If its even remotely similar, I will eat my hat!

Expect it to back off to the cooler and unsettled nightmare tomorrow morning.

Stick to the general theme of the ensemble pack and you can't go far wrong.

To be fair to AP he qualified his post and it is model output.

Outlook looks average to warm after the heat of this week.

The interesting part will be the rainfall, especially the wide variations available in thundery set ups. 

I fear the rain will make the headlines big time later this week.

I knew you would say that 

They don't call me Gloomin for nothing you know 🤣🤣

Keep up the good work!

GFS - current HP breaking down on Wed 16th ( a half-day earlier than MetO?) with Atlantic LP moving towards Scotland and Spanish LP towards S England. After a bit of sorting out, a local (thundery?) Lp is over Kent Mon 21st and then a more persistent LP standing off to the SW for the following week allowing a ridge of HP across Scotland and SE/E-lies for S England, before it moves NE across England Mon 28th, only to be replaced by another LP to the SW Wed 30th

GEFS - for the S, mean temp down to norm by Fri 18th and lots of intense rainfall events either side of that. Temps after that with a very wide spread, the mean being 'close to the norm' disguises some quite extreme runs but the main rainfall event is over by Wed 23rd. For Scotland, the temp dips briefly below norm and the 'close to norm' period after that has different runs more tightly grouped than in the S. Less rain, but more persistent with peak around Tue 22nd

ECM - differs from GFS as early as Fri 18th when HP builds back more rapidly but briefly, followed by a narrow trough W of Ireland moving E across UK. This model converges with GFS again Thu 24th when there is a ridge of HP across Scotland and a thundery-looking low in the Channel.

Messiest ensembles I can remember for a long time. I mean look at that:

All over the place.

Indeed the GEM ensembles are even more extreme.  Significant heat cant be ruled out yet for the end of June. 

Our garden has only just recovered from the washout May. We could without another deluge. I fear the worst though, looks very disturbed and dare I say very 2007-esque.

First time I've seen these. Well done Brian for this information. TWO charts.

Gavin Partridge doing the commentary I think.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaqSwUmBQVw

Not looking good. The only solace at the moment is that there's still huge scatter between the models. Look for example at UKMO vs GFS vs GEM for 144hrs, which really isn't far away.

UKMO has 22c 850s at 156h. Looks very thundery but mid 30s if there was some sunshine. 

That 2nd day running now showing extreme heat and not to dismiss them and with serious heat in nearby continent should enter here without a problem.  Isn't UKMO are the one always come out correct at any weather set-up ?  Like when other charts snow and deep cold showing while UKMO refused and then they won when other models back down and follow it?  

Yep pretty crazy to produce two such extreme runs. Certainly not to be dismissed 

Both GEM and GFS have high pressure pushing in strongly just a couple of days later though. 

No sign of 100f this weekend on the GFS 12z, in fact it looks closer to 50f.

And I can't see any sign of things settling down any time soon once it breaks.

Second  half of June is going to be pretty awful.

BBC monthly also says a cool and wet end of June and a cool and wet July.

We could have just had our summer folks.

Lol.

I don't think the general outlook is looking too bad though just not seeing much sign of anything really hot in the second half of June. In fact there's probably a good chance that we might have had the warmest 2 weeks of the Summer now in terms of average temperatures. Of course there should still be the odd really hot day at least in July/ August.

My hunch is there is a good chance of a significant heatwave at some point this summer. As the heat in Europe looks intense already. 

Has the heat really been that intense in Europe so far though? My perception is that it has been a fairly normal Summer so far in Spain and France and nothing exceptional?

Last couple of weeks it has and it looks set to continue.