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Dingle Rob
22 June 2021 22:04:42

The July 1968 United Kingdom thunderstorms were the most severe dust fall thunderstorms in the British Isles for over 200 years.[1] A layer of mineral dust blowing north from the Sahara met cold, wet air over the British Isles, resulting in thick, dense clouds and severe thunderstorms across most of England and Wales. These clouds completely blotted out the light in some areas and the rain and hail resulted in property damage and flooding, and at least

The storms resulted in at least four fatalities. Three people were struck by lightning – a 72-year-old woman in Northallerton, a 14-year-old girl in Oldham, and an unnamed woman in Hampsthwaite – while an 80-year-old man drowned in flooding in Welshpool.[2][3][9] Hail broke windows and dented cars across a wide swathe of the country, and damage was reported at both Cardiff Airport and RAF Chivenor. At Yeadon, West Yorkshire, the accumulated hail piled 450 millimetres (18 in) deep, and in parts of Yorkshire the ice was so severe that roads had to be cleared with bulldozers.[5]

Bradford saw severe flooding on 2 July, with many streets in the centre left underwater, as did the Isle of Man.[10][11] The Met Office noted that many rivers across the West Country and the Midlands burst their banks, and said that every town and village in Devon was flooded, with damage to property and crops assessed as "a major disaster".[12] The summer of 1968 would prove to be one of the worst ever recorded for flooding in the UK, with further storms causing the Chew Stoke flood of 1968 just a week later and the Great Flood of 1968 that September, and would not be equalled until the 2007 floods.[13]

In the wake of the storm, a number of normally rare African and Southern European insects were reported across England, having been blown across with the Saharan dust

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

Remember the Chew Stoke Flood well 10/11 July. Something like 7 inches of rain fell in a few hours with a lot more higher up on the Mendips. Living in Bristol, it was wellies on to wade through floods to get to school the following day. Never seen anything like it since. 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2021 22:28:43

18z GFS is another cold soaker for the Southern half of the country, but looks like the Midlands gets it worst from Friday to Tuesday - maxima of 13, 17, 15, 13, 17 (though by Tues it’s down to 15 in London too). Really quite remarkable daytime temperatures if they actually happened. 56mm accumulated rainfall by then.

Meanwhile Glasgow: 14, 20, 20, 22, 23 on the same days. 1mm accumulated rain.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
APerez
23 June 2021 05:29:27


Northern blocking, slow moving troughs over the channel delivering copious precipitation… what if it were January?


Originally Posted by: TimS 


Overnight runs a big step in the right direction with the GFS and UKMO more in line with the largely steady ECM.


Alex.
Welwyn, Herts.
sunny coast
23 June 2021 05:34:55


Remember the Chew Stoke Flood well 10/11 July. Something like 7 inches of rain fell in a few hours with a lot more higher up on the Mendips. Living in Bristol, it was wellies on to wade through floods to get to school the following day. Never seen anything like it since. 


Originally Posted by: Dingle Rob 


 


And then in September 68 it was the turn of the South East with a weekend producing  6 to 8 inches of rain in the worst affected areas of west Kent and south London Surrey and Essex . Guildford and Tonbridge badly flooded.  

Tim A
23 June 2021 05:59:43
Planning a number of outdoor events this weekend so been keeping a keen eye on the forecast.
At worst I think there will be a few showers around this weekend here but generally should be ok.

GFS has consistently been the worst. It seems to like to inflate things from time to time. Last night it showed 55mm accumulated rain for here by the end of Sunday, this morning it shows 5mm, I would guess it may be even less than that.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2021 07:26:06

FAX not nice for the next few days, detail of LP currently over Hebrides to Orkney by Fri then running SW across central England to Cornwall by Sun deepening and dragging N-lies behind it.


GFS shows this feature filling only slowly with HP building in from the W only slowly to cover UK by Fri 2nd and then after a period of W-lies, Hp centred over UK Tue 6thand maintaining a strong ridge thereafter


GEFS for the S cool at first and wet esp around Sun 27th, gradually warming to above norm by Tue 6th and becoming drier. In the N the rain arrives earlier but the return of the warmth is also quicker, above norm from Mon 28th


eCM - similar to Tue 29th though that nuisance LP is less well defined, then from Thu 1st HP develops over Scandi, not the Atlantic, and even allows LP to drift in from the W, quite contrary to GFS


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2021 09:18:56


 And then in September 68 it was the turn of the South East with a weekend producing  6 to 8 inches of rain in the worst affected areas of west Kent and south London Surrey and Essex . Guildford and Tonbridge badly flooded.  


Originally Posted by: sunny coast 


Yes, that included the Molesey floods. I moved to East Molesey at the age of 2 and lived there for about 20 years so know the town very well. It's at the confluence of the rivers Ember, Mole and Thames, so is very low lying and susceptible to floods. Or it was until the flood alleviation scheme in the early 1980s. 


We moved there a year after these floods and thankfully never experienced anything as bad as this , although I do remember the high street flooding a couple of times. The local common and houses near to it were flooded quite regularly in the 70s. 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCqZwjT57UQ


 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2021 09:23:17


I'm nervously keeping an eye on this shallow low and its associated rain. We're off to Brixham in Devon for a week from Saturday. A Channel or Bay of Biscay low is far from ideal and could easily bring heavy showers to the east facing coast where we will be. The charts above don't look as bad as I expected for that part of the world although Sunday is showing up as very wet. 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Joe Bloggs
23 June 2021 21:17:43

Pretty happy with the output tonight, the best weather away from that pesky trough, but nice and settled for many areas. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_144_1.png


EPS has sunny weather and mid twenties here early next week , MetO slightly cooler but still sunny. 


This could change if the trough moves further north. After the great Joe Bloggs vs Moomin tiff of Monday this week I still maintain these charts are difficult to describe as “very poor” - but I take on board Tim’s very well thought out posts. 


 


 


 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

moomin75
24 June 2021 05:37:23

GFS and UKMO 0Z both keep that stubborn trough in the south. Yet more rain for many in what is fast becoming a write off summer down here.
I thought this would happen, and the longer term looks equally bad and I'm afraid summer 2021 for the Southern half of the UK will be a disappointment for those who crave dry weather.
Roll on winter, and, no doubt, another mild and zonal crap fest of wind and rain.


The climate in this country really is awful.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
24 June 2021 06:08:14
There’s still hope on most of the models this morning (though not GFS op), though the frustrating thing is the moment of improvement keeps being put back as the trough outstays its welcome. Things now drying out finally around 1-2 July whereas a couple of days ago the change was around the 29th.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
moomin75
24 June 2021 06:40:36

There’s still hope on most of the models this morning (though not GFS op), though the frustrating thing is the moment of improvement keeps being put back as the trough outstays its welcome. Things now drying out finally around 1-2 July whereas a couple of days ago the change was around the 29th.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Even ECM is still showing a shallow trough in the south as far out as 1 July.


Edit. In fact, the ECM joins the others in a largely unsettled pattern for the foreseeable future.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
24 June 2021 07:12:56


 


Even ECM is still showing a shallow trough in the south as far out as 1 July.


Edit. In fact, the ECM joins the others in a largely unsettled pattern for the foreseeable future.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


The truth is we have a North South divide for the next week at least and we are not used it it being this way round. 


ECM rainfall totals by next Thurs: 40-60mm across most of South and Midlands, worst in S Wales and the marches (80mm in Hereford), but 25mm in Manchester and Liverpool and 2mm in Glasgow. Less than 10mm over most of Ireland too.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 June 2021 07:22:18

Wx rainfall map shows rain still concentrated in the south along the Channel for week 1 (cf above)


Jet - bits swirling around the UK until something more powerful over France Sun 4th and becoming a loop around the UK over the following week


GFS Op - Although pressure generally high, the trough sits around the SW and then S  through this week and then there's another shallow trough pushed in from the Atlantic over Scotland Mon 5th. After that it settles down to W-lies with LP centre over Shetland Fri 9th


GEFs for the S - temps never far from norm, some tendency to rise later on though much uncertainty. Rain is around for the next couple of weeks, heaviest until Tue 29th. In the N temps also near norm but with a short dip at first; splash of rain tomorrow, then not much until after Mon 5th 


ECM - looks like GFS but when Atlantic pushes in on 5th, it does so further S - W-lies for all start earlier and cooler than GFS


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
David M Porter
24 June 2021 07:41:51


GFS and UKMO 0Z both keep that stubborn trough in the south. Yet more rain for many in what is fast becoming a write off summer down here.
I thought this would happen, and the longer term looks equally bad and I'm afraid summer 2021 for the Southern half of the UK will be a disappointment for those who crave dry weather.
Roll on winter, and, no doubt, another mild and zonal crap fest of wind and rain.


The climate in this country really is awful.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


'Write-off summer', eh?


It's only 24th June Kieren, not 24th August.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Tim A
24 June 2021 07:42:54


 


'Write-off summer', eh?


It's only 24th June Kieren, not 24th August.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


And a warm and dry one so far for many .


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Brian Gaze
24 June 2021 07:51:07


 


Even ECM is still showing a shallow trough in the south as far out as 1 July.


Edit. In fact, the ECM joins the others in a largely unsettled pattern for the foreseeable future.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


We have been spoiled in recent years. Even if climate change is turbo charged there is no reason to expect 37C every year! So far this summer has been mixed, but significantly warmer than average. I was in Carbis Bay last week and 5 of the 7 days brought virtually uninterrupted sunshine.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
24 June 2021 07:58:36

Rain yet to be determined but most ensembles looking very warm. 


 


 



 


 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
24 June 2021 08:02:34

I actually think the long term signals look pretty good for warm and sunny weather. This trough is causing headaches though but it will eventually bugger off. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
24 June 2021 08:38:40


 


We have been spoiled in recent years. Even if climate change is turbo charged there is no reason to expect 37C every year! So far this summer has been mixed, but significantly warmer than average. I was in Carbis Bay last week and 5 of the 7 days brought virtually uninterrupted sunshine.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

  In my neck of the woods, June has been very good!  only one day of rain and mid 20’s most days. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Bow Echo
24 June 2021 08:44:12


I actually think the long term signals look pretty good for warm and sunny weather. This trough is causing headaches though but it will eventually bugger off. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I would agree. The standing Rossby wave, whose trough we have been in is now weakening, and beginning to move east slowly, albeit having created that pesky cut off upper low. However much it spins its wheels it will eventually decline, but as it stagnates with increasing surface temp and still cool aloft..we could see some interesting storms in the next 3 to 5 days. Just my take, and probably will be proved wrong!! But that is the fun of the British weather!!


Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants


Weathermac
24 June 2021 10:20:24


GFS and UKMO 0Z both keep that stubborn trough in the south. Yet more rain for many in what is fast becoming a write off summer down here.
I thought this would happen, and the longer term looks equally bad and I'm afraid summer 2021 for the Southern half of the UK will be a disappointment for those who crave dry weather.
Roll on winter, and, no doubt, another mild and zonal crap fest of wind and rain.


The climate in this country really is awful.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Maybe to save stressing you need to emigrate Moomin the weather will do what it likes and sometimes at short notice so writing off summer after 23 days is ridiculous .

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
24 June 2021 10:21:19


I actually think the long term signals look pretty good for warm and sunny weather. This trough is causing headaches though but it will eventually bugger off. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I just hope that the GFS Op continues to be on the cool and wet side. It does show what could go wrong in that high pressure gets displaced north and south of the UK and allows low pressure areas to develop over us. Admittedly the ENS looks more promising. 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Saint Snow
24 June 2021 10:30:19


GFS and UKMO 0Z both keep that stubborn trough in the south. Yet more rain for many in what is fast becoming a write off summer down here.
I thought this would happen, and the longer term looks equally bad and I'm afraid summer 2021 for the Southern half of the UK will be a disappointment for those who crave dry weather.
Roll on winter, and, no doubt, another mild and zonal crap fest of wind and rain.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


You don't help yourself, do you?




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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