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Ally Pally Snowman
21 May 2021 13:06:39


 


If the models can't operate then the only one way for us is heading for settled with warm to hot summery weather as the unsettled weather cannot last forever now and we just 4 weeks left to the longest day now.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


It certainly wont last forever but it might drag on for a couple more weeks. ECM is better though.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
cultman1
21 May 2021 13:13:05
Surely it could last’ forever’ until the Greenland high permanently moves away thereby allowing the jet stream to move much further north? This would introduce warmer conditions from the South and allow The Azores High to take up some sort of residence in our vicinity rather than enduring the current autumn type weather we are experiencing from the Atlantic and continue to do so?
ballamar
21 May 2021 13:15:13
Gradually moving towards Summer starting properly in second week of June. Think the dross of a Spring will soon be forgotten
Bow Echo
21 May 2021 13:18:14

This reminds me of some of the late spring and early summer weather we used to get back in the 1960's, if anyone else remembers that dire decade for sun and warmth.

Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants


Saint Snow
21 May 2021 13:36:50

I don't get the despondency.


By next weekend, both ECM and GEM both show a decent and stable-looking block situated just north of the UK, created by the AH ridging northwards then building into a separate feature, bringing dry, sunny weather to most of the UK. It won't be especially warm, and the east coast and SE generally wouldn't be as good at first, but I like the set-up - and the high then sinks to sit over the UK.


GFS is a fly in the ointment. It starts to follow the same evolution, but then throws in a shortwave low late next week that sits over the UK and buggers it all up, before centring a huge low over Iceland where the other two had high pressure.


 


 


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Hungry Tiger
21 May 2021 13:37:52

Surely it could last’ forever’ until the Greenland high permanently moves away thereby allowing the jet stream to move much further north? This would introduce warmer conditions from the South and allow The Azores High to take up some sort of residence in our vicinity rather than enduring the current autumn type weather we are experiencing from the Atlantic and continue to do so?


Originally Posted by: cultman1 


Think of it like this - The year of 1879 delivered 12 consecutive months anything between 2C and 3C below average. The synoptic charts for that year must have looked quite remarkable with Greenland blocking present in most forms for the whole of that year. It's the only way you could have got 12 months in a row below normal temperatures and sigficantly below normal as well.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
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GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
21 May 2021 15:52:33


This reminds me of some of the late spring and early summer weather we used to get back in the 1960's, if anyone else remembers that dire decade for sun and warmth.


Originally Posted by: Bow Echo 


 


I don't remember the 60s but do remember most of the dross of the 70s (1975 and 76 excepted). You only have to look back at video footage of home Test matches in those two decades to see how cool and cloudy it often was. Players in double sweaters, spectators wearing coats!

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Ally Pally Snowman
21 May 2021 16:09:20


This reminds me of some of the late spring and early summer weather we used to get back in the 1960's, if anyone else remembers that dire decade for sun and warmth.


Originally Posted by: Bow Echo 


 


Let's hope we can get some 60s winters then.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
21 May 2021 16:29:36
12z GFS is again a bit "Meh" for the BH weekend. Certainly nothing resembling anything particularly settled or warm.
The whole of May has been a complete write off and there's little sign of June reversing that trend either.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
marcus72
21 May 2021 17:21:40

Heard the term "Maypril" on the radio this afternoon. Sums it up quite well really. Feels like pulling teeth trying to drag the GFS ENS mean back up to around average?!

Langstone, SE Hampshire
ozone_aurora
21 May 2021 17:30:48

Surely it could last’ forever’ until the Greenland high permanently moves away thereby allowing the jet stream to move much further north? This would introduce warmer conditions from the South and allow The Azores High to take up some sort of residence in our vicinity rather than enduring the current autumn type weather we are experiencing from the Atlantic and continue to do so?

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


What IS causing the Greenlandic High to persist?

Brian Gaze
21 May 2021 17:32:24

Growing expectation this will be the first UK spring on record when the highest temperature was recorded in March. IMO that alone would be enough to put it alongside the all time classics.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Weathermac
21 May 2021 18:01:14


Growing expectation this will be the first UK spring on record when the highest temperature was recorded in March. IMO that alone would be enough to put it alongside the all time classics.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Indeed Brian we recorded 23c here on 31st March the highest since has been 19c and I can’t see us reaching even 19c going by the latest offering from GFS.

moomin75
21 May 2021 18:54:41


 


 


Let's hope we can get some 60s winters then.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

ECM 12Z continues its theme of bringing summer to us next weekend and in fact becomes pretty hot.


It is being consistent, unlike the GFS. Big question, it it consistently right or wrong?

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
cultman1
21 May 2021 18:56:27



What IS causing the Greenlandic High to persist?


Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 

that is the million dollar question This lengthy unsettled and cool pattern is quite extraordinary. Over to the experts .All we hope is at the very least a return to some degree of normality as we enter into June

cultman1
21 May 2021 18:59:31


Growing expectation this will be the first UK spring on record when the highest temperature was recorded in March. IMO that alone would be enough to put it alongside the all time classics.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

completely agree. It has been an unprecedented long period of surpressed temperatures in the UK with no sign as far as I can see of a shift in pattern in the medium term .

Ally Pally Snowman
21 May 2021 19:01:01


ECM 12Z continues its theme of bringing summer to us next weekend and in fact becomes pretty hot.


It is being consistent, unlike the GFS. Big question, it it consistently right or wrong?


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Yes it's a lovely run. Not convinced though.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Polar Low
21 May 2021 19:03:35

Things usually balance out in the end let’s get this cool period out of the way in May , expect when things to turn from one extreme to another it seems typical of the uk climate.


Ps as per ecm extended 14 uppers on the south coast by 31st 


 


 




Growing expectation this will be the first UK spring on record when the highest temperature was recorded in March. IMO that alone would be enough to put it alongside the all time classics.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

White Meadows
21 May 2021 21:28:45
Continued below average temps really quite astounding:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif 

Something has/ needs to reset the pattern over Greenland soon or we’re in for a dull and cool June, especially in the south & east.
sunny coast
21 May 2021 21:34:47


 


 


I don't remember the 60s but do remember most of the dross of the 70s (1975 and 76 excepted). You only have to look back at video footage of home Test matches in those two decades to see how cool and cloudy it often was. Players in double sweaters, spectators wearing coats!


Originally Posted by: GezM 

    absolutely  the 60s my childhood decade and not one summer you would call good by today's standards  . A few hot days here and there was all that decade managed  some wet summers some cool but dry . Early 70s similar and after 76 back to wet ! 

UncleAlbert
22 May 2021 00:05:09
64, 67 and 69 probably the best of a poor bunch in Southern UK. 68 had a few short hot spells in a thundery summer.
moomin75
22 May 2021 05:47:50
Not at all good from GFS, GEM and UKMO this morning. The lengthy cold and unsettled spell looks like dragging on and on.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 May 2021 06:13:25


Growing expectation this will be the first UK spring on record when the highest temperature was recorded in March. IMO that alone would be enough to put it alongside the all time classics.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

  For here, the most notable aspects of this Spring were the clear skies, the number of frosts and the lack of rain in April.  We had a frost almost every night, although daytime temps weren’t particularly low.  

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Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
22 May 2021 06:19:52

Not at all good from GFS, GEM and UKMO this morning. The lengthy cold and unsettled spell looks like dragging on and on.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I fear you are correct. Whatever happened to those lovely GFS chart we had? Unfortunately they never came closer than a week away which as we all know isn't quite close enough to have any real confidence.


That said, a few days ago the BBC forecasts were quite bullish about a big improvement for next week. That's all gone now.

Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
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moomin75
22 May 2021 06:41:21


 


I fear you are correct. Whatever happened to those lovely GFS chart we had? Unfortunately they never came closer than a week away which as we all know isn't quite close enough to have any real confidence.


That said, a few days ago the BBC forecasts were quite bullish about a big improvement for next week. That's all gone now.


Originally Posted by: Col 

However, ECMWF stays with its consistent theme of higher pressure. This has been a regular feature over the last couple of days and is coming into the reliable time frame. Lots still to play for.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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