31c given by Friday Arpege

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=12&charthour=99&chartname=uk2mtmpsohd&chartregion=uk-s&charttag=2m%20temp%20C

ECM really is a hot run shows a week of 30c + for the south and EA. 

Jires run southern and s/e districts 

ECM bringing in 17C 850s. Nothing special in the current era. 

wxmaps has relented somewhat for this week, showing pleasant warmth over England (but not NW Scotland) before week 2 brings in a surge of  cool Atlantic air all across W Europe; a clear boundary between warm and cold running from N France to S Poland to N Ukraine. After a dry start, week 2 brings in significant rain for most areas north of the above line.

Jet - after a bit of meandering N of the UK, the jet is present and fairly strong for a summer season across and around all the UK from Tue 15th

GFS -  HP from the SW broadly across the UK to Tue 15th with the SW feed bringing in some humid air at first - the heat low over Spain mentioned above threatens on Sun 13th but doesn't make it N-wards. Then a sequence of LP tracking acorss the UK 990 mb N Scotland Wed 16th, 995 mb Hebrides Sun 20th, 995 mb N England Tue 22nd, all a downgrade from yesterday

GEFS - maximum warmth reached around Tue 15th and quite a sharp fall to mean a little below seasonal norm a couple of days later, and staying there (op & control notably cold around Fri 18th). Although there's the usual mix of temp runs as time goes on, there are fewer warm outliers than yesterday.  Rain starts after Thu 17th (15th in Scotland)and includes occasional big totals.

ECM - allows the heat low to get a little closer before the Atlantic blasts in with 980mb off W Ireland Wed 16th. That LP centre moves N-wards rather than E-wards as in GFS, but extends a long trough down to Biscay.

UM looks ok. I'd not be surprised if we get a second heat bust at least for a time next week.

ECM Op and Mean looks solidly very warm for 10 days. 850s above 10c all the way. GFS on the other hand much more extreme and wants to take us back to the dark days of May.

Don't like the looks of GFS at all this morning. A throwback to May for sure. Let's hope it's an outlier.

I'm never convinced by GFS Ops it so often throws out extreme scenarios. Despite recent upgrades it's still not as consistent as the ECM. 

That's 40C and plus with the likes of that.

Looks a right mixed bag after the 15th , make the most of the next 7 days 

ECM produces a very chilly  northerly late on. It does sadly look like we might be back to poor weather in about 8 days. 

Yes ECM now following what the much maligned GFS has been showing for days. Could even see a return of grass frosts if that ECM run verified.

These look like London temps - BBC WfTWa being less upbeat about the north from Tuesday.

Also, just before he got cut off in favour of some puerile trailer, drawing attention to two rival scenarios, one in which the incoming LP steams across Scotland,cold and wet for all; the other in which it heads N to Iceland, warm weather continuing. The map also showed pressure dropping further S in the Atlantic around Tuesday, a feature which was on ECM this morning.

the heat will fade next week to (a very pleasant) average for the South. Cooler nights, thankfully, and daytime temps more akin to what is still late Spring in astronomical terms. 

A decent outlook. 

WxMaps this week warm/hot and dry for SE, cooler and a bit damp NW; the cold noted across N Europe yesterday has retreated W-wards so UK is generally cool and damp week 2. Jet toys with N Scotland this week but from Thu 17th moves S to form a loop around England.

GFS Op shows Azores HP dominating until Tue 15th with warm Sw source of air, but LP moves in to Hebrides Thu 17th nd sticks around for a week leaving UK in a cold pool of LP with HP on all sides. Some suggestion that the Azores High will re-assert itself in final frame Fri 18th

GEFS Warm esp in SE and dry exc NW to Tue 15th, drops off with mean below norm Thu 17th onwards (op & control both 3-4C below for several days) and rain around from same date. Some recovery of temp esp in N at end of period

ECM begins to squeeze out the cold pool much earlier and Uk pressure much higher by Sat 19th (though it does have another LP waiting on the Atlantic at that time unlike GFS0

The pattern beyond next midweek looks zonal with an element of NW/SE split and HP ridging. Cooler but not especially wet so adequate in my view