wxmaps continue to show the Atlantic sweeping in, warm in the SE (to start with, but even that going off in week 2)cool in the NW; and rain in the NW gradually spreading to all parts.
GFS - the SW-NE band of HP persists for this week, strongest on Sat 12th, before pressure drops noticeably Tue 15th with new LP over Biscay joining forces with the Atlantic and eventually forming a trough of LP aligned N-S over central UK Thu 17th which weakens but still leaves UK in relatively low pressure between two blocks of HP, in the Baltic and in mid-Atlantic; this situation persists until end of run Wed 23rd
GEFS - warmth increasing steadily until Tue 15th (to 5C above norm) when there is a breakdown back to norm (at different rates in different runs) with rain spikes appearing for the S. In the N a less regular increase and breakdown a day or two earlier with a definite focus on rain for Thu 17th. Not all is lost, however - there are a significant number of warm outliers in the jumble after the 17th.
ECM - the LP in Biscay doesn't link up to the Atlantic on Tue 15th, and although the Atlantic spins off a low across N Scotland, the SW-NE ride of HP is back quickly though positionaed somewhat further to the S than previously
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl