variation either side of the norm. Continuing showery but shower activity slowly declining in the S while in the N showers are least in evidence around the 29th. 

ECM similar to GFS though while slower to develop HP has it stronger by Sat 29th (still focused on the NW, though)

Indeed, it is starting to look like a repeat of the stunted Spring of 2013 where I kept having north easterlies - the only thing I've not had too much in the way of so far this year is sea fog.

GFS OP on the lower side of the ENS

Probably a fair shout, although I think it will be a massive improvement on what we have now for most, away from exposed North Sea coasts. Areas on the south coast in the lee of high ground, could actually do pretty well.

that's because you need some warm air for that.