December 2010 was notable enough in as much as it was the first month to record a sub-zero CET for almost 25 years (February 1986 was the last such month before then), and even more notable was that the last sub-zero CET December before 2010 was way back in 1890. It didn't produce any individual date records for cold as happened in January 1982 and December 1995, but that said, I'm not sure just how cold some people were actually expecting it to be!

It wasn't that many years before then when we were discussing on these threads from time to time whether a lengthy winter cold spell was even still possible in the UK, never mind a month which produced a sub-zero CET. If I had come onto this forum in 2006 (the year I joined), 2007 or 2008 and claimed that not many years later, we would see a month with a sub-zero CET (not to mention the previous winter which also produced a month-long major cold spell), I am pretty certain I would have been laughed out of here.

Further to the above, it's worth noting that December 2010 produced a slightly lower CET than January 1979 (Dec 2010 was -0.7C and Jan 1979 was -0.4C IIRC). It is worth noting too that Jan 1979 came during a generally severe winter and the coldest overall since 1962/63.

That is why I honestly cannot understand why some people were seemingly expecting December 2010 to be colder than it was, unless they were expecting the synoptics that prevailed that month to produce even colder weather than what we had. I would be interested to see where Dec 2010 sits in relation to other months which have produced sub-zero CETs since records began.

Like the one we didn’t have in 2020?

Summary: temp pattern remaining much as it has been for the last few days, i.e. all of Europe above seasonal norm (and very much so around the Urals); just a hint of something a little colder from the N in week 2. Rainfall in N Atlantic week 1 incl Scotland, unlike yesterday then splitting into two major areas, N Atlantic and Iberia, with England staying on the dry side.

Jet running N of Scotland to Fri 11th, the disappearing until Wed 16th and resuming over Iceland (not moving S as shown yesterday)

GFS - HP to the S and LP to the N until Fri 11th with mostly W-lies; HP collapsing for  while as weak troughs run across the UK but rebuilding strongly 1050mb Scottish border Wed 16th before moving SE to near Continent

GEFS - in the S cool around Sat 5th then mild to Sun 13th (good ens agreement) then mean near norm with spread of outcome, op & control being cold. Almost no rain; Fri 4th and then perhaps after Sun 13th. Similar temp trends in Scotland though with much less agreement, and some rain likely from Sat 5th onward, indeed, quite a lot in the NW

ECM like GFS but at end of run seems keener to hold troughs on Atlantic rather than pushing them E across Britain

Had my usual flick through the ECM ens data IMBY this morning and the higher temps resulting from HP locating more to the south of the UK than the south west or west are quite noticeable. A brief dip Friday night aside we're mostly looking at day time temps around the 10c mark, with night time temps generally 5-8c too, at least for the next week or so before usual spread in options arrives. Even then milder than average looks more likely than average or cool.

Down here at least it looks likely to be very dry too. Due to the wet summer and relatively wet autumn and December water table levels are presumably fine and can 'weather' a few dry months but could be a bit more interesting if the dry pattern persists through spring and into summer, even more so from a heat building point of view. 

Overall nothing particularly interesting on offer IMBY although dry and mild will be pleasant for the time of year as long as we get some sunshine with it. A prolonged gloomy spell would be irritating. 

I guess the question is if or when will the pattern change to something a little more promising for cold (down here) or if we're just going to wander in to spring with barely a whimper

Good summary. It also looks like cold "pub runs" are a thing of the past. So far there hasn't even been hope down here! Dry is always welcome this time of year in these muddy clay areas though. The wind of the last few days is actually starting to dry the ground now.

I guess for balance I should have mentioned Friday's snow risk, with areas North likely to see some snow showers down to lower levels for a time and even the possibility of some sleety stuff in the rainband as the cold front sinks south. 

Just a flicker of something on both GEFS and GEM suite of a shift longer term with more latitude on the high and potentially an easterly influence. Just a rumour in the wind but might be worth watching.

Yes, just a small flicker of interest on those GEFS 6z runs. Suggestions of something a little more seasonal circa 13th February thanks to a mid atlantic ridge from a few members driving down a northerly with one or two going for a Greeny high. 

Yes, an interesting looking GFS 12z op run so far.

Maybe, and admittedly it is a very big 'maybe', all hope for something a bit more seasonal is not yet completely extinguished.

so far this represents the biggest potential in FI i would say since, maybe early December.

astonishingly poor winter charts this year

Hmm the 18Z is actually interesting

Looks like Happy Hour is back on in the Pub Run. Of course it'll result in waking up with a sore head and a mouth tasting of old socks by tomorrow morning. 

Might be worth staying up for the ensembles though, to see if there is any agreement.

Yeh I can tell the 18Z ends with a stonker.

Is this a trend setter or an anomoly that will be gone tommorow?

Where have you been Q? We’ve been discussing this for at least the last, err, 5 hours 😂

Doing mental/moral contortions in UIA to defend this government.

Wouldn't go that far. A brief rise in heights to our north, before it's flattened by an Atlantic onslaught. Ends with a huge high over North Africa/Iberia/France, lows skimming the far north of the UK, and a high covering eastern Canada.

Nothing to get excited about, even in this cruddy winter. 

WX summary chart; not much change in temps, Europe as a whole above norm and cold well to the east; only Turkey on the map below norm. Rain staying in N Atlantic, plus just a splash in Iberia,  and England drier than shown yesterday for another two weeks.

Jet running close to N Scotland from time to time next week, after that a week with very little activity near Britain

GFS 0z - zonal W-lies for a week with HP to the S and LP to the N (occasional troughs may pass through; there's an interesting very local 995mb storm Shetland Thu 10th but I wouldn't bet on it being there in tomorrow's charts). After Thu 10th the HP shifts to become a rather variable ridge from the Azores NE-wards, tending to lie across England and up to Norway; and LP from Iberia across to Russia, this combination in deep FI (Sat 19th) bringing some cold air towards SE Europe.

GEFS - In the S cool now and around Thu 10th, mild between; after that mean near norm but little agreement between ens members, op & control on cold side, dry until 10th, some rain on  hit-and-miss basis after that. In the N temp profile similar though current cool spell lasts a few days longer; similar profile for rain in the NE but quite persistently wet in the NW

ECM very much like GFS

Seems to be a little more amplification projected in the medium term at the moment - doesn't lead to anything too exciting as the jet soon shunts the HP ridge back over us and into Europe but may mitigate the mildness on offer as the HP will presumably trap enough cold air over us and the near continent to depress temps somewhat even once the colder feed is cut off. All assuming the models don't change their minds and go flatter again

As down here things look rather ho hum for the foreseeable I was having a look at an interesting little LP that drifts down between NE Scotland and Norway:-

That all comes from a vigorous Atlantic LP that seems to get detached from the jet around the tip of Greenland a few days earlier with the mild sector mixed out and it then resumes it's journey and scoots past the North East of Scotland. Fun little feature and might enhance shower activity and/or bring a spell of snow for the Northern Isles?

Near term of course there's a shot of colder air incoming during Thursday with quite a rash of wintry showers for western area from Wales up and some strong winds too, so interesting enough for a reasonable slice of the country although nothing unusual for the time of year

It might well only be a temporary shift from the general westerly mobility but the period around the 10th - 12th Feb and the idea of a brief northerly incursion is gaining traction. -10C 850s wafting down the east coast will generate some interest, if only for a few days.

..and enough wobbles and kinks in the flow to suggest some troughiness.