Hints of some warmer stuff after the cooler blip.

That's a good sign.

Looks like some posts have gone missing or been deleted from this morning?

Yes not sure why but every post on all threads got deleted earlier.  Hopefully we can get them back at some point. 

There is a separate thread about that in the Forum Arms section. Today's CC thread has also completely gone and I had posted a couple of times on there today.

 Yes looks wet.

Let's hope that this doesn't end up being it for our summer, especially as Brian has hinted in many of his posts that the temperature might not get above 30°C anywhere in the UK during the rest of this summer after Monday.

Spot the heat low  30c possible from quite a few members on 12z

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=120

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/temperatures-2m/120h.htm

Btw

OS went to Bishops today had a eat in Greek cafe near pub half way down hill very nice indeed👍

It might be broken again in less than 120 hours 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0

I think that's a very unlikely scenario. Sorry if I didn't make it clear here or on Twitter. 

Good grief look at ecm Brian very warm or hot for most of 12z remove bet immediately

30c ecm given for Wednesday 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0

yep 30c now at risk Sunday -Wednesday 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0

Ecm extending summer conditions threat of severe T,s mid week

no 7 gfs explains what can happen with heat Lows approx 23 uppers into southern England amazing stuff

>40c mid France at that time

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=7&ech=228&mode=1&carte=0

Yesterday's review was one of the posts that disappeared under the glitch that took a number of posts down, ad by the time I noticed, it was a bit late to re-write it. But it only showed similar themes to the previous couple of days, with a break in the fine weather in the middle of next week, ECM with a weak trough over the UK and LP centres to the N of Scotland, and GFS unable to decide between following ECM or setting up a well-defined cold pool directly over the UK.

On to today's charts, then:

The jetstream stays over N Scotland until about Wed 16th when a loop develops upstream and slides into position over the UK, affecting the S strongly by  Sat 19th, fading a bit before being replaced by a similar loop in the following week. Relief for most comes by Sat 26th when the jet removes to NW Scotland again.

WX maps summary taking too long to respond and being timed out ATM.

GFS Op - Azores High giving fine warm weather to start with but LP appears S of Iceland 985mb Wed 16th drifting E-wards with shallow trough extending S well S-wards. After a brief break, new LP Sun 20th does an almost exact repeat, clearing by Thu 24th as the Azores High re-asserts itself, particularly affecting the SE with SW-lies on its northern edge for Scotland

GEFS - warm/hot in SE to Wed 17th, then a less clear-cut drop in temp than previously forecast, but down to about around  seasonal norm Wed 23rd and some indication of recovery thereafter Rain definietly Thu 18th; then somewhat drier but more showing up in some runs around Sat 26th (contrary to op above which is one f the dry runs). In the N more of an oscillation between warm (14th, 17th, 21st, 26th)  and norm between these dates, and rain in small amounts more frequent after 17th.

ECM - similar to GFS but the second LP on the 20th tracks further N and is followed by a nondescript W-ly, the Azores High not showing a strong presence and an interesting heat low over Spain appearing on Tue 22nd

Thanks Dew, WX working ok I looked earlier but members don’t put pictures of charts here they don’t like it.

I left it on ecm 144 quite clear of T action at that time

https://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=uk&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=00&step=144&plottype=10&lat=59.673&lon=2.986&skewtstep=0

Wx maps suggesting a traditional British summer, warm in the SE, cool in the NW, rain from time to time (esp in NW later), rather at odds with the latest GFS

GFS - HP lasting until Wed 16th then a breakdown more thundery from the S than the previously predicted cool from the NW, Various shallow LP centres then hang around the SE for a week until Azores HP pushes across the S Thu 24th displaced in turn by Atlantic LP 995mb SW Scotland Sun 27th moving N but trailing a trough behind it. Quite a change from yesterday 

GEFS - in the S, a dip before the warmest day Thu 17th (peak heat keeps getting moved back). Then a dip to norm for most runs to end of forecast period but one or two  insane hot outliers (some 15C above norm around Tue 22nd). Thundery rain shows up well 17th - 21st, then declines to mostly dry. In Scotland, less agreement between runs but nearly all not far from the norm in temps; the wet period extends for longer before declining around Fri 25th

ECM - brings LP in from the Atlantic Sun 20th  in place of the home-grown shallow LPs of GFS, but nevertheless shows the UK under the influence of LP 995mb N Sea TUe 22nd, and cooler than GFS

BBC this morning talking about 'nasty' storms crossing the Channel to central S England on Wed night

Yep not so good this morning but it can be expected better towards the s/e as often the case.

You can see how nasty those storms could be on Wednesday if you run the slider to 21.00 on Wednesday.

https://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=uk&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=00&step=093&plottype=10&lat=59.673&lon=2.986&skewtstep=0

are ‘nasty storms’ the new ‘wintry hazards’ ?

Typical … next Sunday I’m doing a 67 miles cycle sportive over Dartmoor, I was hoping for fine weather. Today is already very warm with not a cloud in the sky 🙄