Alex Dolan on Look East Weather last night inferred that at the end of next week the risk of frosts maybe returning.

On the low side thankfully 

Not a great deal of support at least

I think we need to get away from the notion of seasons weatherwise. With Autumns being so mild and frost free these days it looks like we will have Summer and Winter only. Spring is either an early summer like last year with temps regularly in the twenties or like a late winter as this year.

I recall you writing off the Cricket World Cup in 2019 as going to be a disaster, matches are going to be rained off when in fact hardly any matches were affected by the weather and it was a brilliant tournament. 

Yes. I also recall that. He writes everything off, summers, winters, everything. It’s beyond parody! 

I think four out of the 48 games played in that tournament were rained off. 

Back to the models, GFS is again horrendous today, but glimmers of hope on both GEM and ECM today which show a good ridge after one more unsettled week.

It's another couple of straws to clutch at.

I think we might just be getting somewhere Moomin.  ECM finally gets rid of the Greenland high and bingo.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Jetstream continuing W-ly across France to Tue 26th (just a brief bump up into England Thu 20th) after which the flow starts to move north and after a loop has sorted itself out, is set to run from the NW across the UK Tue 1st. Nothing much in the way of settled weather for Britain.

16-dayer continues with unseasonably low temps for N Europe throughout, even the Med cool for week 1 but warming up week 2 esp Portugal (good for the holiday trade!), Focus for rain is from England across to the Alps week 1 and Iceland across to Scotland week 2.

GFS shows  more variation than yesterday; shallow LP to start with, brief burst of warmth and HP Thu 20th but immediately followed by quite a deep and stormy LP 980mb Ireland moving E-wards across the UK by Sat 22nd with follow-on N-lies to Tue 25th.  Another LP Wed 26th 980 mb S of Iceland moving to Scandinavia setting up a period of NW-lies with Britain on the edge between warm HP in Atlantic and cool LP over Scandi.

GEFS shows general agreement on cool temps (not as dramatic as yesterday) to Thu 27th after which mean is close to norm but a lot of variation after that (consistent with Britain on the edge as above; o[ & control going in different directions!) Rain in a showery pattern but total higher than previously forecast, decreasing after 27th

ECM rather different with LP Cornwall 995 mb  Thu 20th (no HP!) remaining cool with N-lies only to Mon 24th after which HP moves i from the SW, well established with warmth Wed 26th

They have to get rid of it as HP don't' belong to the north pole permanent as it belong toward the Azores and give us often HP times for the UK area in spring, summer and early Autumn months.  I am sure once 20C reached it will feel very warm as 30C after such a long time being cold.

I think there is a very good chance now of a significant improvement in about 8 to 10 days. ECM loses the GH as early as 144h which is a massive step forward. 

Indeed, ECM looks great this morning and as you say it’s not without support from the other models (GEM backs it up).

That signal has been there for a while now. GFS toys with it every so often, drops it, then picks it back up again. 

More runs needed! 

Yep, more runs needed, but there are very small acorns now...let's hope its a sign of a significant pattern shift. I really hope so. Fingers crossed.

I often agree with you! I just don’t agree with writing off whole seasons before they have started: nothing personal. In any case, worth watching GFS’s runs today, they often vary wildly from run to run at 8 day range so worth keeping an eye on whether any of them back the AH a la ECM and GEM…

Likely the model time settings is wrong as they think we are in Autumn to carry on this but I feel more confident other models pointing the right direction is correct due to the time of the year and expectance of summery charts must shown now.

"Britain to experience heatwave with 16 consecutive days of sunshine" says Daily Mirror. It's coming in June (apparently).

Well if the lrf's in The Mirror are as useless as those in the Express, then yes, without a doubt.