This isn't a dig at any seasonal forecast but I will never ever get sucked into by a seasonal forecast that is favouring cold.

It just shows how difficult our weather is to get right , Even the Met were forecasting Easterly winds and below average temps and look what happened to that.

BUT in saying that we still have Jan , Feb and March to turn our fortunes around.

so far 0/10 for me ..............................I'm still looking back at November and thinking about that sludge and muck 

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It did look promising with the MJO in a helpful phase, Easterly based QBO (which statistically leads to colder conditions and very rare if ever warmer than average winters(as tweeted by Marco P)), the ECM 46 day showed northern blocking and traditional medium range model output all looked good.  Then something went wrong , the ECM 46 flipped along with all the medium range models.  So yes I agree it's fickle and things can change so quickly...both ways . 

 

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I don't mind (in fact I quite like) grey and dank in December - as long as it's cold with it.

 

Like you say, this mild crap is horrible.

 

 

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You make a great point actually, slate grey and freezing cold is actually lovely in December. 

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Yes and La Nina favouring colder winters esp earlier on not to mention the rapid increase In siberian snow-cover as well as Arctic sea ice. Also we have had a rapid cooling of the SSTs in the NE Pacific. Yet we still get exceptionally mild weather and this isn't a one or two day affair it's 2 or so  weeks of above average temperatures which could be potentially record breaking. 

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Shame is not happening in summer as it would be 33-38C for a week long heatwave.  My heating bills this month is lower than last month despite they jack up the prices as I keep the room temps 20C so with mild weather mean less pressure on the boiler to run.  

Still I have to say 2021 as a year has been snowy here, there have been six falls of 6cm or more , including three good falls where snow built up during the day with no melting, until 24 hours later and lots of smaller snowfalls. Could have been very snowy if the Beast from the East had delivered significant snow rather than the odd cm here and there.

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The last fall of 6cm or more here was Boxing Day 2014.

We've had a multitude of [sh*te] falls that were below that (mostly 1-2cm), and almost all were short-lived.

 

Before BD 2014, we'd had at least 6 falls of +10cm in 5 winters (plus a few other thinner coverings).

 

 

 

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We have been lucky this year at times though being in the sweet spot and having just the height needed. 

But places like York are similar to your situation if not worse.  Always seems too warm for it to snow there now . Have a lot of family there and they have been amazed and jealous of our snow pics in 2021, the kids came over here on Boxing Day and were so excited to play in the slushy snow .  There might have been 70cm and 20 days plus of snow cover here this year and less than 5cm there(all in dustings), a ridiculous difference. Aside from some luck,  I fear the death of cold northerlies and entrenched cold is the reason. Everything is so marginal these days and you need to be at height and have to live somewhere where a variety of synoptics deliver to get any meaningful snowfall. You can't rely on Northerlies or Easterlies anymore.  And it will get worse for all of us. 

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Turned off all heating as well as opening all windows and still feel warm! I use to complain about high nighttime minimums in the summer and this is perhaps the first in history or as far as I can remember I will be complaining about high night time mins! Going to bed when it's 15c or so outside and waking up to 14c in the morning is very erratic. The Met Office have many questions to answer as to why the forecast was so inaccurate?!

Furthermore, just have a think of the havoc this would cause to the nature and our wildlife!? This crappy weather is despicable beyond belief- and worse of all we have more days of exceptionally mild and overcast drizzly, grey gunk! - can't remember this in winter 2015/16 and at least in December 205 and 2019 we had some frosty nights! I have to look back at the end of 27th November when we saw sleet in Tiverton.

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Could the Azores High please go away and leave us alone, but remember to come back in the summer so that we can get some decent weather from it then?

It is just ridiculous as well that we have had all of these various factors favouring a cold winter (easterly QBO, favourable position in the current solar cycle, weak to moderate La Nina amongst many other factors), yet we still can't get a cold winter here even with that.

With that in mind, last winter surely can't therefore be referred to as the teaser winter which it was built up to be at the time.

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It certainly seems that global warming/climate change is having more and more of an impact on our weather, it seems that the only way that the UK can get a decent cold spell is via a SSW. If this isn't on the cards it really isn't worth looking. With no such event on the cards it seems fleeting Northerlies are our best hope this winter but you can bet that in April when we are looking forward to spring, we have a cold spell 

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I really dislike Januarys now with the constant grey mild drizzle. As I child growing up in the Peak District  I can remember as clear as day going to bed feeling a little blue that the Christmas holidays were nearly over but remembering that we would get snow in the next few weeks and that always cheered me up.

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That's absolutely staggering to me. Even down here we've had several falls of snow exceeding 6cm since then. The 2 which immediately spring to mind are December 2017 and January 24th (?) this year.   

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In York in the 80s I used to think "Xmas decorations down, snow season starts". Seems like a fairy tale now. The other big difference now is there is no need to study teleconnections or background forcing mechanisms to make a confident forecast that 30C will be hit this summer.

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A  feature of higher ground inland, I think - in Dec 2017 I had to go 25 miles inland and 250m higher, to Hindhead, to find that sort of depth. The same applied in 2009 when a visit to Leith Hill near Dorking was needed - no snow to be seen until within a few miles of there.

Nothing in January this year near Chichester.

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January 24th this year was excellent for snow we were close on 10cm , watching cars struggle up the Oxford Road .

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Looking back through my pics, I can see nothing in December 2017.

Jan 24th this year, we had about 2cm (not that far away had 3-4cm), and this came after snow on 28th Dec 2020 (about the same depth, but only lasted a few days)

There's plenty of other falls I can see recorded in pictures, but they're all thin coverings of 1-4cm.

We've been unlucky with positioning.

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5.8 hours of sun in the past week and over half of that was recorded yesterday 

The second lowest total I have recorded for the final week of the year, when I am always off, after 4.6 hours in 2008. However only 1.0mm of rain in 2008 compared to 16.6mm this year 

All in all another dire festive period for weather and all the worse for following on from the direst periods for weekend weather I can ever remember.

1.58 hours daily sun was the average across the weekends of the final quarter - over half an hour less than the previous worst effort I recorded which was just last year and it was also well below the worst before that 

Years with lowest weekend sunshine for Oct-Dec:

2021 - 1.58

2020 - 2.09

2010 - 2.51

2015 - 2.55

So the two years I don’t get abroad for my autumn sunshine boost I was rewarded with the two vilest sets of weekends in at least 15 years as well as one of the worst ever festive periods. Just brilliant 

As for snow, pretty much given up even hoping for it. Just the two falls here of over 6cm since 2013. 8cm in March 2018 and 14cm this February 

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What happened on Jan 24th? I have a pic from that day but it is of a frozen ground, a half frozen lake and milky skies so presume the precipitation was further south . Our snowfall events came earlier in the month and then Feb 2nd.

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It was in the midst of a cold spell. I think Manchester got some snow (if it's the one I'm thinking of, where Joe B was pretty happy with his fall)

We took the dog to a big park/golf course we know south of Warrington, about 8 miles south of MBY and it was a little deeper there, probably 4-5cm (so still nothing to get excited about)

 

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 Going from my pics , we had a very very light covering at 08:24 , 20 minutes later the roads and paths were covered with a thin layer .By 08:57 it was hammering down and everywhere was covered . At 09:38 we were pushing 10cm 's and cars were getting stuck on the main Oxford Road 

 

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Yes.  Banbury snow. Heavy wet snow thick watery flakes falling and sticking was amazing but didn't last so long.?!.I saw your photos. 

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Chiltern effect? Apart from the Beast I haven't had any snow even settling since 2014 although places nearby have had brief  coverings.

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So much for the weather warning for today. Glad it wasn't for snow as there was heavy rain 20 miles north of here and 20 miles south but a gap formed over us and we got light rain and 0.8mm so not too scary!

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