Careful what you say, the deniers will attack you if you say it as it is!

I am not getting involved further after this, as it is not my style to argue on these boards, however you said:

"Cool and unsettled is definitely the form horse for the next couple of weeks at least."

You have already glossed over my post stating the cooler and unsettled conditions this weekend, a few days at most rather than "at least two weeks".

Pressure rises, especially for southern and eastern areas further into next week with the latter part of June and beyond looking drier and warmer. It is subject to change of course - a line I'd advise you to use in your own doom and gloom posts rather than 'definitely'. I appreciate you have your niche on here, but be prepared to be challenged if your prediction of weeks and weeks of rain and suppressed temperatures looks like falling flat 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

I've always liked Moomin's style of post, it for me adds to the quirkiness of the forum. 

As for the rest of June the next 4 or 5 days do look potentially very very wet especially for the SE. But after that late June is still up for grabs models dont have a clear signal yet. Last night's ECM had a decent Azores high pushing in over the UK.  This mornings GFS has a mini plume in 10 days and GEM is more unsettled. 

True, with all respect as I know it is fun to comment on extreme solutions, but it is certainly a far cry from the 23c t850s the outlier UK Met model was showing a few days ago!

Looks a fairly simple picture emerging now. Tonight, Friday and Sunday look to bring a lot of rain to central and eastern England due to the heat pulsing up from the continent. After that it looks far more normal (with usual scatter). London ensembles look fairly dry by then and temps reasonable, especially as the Azores HP tries to ridge towards the south as on the ECM op 

That's my general reading. We need some rain here, for sure. My lawn is suffering. Quite looking forward to some thundery downpours!

Mine's still looking verdantly pristine.

It's an incredibly hot run for France.  The ease in which 20c - 25c 850s build in France these days is definitely something that has changed in the last 5 to 10 years or so.

Got a notification earlier from a model website I am subscribed to to that ECM was having issues regarding its output this morning. Not sure if that has been rectified yet. 

France does appear to have seen the biggest impact in mainland Europe from the recent change to summer weather patterns. I'm sure that the difference between average summer temperatures in southern England and northern France must have increased quite dramatically in recent years. If my memory serves me right, the 1961-90 difference between London and Paris in July was 3F (1.6C). Seems to be greater now.

As a heat lover I am often jealous of the French summer weather but there are times when even I'd be saying 'No thanks!'.

Normally Paris and London is 3C difference from the old average of 22C to 25C there now 24C but there nearly 30C so a jump up from before  otherwise London would be 26C average in summer.  UK can get those very high temps even with sea around it if set-up are good place and allow to happen without interference from the horrible Atlantic.   I often see high temps in north France 33-34C charts often end up the same or nearly the same in places of SE England but when they go to the high 38's to 40C UK miss out often.

I think you could also say the difference between Southern England and NW Britain has also increased.  Stands to reason because the intense heat over the continent is clearly much warmer these days, but rarely makes it that far NW, and the Atlantic has only warmed slightly (and at times has had a cold pool).

 That Astroturf wont last forever you know..

Like a broken record!

Running through the ECM and GFS the upcoming weather looks like a big standard spell of weather that we would get in June . Not great but not terrible either.
What is unusual is how warm and dry the month has been so far, average max of 22c here which is unheard of for June , so the upcoming spell will prvide some balance, the month will still end up being warmer than average, probably sunnier and I would guess on the dryer side of average .

Agree with this, Tim.

While this June hasn't been the greatest one by any means, one does not have to go back a great many years to find Junes which were a great deal worse than this one. Also, for me there is so much volatility in the models just now that it is hard to be sure whether we are likely to get a prolonged unsettled spell or a relatively brief one. I think anyone who thinks a long unsettled spell is a nailed-on certainty may be counting their chickens before they have hatched.

Jet stream currently looping round the UK, dissipating by Monday but a new loop moving in from the Atlantic Fri 25th and neatly enclosing the UK Mon 28th before dissipating again. Suggestion of a third episode starting Sat 3rd.

FAX develops a local depression 1006 mb central Channel tomorrow (Fri) moving to NSea by Sat and a more extensive trough for the whole length of the Channel Sun drifting N-wards, not showing well on smaller scale Atlantic charts

GFS has stretched shallow trough Spain to Norway Fri , then places Sunday's LP as a closed feature off SW Ireland filling and moving across the UK E-wards allowing HP to approach from the SW briefly before a new trough comes in from the N Fri 25th and after taking a look at England wanders off and hangs around Rockall for the following week. Could be quite nice for SE England but rather dismal for NW Scotland by then.

GEFS temps descending to cooler than norm Wed 23rd and after brief let-up again around Wed 30th (only by a majority verdict in the second case - there are quite a few very warm outliers then). A hint of something much warmer Sat 3rd . Episodes of heavy rain until Wed 23rd, earlier in this period in S, later on in N, smaller amounts from time to time after that.

ECM Resembles GFS until end of run Sat 26th when warmer air and HP spreads across Scotland and LP drifts off to the SW, not NW

Looking at the ECM ensembles it has the warmth returning relatively quickly but it does look unsettled for the next week or so. Here's the day 10 mean very warm but perhaps unsettled.  Europe looking hot.

 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=240&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Not sure that looks 'very warm' with uppers in the 5-8c range, more like average? though it does look better than the GFS outlook at least.