Thank God for that.

True as I can put up with 'warm' rain too. It's the incessant low maximums and gales I find hard to accept. As improbable as it seems I believe some places on the South Coast have yet to reach the magic 21C this year. Places like Portland Island for example perhaps.

BBC going for a classic NW/SE split into next week – with by far the best of the weather down south.

We'll see. 

With respect, I think that is a very big 'if', IMO Kieren.

Thankfully, it all starts out past day eight at the moment, so not in reliable time frame, and I expect the latter stages to be a wet outlier.

Yes, FI charts. 

Of course some members will focus on them, rather than the lovely weather in the reliable. 

Little in the way of prolonged settled weather in this morning's output.

Perhaps a week of better weather, but all a bit unstable, with too much in the way of Atlantic lows in the wrong position to our NW, waiting to collapse the block.

Far rather have the block just to the north of the UK, with lows deflected to our south.

Likely evolution is a NW/SE split I think, but hopefully the AH develops east more strongly and gives a more settled picture nationwide. As the old adage goes: Get the high in first, before worrying about what’s next!

Can I just say - I love how passive aggressive this thread has become.

I know it is the same every year to an extent, but it’s become a lovely little ritual to read the posts, quietly chuckle to myself as I watch the subtle and defensive digs come out.

Most entertaining. 😂😂😂 

A nice light hearted diversion from the pandemic anyway. 👍

A few days ago the GFS Op run was frequently warmer than the ENS mean for the period May 29 to June 3. Now the mean has risen up to about the same value for that time period. Next we have started to see the Op run below the mean for the period after June 3. 

Question - does anybody know if the Op run tends to be a trendsetter that brings the mean closer to it, or does it tend to meander randomly up and down the ensembles? 

If the answer is the former, then perhaps we do need to worry about June 3 onwards!

6z at the bottom end of the pack

Look like decent temps of low to mid 20's will be very welcome.  Once that arrive time to look for heatwave chasing.

Indeed, get the high in first and think about developments later (personally I would rather avoid heatwaves although conscious that other members think differently!) 

Interesting. 

There is a tendency for the models to throw out wild outliers in FI in pattern-change scenarios – not say this particular Op should be totally discounted but the phenomenon is something I have noted over the years. 

But gfs says NO and a smashing run best so far let’s hope it’s not top end

Mean at 120 no break down in sight

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=31&ech=120&mode=0&carte=0

The more experienced members would probably say a blended solution but I’d like gfs but can’t rule out ukmo it’s been right many times before.

ps 

ive had some rotten BH weekends feed up over the years of bond moves let’s hope for a good summer we all deserve it 

The mean doesn't tell everything of course, but I wouldn't be backing a washout with this.

It doesn’t seem any steadier at that range to me? I think I will embrace and enjoy the ether more settled conditions before worrying about what may come after.