The ECM looks much more promising.

GEFS looks pretty solid to me.

The two-week forecast http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 supports Moomin with cool air invading NW Europe again (esp week 2), and a fair amount of rain around, first to the SW and then to the SE. But not all is lost - this is quite a switch from yesterday and seems to be mainly derived from the op rather than the ensembles, so confidence must be low; and the local MetO st least is showing fine and pleasant weather, not too hot, through the next week.

GFS - current HP is off to Norway by Thu 3rd leaving UK in a trough which has origins both over continent and Atlantic, but pressure recovers and remain relatively high to Fri 11th albeit with shallow LPs drifting up from the S. For a couple of days the Atlantic dominates with LP off W Ireland before  Azores High returns in force for Wed 16th.

GEFS - temps high for Wed 2nd, down to nom for Fri 4th, then mean a couple of degrees above norm through to Wed 16th though op and control are outliers on the low side towards the end. Bits and pieces of rain now and then from Fri 4th onwards, the bigger spikes showing up in both extreme SW and extreme SE.

ECM - similar to GFS but pressure more even in week beginning 6th with little sign of LPs drifting N from Europe

What's going on here!  (Clue + 168 hours)

I was looking at some photographs taken Spring Bank Holiday 1996, and was surprised to see  that the trees were only in the first stages of leaf. Trees here have been similar this year. Agree 1996 turned out to be an OK summer, but suffered in comparison to 1994 and 1995. 

Warm and settled sums up the ECM Op and mean this evening and indeed most of the other models as well.

I'd say that was mostly accurate albeit missing out the potentially showery stuff mid-week and the cool down with some rain for the NW the charts suggest for the end of the working week too.

It's definitely not a bad ECM run if mostly settled and warm (but not oppressively so) is your thing

Very happy with the output this morning on the first day of summer. 

Predominantly high pressure with mainly settled weather for the foreseeable. 

Happy to be proven wrong, and after a wonderful day yesterday, I am very happy to see the output today.

Jetstream is forecast to be largely absent from the area around Britain until the end of next week; tenative re-emergence Thu 10th, more definite fro Sun 13th onwards running from the W or NW close to or over N Scotland

Below average temps and heaviest rain moving off to Ukraine and Romania over the next couple of weeks; pleasant temps and mainly dry for UK but no great heat wave.  http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 

GFS - starts out with Britain in a shallow trough between HP to SW & NE to Sat 5th then basically under the influence of the Azores High to Thu 17th, with LP nibbling at the edges (Atlantic to NW Tue 8th with SW-lies, Scandi Sun 12th with N-lies both just offshore)

GEFS - most runs quite closely clustered around the mean which after a couple of days of definite warmth settles down to a  degree or two above seasonal norm (variation from mean more pronounced as you go further N). Small amounts of showery rain throughout, could happen anywhere at any time.

ECM - like GFS to Thu 10th then develops a stronger ridge from the Atlantic to the SW extending into Sweden and LP more generally from Spain to Poland

I wonder if we could eek out a 29C tomorrow? 30C would be asking too much I think.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=03&charthour=36&chartname=max_temp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20C

Even if this reached 30C we deserved it after a very bad cold Spring.

Looks pretty good to me too, Joe.

We have seen far worse charts at the start of the summer in the past, for sure.

Unless there is a major change for the worse in the model output anytime in the near future, I think you can keep your ark safely tucked away in a cupboard, Kieren.

“The nicest thing about the rain is that it always stops. Eventually.”

ECM 12z serves up a peach of a summer run. 

Yes I think 29c looks on shown at 1300 A 1400

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=12&charthour=26&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20temp%20C

Same here, Caz!

Big heat building in Spain  later on ecm 24/ 25 uppers across a vast area.