Latest BBC week ahead shows a bit warmer and mostly dry for next weekend.

Fascinating model watching at the moment.  Theres some very good weather to be had soon but it could still go Pete Tong. 

Are you only looking at the OPS runs Moomin? It just appears that you are seeing far greater difference between runs than I can see when I look at the ENS charts which are not really deviating much at all. 

ECM has been rock solid for days now. GFS ENS haven't been as bad as the OPS I must admit.

I don't think the agricultural sector will be saying that or indeed anyone growing a crop especially if it has been a mediocre summer.

The BH weekend still looking a massive improvement on the current synoptics. Had my first Tstorm a few days ago which was a pleasant surprise.

Unfortunately no sign of getting into the mid 20s, the solid HP block extending from the Azores that was modelled a few days ago now looks a little more slack:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

I think we're looking pretty much average here with high-teens and some coolish nights.

T240 still teases with something a little beefier :

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

with some strong WAA up the west side which could see favoured West Country spots like Gloucs/Herefordshire getting to the high 20s. One to watch.

High 20s? I'd be happy with a max temp that has a two in it that isn't '12' :)

Good output this morning.  GFS Ops continue to swing wildly but at least its warm this morning.  ECM more consistent and warm and settled again.  GEM warm but more unsettled and UKMO looks good at 144h.

GFS Op has mid-day temps 25C for the S and 20C for the north on Thu 3rd - but blink and you've missed it, back down to 15C/10C S/N by Mon 7th - and it's only one run out on its own!

GFS Op synoptics - LP sitting over UK Mon 24th easing away E-wards and filling with HP nosing in from the SW Sat 29th and establishing over S England 1035mb Tue 1st. That HP has a battle with LP out to the west which brings up the warm S-lies above, but in the end loses with the LP settling over N Scotland 995 mb Mon 7th and dragging in N/NE-lies behind it.

GEFS - cool at first, temps recovering to norm Fri 28th, rain and showers present until then and after that only intermittent, perhaps rather more in the N. Temp runs after 28th averaging either side of norm with the Op noted above as an extreme warm outlier in the S (and almost as much of a cold outlier at end of run)

ECM - gives more prominence to the HP from the SW Sat 29th and shows it as a large anticyclone across to Norway Mon 31st. The HP then weakens as LP pushes in from the S (1010 mb Biscay Wed 2nd) which matches yesterday's ECM but disagrees with GFS Op

As long we see temperatures to rise to low 20's so I can finally turn off the heating for good until October.  Been long time using the heating except few days breaks in end of March warm spell.   Last year I set the thermostat at 21 or 22 now this time 20 so not to burn more gas due to unwelcome long cold weather..

Not sure we're quite there yet output is still quite volatile. ECM is the most consistent though and the chances of the cold finally retreating in about 5 days does look very good now.

Lovely warm ECM mean this morning.  Mid 20s a real possibility for the very end of May start of June. 

Just looking at both the GFS and ECM mean patterns out to day 10 and both look very similar, and similar in that the pattern looks very unconvincing:

A

It is like the general pattern wants so hard to do something, but can't decide exactly what. 

Encouraging models this afternoon with summer arriving near enough bang on cue. Nothing especially hot, but low to mid-20sC under high pressure would feel very warm after the prolonged cool spell we've been used to. It's nice that it will coincide with my week off work too!

The ECM even has the block shifting east, bringing a summer easterly, which is lovely around here. The GFS however retreats it west, bringing cooler NW'ly winds back.

Settled from GFS at last 

On the high side though it has to be said 

Pretty clear consensus now of a welcome change in weather pattern towards the weekend, just waiting for the latter frames of the ECM.

Dry and settled. Warmer.

East coast though - this looks potentially like an easterly with the core of the high developing across Scandinavia - watch out for low cloud and haar.